[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 141805 RRA
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SAT SEP 14 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM INGRID AT 14/1800 UTC IS NEAR 20.9N
94.4W. THIS POSITION ALSO IS ABOUT 165 NM TO THE EAST OF TUXPAN
IN MEXICO. INGRID IS MOVING NORTHWARD 7 KNOTS. THE ESTIMATED
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS NEAR 988 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WIND SPEEDS ARE 60 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 75 KNOTS. PLEASE READ THE
PUBLIC ADVISORIES ABOUT INGRID THAT ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER
WTNT35 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT5...AND THE
FORECAST/ADVISORIES THAT ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT25 KNHC
AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCMAT5. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 19N TO 22N BETWEEN 92W AND 97W REACHING THE
COASTAL PLAINS OF MEXICO. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
IN THE COASTAL PLAINS AND COASTAL WATERS OF MEXICO FROM 22N TO
25N BETWEEN 90W AND 99W. BROAD SURFACE LOW PRESSURE EXTENDS AWAY
FROM THE AREA OF INGRID...TOWARD SOUTH FLORIDA. UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO THAT IS TO THE
SOUTH OF 26N TO THE EAST OF 90W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
SCATTERED MODERATE TO THE SOUTH OF 26N TO THE EAST OF 90W. THE
24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
14/1200 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN...ARE 1.58 IN VERACRUZ MEXICO
AND 0.19 IN MERIDA MEXICO.

THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE HUMBERTO AT 14/1500 UTC IS
NEAR 25.4N 35.4W. THE CYCLONE IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST 11 KNOTS.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB. THE MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 35 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 45 KNOTS.
PLEASE READ THE PUBLIC ADVISORIES ABOUT HUMBERTO THAT ARE ISSUED
UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT34 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT4...
AND THE FORECAST/ADVISORIES THAT ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER
WTNT24 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCMAT4. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 28N
TO 29N BETWEEN 34W AND 36W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE STILL IS MOSTLY IN AFRICA...ALONG 16W TO THE
SOUTH OF 20N...MOVING WEST 10 KNOTS. THE WAVE SHOWS UP WELL IN
THE LONG-TERM SATELLITE IMAGERY. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
SCATTERED STRONG FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 14W AND 17W. ISOLATED
TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG IS FROM 8N TO
16N BETWEEN 10W AND 14W.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SENEGAL NEAR 14N17W TO
11N20W 7N30W AND 7N33W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 7N33W TO 8N41W
7N44W 9N45W AND 10N47W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY
SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 120 NM
ON EITHER SIDE OF 14N17W 10N23W 6N30W 7N35W 5N42W 8N47W 12N52W
13N56W.

...DISCUSSION...

FROM THE U.S.A. EAST COAST AND THE U.S.A. COASTAL WATERS OF THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE U.S.A....
INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE U.S.A.
EAST COAST...TO 28N82W IN FLORIDA...TO 25N80W ALONG THE SOUTH-
EASTERN COAST OF FLORIDA. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT
PASSES THROUGH 32N78W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS NORTH
FLORIDA...THE NORTHEASTERN GULF WATERS...TO SOUTHEASTERN
LOUISIANA...AND BEYOND EAST TEXAS NORTHWESTWARD. BROKEN TO
OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION ARE TO THE NORTH OF 28N TO THE EAST OF 89W FOR
FLORIDA AND THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. SIMILAR CLOUDS ARE
TO THE NORTH OF THE LINE THAT STARTS NEAR 27N ALONG THE FLORIDA
EAST COAST...29N74W BEYOND 32N68W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 30N AND
NORTHWARD BETWEEN 70W AND 78W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION COVERS THE BAHAMAS AND SURROUNDING
WATERS TO THE SOUTH OF 28N TO THE WEST OF 70W.

THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 88W...

A LOW CLOUD CEILING IS OBSERVED AT THE ICAO STATIONS KGBK AND
KVAF. FAIR SKIES/CLEAR SKIES AT OR LOWER THAN 12000 FEET ARE
BEING REPORTED ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE AREA.

MULTILAYERED CLOUD CEILINGS AND RAIN ARE OBSERVED IN THE DEEP
SOUTH OF TEXAS. SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW CLOUDS AND SOME RAIN ARE
REPORTED IN THE MIDDLE TEXAS GULF COASTAL PLAINS. BROKEN LOW
LEVEL AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE REPORTED FROM THE HOUSTON
METROPOLITAN AREA SOUTHWESTWARD A BIT. SCATTERED TO BROKEN
MULTILAYERED CLOUD CEILINGS AND RAIN ARE AROUND THE SOUTHERN
SECTIONS OF LAKE PONTCHARTAIN. A CLOUD CEILING OF 7000 FEET IS
BEING REPORTED IN SLIDELL LOUISIANA. BROKEN LOW LEVEL AND HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS COVER SOUTHWESTERN ALABAMA...AND THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE FROM PANAMA CITY WESTWARD. DRIZZLE IS BEING REPORTED
IN THE PANAMA CITY AREA. MULTILAYERED CLOUD CEILINGS COVER
FLORIDA FROM BROOKSVILLE TO PARTS OF THE TAMPA METROPOLITAN
AREA. A HIGH CLOUD CEILING COVERS THE KEY WEST NAVAL AIR
STATION. FAIR SKIES/CLEAR SKIES AT OR LOWER THAN 12000 FEET ARE
BEING REPORTED ELSEWHERE IN THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF THE U.S.A.
GULF COAST STATES.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE
OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT TROPICAL
STORM INGRID.

THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
NEAR 15N72W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN...BETWEEN HISPANIOLA AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS
ISLANDS AND THE BAHAMAS...TO THE SOUTH OF 21N BETWEEN 66W AND
80W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY
STRONG BETWEEN 66W AND 80W...INCLUDING ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST
OF PUERTO RICO...IN PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN CUBA...AND POSSIBLY IN
THE SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS/COASTAL PLAINS OF THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC...AND IN THE WATERS THAT ARE BETWEEN CUBA...JAMAICA...
AND HAITI.

A 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 20N59W IN THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 18N59W 15N60W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG WITHIN A 60 NM RADIUS OF 22N58W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 150 NM ON EITHER
SIDE OF 24N54W 17N57W... TO 13N61W IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA
ISLANDS. RAINSHOWERS ALSO ARE POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHEASTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE SOUTH OF 14N TO THE EAST OF 65W.

THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
14/1200 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN...ARE 1.58 IN VERACRUZ MEXICO
0.19 IN MERIDA MEXICO...0.69 IN GUADELOUPE...AND 0.36 IN SAN
JUAN PUERTO RICO.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 9N74W IN COLOMBIA...9N80W IN
PANAMA...THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN NICARAGUA...THE WESTERN HALF OF
HONDURAS...INTO EASTERN GUATEMALA. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME OF
THE PRECIPITATION THAT IS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA MAY BE MORE RELATED TO THE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT
IS MOVING AROUND THE 15N72W MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS
THE CARIBBEAN SEA THAT IS TO THE WEST OF 80W...TO THE WEST OF
THE WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE 15N72W CYCLONIC CENTER.
SOME MEASURE OF BROAD SURFACE LOW PRESSURE EXTENDS TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA OF TROPICAL STORM INGRID...THAT IS IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...TOWARD THE AREA THAT
IS IN A SEMICIRCLE THAT ABOUT 120 NM AWAY FROM THE GULF OF
HONDURAS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 19N TO
20N BETWEEN 81W AND 84W. WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE
TO ISOLATED STRONG ELSEWHERE TO THE NORTH OF 10N TO THE WEST OF
80W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION WAS WEAKENING ALONG THE COAST OF
COLOMBIA NEAR 11N77W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGHS SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE
OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE 36-
HOUR FORECAST OF EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS LOWER
THAN 8 FEET FROM 12N TO 15N BETWEEN 65W AND 72W.

HISPANIOLA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
NEAR 15N72W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN...BETWEEN HISPANIOLA AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS
ISLANDS AND THE BAHAMAS...TO THE SOUTH OF 21N BETWEEN 66W AND
80W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY
STRONG BETWEEN 66W AND 80W...INCLUDING ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST
OF PUERTO RICO...IN PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN CUBA...AND POSSIBLY IN
THE SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS/COASTAL PLAINS OF THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC...AND IN THE WATERS THAT ARE BETWEEN CUBA...JAMAICA...
AND HAITI.

THE GFS FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL
COVER THE AREA FOR THE ENTIRE TIME. THE GFS FORECAST FOR 500 MB
SHOWS THAT AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL COVER HISPANIOLA FOR THE
FIRST 24 HOURS...AND FOR THE FIRST 12 HOURS OR SO OF THE SECOND
24 HOURS. THE TROUGH WILL SHIFT WESTWARD AWAY FROM HISPANIOLA.
THE TROUGH WILL BE REPLACED BY THE PERIPHERAL WIND FLOW THAT
WILL BE MOVING AROUND A RIDGE. THE GFS FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS
THAT THE CURRENT 15N72W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER WILL MOVE
NORTHWARD...CROSSING HISPANIOLA...AND EVENTUALLY OPENING INTO A
TROUGH...DURING THE COURSE OF THE 48 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 20N59W. A SURFACE TROUGH
IS ALONG 18N59W 15N60W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS
STRONG WITHIN A 60 NM RADIUS OF 22N58W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 150 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 24N54W 17N57W...
TO 13N61W IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ISLANDS. RAINSHOWERS ALSO
ARE POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE SOUTH OF
14N TO THE EAST OF 65W.

LARGE-SCALE MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW
COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE WEST OF 32N34W 11N45W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION
IS TO THE NORTH OF 26N BETWEEN 55W AND 63W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...FOR MORE
DETAILS ABOUT POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE HUMBERTO NEAR 25.4N 35.4W
1004 MB AT 1500 UTC SEP 14 MOVING W-NW OR 285 DEG AT 11 KT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT

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