[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT42 KNHC 121432
TCDAT2

TROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL072013
1100 AM AST THU SEP 12 2013

DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...DEEP CONVECTION HAS RE-DEVELOPED
NEAR THE CENTER OF GABRIELLE. GIVEN THE DISTANCE BETWEEN THE
CENTER AND THE CONVECTION...AND THE PRESENCE OF A CURVED CONVECTIVE
BAND TO THE EAST...IT IS ESTIMATED THAT THE WINDS ARE UP TO 35
KNOTS. THE TROPICAL STORM IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT...AND CONVECTION COULD EASILY BE REMOVED AGAIN. ON THAT
BASIS...GABRIELLE COULD EXPERIENCE SMALL FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO BEFORE IT BECOMES EXTRATROPICAL. THE
CYCLONE SHOULD THEN BECOME ABSORBED BY A LARGE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH
AS IT MOVES NEAR ATLANTIC CANADA.

GABRIELLE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT 8 KNOTS AHEAD
OF A DEVELOPING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES.
THIS PATTERN WILL FORCE GABRIELLE TO RECURVE AND TURN TO THE
NORTH-NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. THE NHC FORECAST
IS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE LATEST GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  12/1500Z 33.9N  67.7W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  13/0000Z 35.0N  67.9W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  13/1200Z 38.0N  67.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  14/0000Z 43.0N  64.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 48H  14/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER AVILA



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