[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 111155
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT WED SEP 11 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
TROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE IS CENTERED NEAR 32.4N 65.7W AT 11/1200
UTC OR ABOUT 46 NM W OF BERMUDA. THE SYSTEM IS NOW STATIONARY
AND HAS AN ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. SEE
LATEST NHC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WELL THE E OF THE LOW CENTER
FROM 31N-33N BETWEEN 61W-63W.

TROPICAL STORM HUMBERTO WAS UPGRADED TO HURRICANE AT 11/0900
UTC. HURRICANE HUMBERTO IS CENTERED NEAR 16.0N 28.9W AT 11/0900
UTC OR ABOUT 270 NM W-NW OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
MOVING N-NW AT 7 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 992
MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT.
SEE LATEST NHC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO
HEADERS MIATCPAT4/WTNT34 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.
SCATTERED/NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 45 NM OF THE
CENTER IN ALL QUADRANTS. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION
COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA FROM 14N-19N BETWEEN 26W-31W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 12N-14N BETWEEN 26W-34W.

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN IS PRODUCING
A LARGE AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE S GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 22N87W
OVER THE E COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ALONG 20N87W TO THE
COAST OF HONDURAS NEAR 16N88W. THE SURFACE TROUGH SHOULD MOVE
ACROSS THE YUCATAN TODAY AND ENTER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE ON THU.
SOME DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE AFTER THE SYSTEM EMERGES OVER WATER
AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY
WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER BELIZE... GUATEMALA...AND THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. SCATTERED/NUMEROUS STRONG
CONVECTION IS INLAND AND WITHIN 45 NM ALONG THE COAST OF BELIZE.
SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE
AREA FROM 16N-20N W OF 85W TO INLAND OVER THE YUCATAN. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DOT THE REMAINDER OF THE NW
CARIBBEAN FROM 16N-22N W OF 80W TO INLAND OVER CUBA...THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA...AND CENTRAL AMERICA.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

NONE.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 14N17W TO 13N20W THEN RESUMES SW OF HURRICANE HUMBERTO
NEAR 13N35W TO 9N45W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES INTO
SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 7N59W. THE MONSOON TROUGH CONTINUES TO BE
DISRUPTED BY HURRICANE HUMBERTO. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 75 NM LINE FROM 4N13W TO 10N16W AND WITHIN
60 NM OF LINE FROM 8N33W TO 6N42W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS N OF THE
ITCZ EXTENDING FROM 17N46W 18N53W TO 20N57W. THE LOW PREVIOUSLY
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH IS NO LONGER DISCERNIBLE. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM S OF THE
TROUGH W OF 51W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE
WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE REMAINDER OF THE TROUGH.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
THE SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH HAS MOVED N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. A
BROAD UPPER RIDGE NOW DOMINATES THE W GULF ANCHORED INLAND OVER
CENTRAL MEXICO. THE UPPER LOW ALONG THE E COAST OF FLORIDA
EXTENDS AN UPPER TROUGH ACROSS FLORIDA NEAR TAMPA COVERING THE E
GULF N OF 24N E OF 91W. THIS FLOW ALOFT IS NOW BEGINNING TO
INDUCE UPPER LOW IN THE SW GULF NEAR 22N93W. A WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH IS ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM TAMPICO TO VERACRUZ AT
11/0900 UTC. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ACROSS
THE SW GULF S OF 25N W OF 91W. ISOLATED SHOWERS DOT THE
REMAINDER OF THE S GULF S OF 26N. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A
1023 MB HIGH OVER WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA TO OVER THE N GULF.
SURFACE RIDGE WILL PERSIST THROUGH THU. THE SURFACE TROUGH IN
THE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY W-NW
ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TODAY AND ENTER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE
ON THU. A SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE TROUGH
OVER THE SW GULF LATER IN THE WEEK THEN INTENSIFY SLOWLY THROUGH
SUN AS IT DRIFTS NW. THE LOW COULD POSSIBLY DEVELOP INTO A
TROPICAL CYCLONE.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER RIDGE IS ANCHORED OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN COVERING THE
AREA W OF 74W TO JUST ACROSS CUBA. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 11N-16N BETWEEN 73W-82W. THE REMAINDER OF
ACTIVITY IN THE NW CARIBBEAN AND THE SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE
YUCATAN ARE IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. THE MONSOON TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM COLOMBIA NEAR 9N76W OVER COSTA RICA NEAR 9N81W THEN
NW OVER NICARAGUA. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE S OF 11N
BETWEEN COLOMBIA AND COSTA RICA. AN UPPER LOW IS IN THE E
CARIBBEAN NEAR 15N69W WITH THE UPPER TROUGH COVERING THE
REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE INLAND
OVER THE YUCATAN TODAY. OTHERWISE LITTLE CHANGE THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK.

HISPANIOLA...
SKIES ARE CLEAR ACROSS THE ISLAND THIS MORNING. THE UPPER TROUGH
CURRENTLY COVERING THE E CARIBBEAN WILL SHIFT W BY THU.
CLOUDINESS WILL THEN GRADUALLY INCREASE WITH LOW LEVEL SHOWERS
AND THE POTENTIAL ONCE AGAIN FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE PRIMARY CONCERNS FOR THE ATLC BASIN TONIGHT ARE TROPICAL
STORM GABRIELLE IN THE W ATLC AND HURRICANE HUMBERTO IN THE E
ATLC. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. AN UPPER LOW IS CENTERED OFF
THE E COAST OF FLORIDA NEAR DAYTONA BEACH WITH AN UPPER TROUGH
COVERING THE W ATLC N 24N W OF 70W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE W ATLC FROM 21N-33N W OF 72W
INCLUDING THE BAHAMA ISLANDS. AN UPPER LOW REMAINS IN THE
E/CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 24N44W BUT IS NOT PRODUCING ANY SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A WEAK
SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1033 MB HIGH WELL N OF THE AZORES. A
WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE MOST OF THE ATLC.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE
VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW/NR


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