[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 102345
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT TUE SEP 10 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
TROPICAL STORM HUMBERTO IS CENTERED NEAR 15.0N 28.1W AT 10/2100
UTC OR 210 NM W OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS MOVING NW
AT 7 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 993 MB. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 11N-16N BETWEEN 24W-33W. SEE LATEST
NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT4/WTNT24
KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

TROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE IS CENTERED NEAR 31.9N 64.9W AT 11/0000
UTC OR 25 NM SSW OF BERMUDA MOVING N AT 9 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 50
KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
29N-34N BETWEEN 57W-65W. SEE LATEST NHC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 KNHC
AND THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 18N47W TO 22N50W MOVING W AT 10-15
KT. A 1012 MB LOW IS CENTERED AT THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE WAVE
NEAR 18N47W WITH AN ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTIVE BURST IN THE
VICINITY OF 18N46W. TO THE NW OF THE LOW CENTER...WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OCCURRING FROM 18N-21N BETWEEN
49W-54W. THE WAVE CONTINUES TO REMAINS WEAK WITH GLOBAL MODELS
INDICATING A WEAK TROUGH WILL IMPACT THE LESSER ANTILLES OVER
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND BRINGING INCREASED SHOWER AND TSTM ACTIVITY
TO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 09N41W TO
09N54W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 06N-09N BETWEEN 46W-
53W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM OVER EASTERN TEXAS NEAR
31N96W S-SE TO A BASE OVER THE WESTERN GULF NEAR 23N93W. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES AN AREA OF MAXIMUM MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE LIES EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS AND IS GENERATING WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN
GULF W OF 89W THIS EVENING. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS ALSO
ANALYZED NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE MEXICO COAST FROM 20N95W TO
24N98W PROVIDING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND INCREASED
AREAL COVERAGE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS FROM 20N-26N
BETWEEN 96W-99W. FARTHER EAST...A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
CENTERED OVER THE SW NORTH ATLC NEAR 29N79W AND CONTINUES TO
PROVIDE OVERALL DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS ALOFT ON ITS WESTERN
PERIPHERY OVER A LARGE PORTION OF THE EASTERN GULF. A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE HOWEVER OCCURRING ACROSS THE FAR
SW FLORIDA PENINSULA AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS FROM 25N-26N
EAST OF 83W. LOOKING AHEAD...A SURFACE TROUGH...CURRENTLY
ANALYZED OFF THE COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA IN THE NW
CARIBBEAN SEA...IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DRIFTING WESTWARD AND
INTO THE SW GULF BY LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THIS SURFACE
TROUGHING IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP INTO A LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER
THE SW GULF AND INCREASE SE WINDS ON ITS EASTERN PERIPHERY
GENERALLY W OF 90W OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND INTO MONDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN AND
IS PROVIDING FOR AN OVERALL DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT FOR MUCH OF
THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN THIS EVENING. AS A RESULT...SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS COVER A LARGE PORTION OF THE BASIN W OF 75W.
ONE CONCENTRATED AREA OF STRONG CONVECTION IS OCCURRING ACROSS
JAMAICA AND IN THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS FROM 13N-21N BETWEEN
76W-81W. FARTHER WEST...A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM
COASTAL HONDURAS NEAR 15N87W TO 21N86W AND CONTINUES TO PROVIDE
FOCUS FOR SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG TSTMS FROM 14N-22N
BETWEEN 84W-92W...INCLUDING INTERIOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA
GENERALLY NW OF NICARAGUA. FINALLY...OVER THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 13N65W AND
CONTINUES TO MOVE WESTWARD. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT
MAINLY DRY AIR ALOFT ACCOMPANIES THIS FEATURE...HOWEVER A SMALL
AMOUNT OF MOISTURE IS ADVECTING NORTHWARD ON THE EASTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. INCREASED CLOUDINESS IS NOTED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY E OF 65W WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED LOW-TOPPED
SHOWERS OCCURRING ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES THIS EVENING.

HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING OVER
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE ISLAND...HOWEVER THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC
PATTERN IS DOMINATED BY AN UPPER LEVEL LOW AND ASSOCIATED UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AXIS APPROACHING FROM THE EAST WITH THE LOW
CENTERED NEAR 13N65W. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES MODERATE TO
STRONG DRY AND STABLE AIR MOVING OVERHEAD WHICH WILL PROVIDE FOR
FAIRLY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. ONCE THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS PASSES TO THE WEST OF HISPANIOLA LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...CLOUDINESS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE
WITH LOW-TOPPED SHOWERS AND THE POTENTIAL ONCE AGAIN FOR
AFTERNOON AND EVENING TSTMS TO OCCUR.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE SW NORTH ATLC
NEAR 29N79W. WHILE THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURE DOES NOT SUPPORT ANY
SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS ARE
SUPPORTING ENHANCED CLOUDINESS AND WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED TSTMS OCCURRING FROM 21N-32N BETWEEN 70W-81W...
INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS AND THE NORTHERN ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS
OF CUBA THIS EVENING. FARTHER EAST...GABRIELLE CONTINUES TO
TRACK NORTHWARD BETWEEN 60W-70W. THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE
ANCHORED BY A 1035 MB HIGH CENTERED NW OF THE AZORES NEAR 42N33W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN


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