[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 101150
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT TUE SEP 10 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
THE REMNANT 1009 MB LOW OF GABRIELLE REGENERATED INTO A TROPICAL
STORM AT 10/0900 UTC. TROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE IS CENTERED NEAR
29.9N 64.9W AT 10/1200 UTC OR ABOUT 143 NM S OF BERMUDA MOVING N
AT 12 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. SEE LATEST
NHC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. THE
10/0600 UTC ANALYSIS SHOWS A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM N
OF BERMUDA NEAR 24N65W THROUGH THE LOW TO 23N70W. THIS SURFACE
TROUGH WILL BE DROPPED AT 10/1200 UTC. NUMEROUS MODERATE/STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 27N-32N BETWEEN 60W-65W. SCATTERED MODERATE/
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM OF LINE FROM 28N63W
TO 25N68W.

TROPICAL STORM HUMBERTO IS CENTERED NEAR 14.4N 26.6W AT 10/0900
UTC OR ABOUT 130 NM W OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
MOVING W-NW AT 8 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998
MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
SEE LATEST NHC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO
HEADERS MIATCPAT4/WTNT34 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.
NUMEROUS /SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN A 45 NM RADIUS
OF 14N26.5W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION COVERS THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA FROM 10N-15N BETWEEN 25W-32W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL ATLC IS ANALYZED FROM 23N46W
THROUGH A 1014 MB LOW NEAR 18N45W TO 17N44W. THE WAVE/LOW HAS
BEEN MOVING W-NW 10-15 KT FOR THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE WAVE/LOW
ARE EMBEDDED WITHIN A SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 75 NM W OF THE LOW AND WITHIN 60 NM
OF LINE FROM 18N48W TO 20N51W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 23N94W
ACROSS S MEXICO NEAR 18N94W INTO THE E PACIFIC REGION. WAVE HAS
BEEN MOVING W NEAR 10 KT FOR THE PAST 24 HOURS. WAVE IS EMBEDDED
WITHIN AN AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE THAT COVERS THE CARIBBEAN AND
GULF OF MEXICO AS DEPICTED ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY.
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE INLAND AND WITHIN
75 NM ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO BETWEEN 93W-95W.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA TO THE COAST OF
MAURITANIA. THE ITCZ BEGINS SW OF HUMBERTO NEAR 9N38W ALONG
8N52W TO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 9N61W. THE MONSOON TROUGH HAS BEEN
DISRUPTED BY TROPICAL STORM HUMBERTO. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 6N-10N BETWEEN 18W-
23W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 5N-9N
BETWEEN 32W-50W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL TEXAS INTO THE
GULF BETWEEN CORPUS CHRISTI AND GALVESTON TO 24N94W. THE UPPER
TROUGH IN THE W ATLC EXTENDS W ACROSS FLORIDA ACROSS WEST PALM
BEACH TO NAPLES INTO THE GULF TO 23N86W. THIS IS INDUCING UPPER
RIDGE THAT EXTENDS FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO OVER S/CENTRAL
LOUISIANA. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE
W GULF W OF LINE FROM GALVESTON TEXAS ALONG 26N90W INTO THE BAY
OF CAMPECHE AND S MEXICO NEAR 18N92W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE S OF 25N E OF 90W INCLUDING
THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS. WEAK SURFACE RIDGE
COVERS THE NE GULF. SURFACE RIDGE WILL PREVAIL OVER THE N GULF
COAST STATES THROUGH SAT. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP OVER THE SW GULF BY WED AND LINGER THROUGH SAT WITH
THE POSSIBILITY OF IT DEVELOPING INTO A MORE IDENTIFIABLE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS ALONG 18N ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA TO 70W.
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE NE TIP OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA ALONG 19N87W TO THE COAST OF HONDURAS NEAR 16N86W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF 16N W OF 78W
AND WITHIN 120/150 NM OF LINE FROM 16N77W TO OVER COLOMBIA NEAR
11N75W. THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM COLOMBIA NEAR 10N75W
ALONG 9N81W TO OVER COSTA RICA AND NICARAGUA NEAR 11N84W
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS INLAND AND
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST OF W PANAMA AND COSTA RICA. AN UPPER
LOW IS IN THE SE CARIBBEAN NEAR 13N62W WITH THE UPPER TROUGH
COVERING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 10N-16N BETWEEN 55W-64W
INCLUDING TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS
WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND E CARIBBEAN THROUGH THU
WHILE GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE W
CARIBBEAN.

HISPANIOLA...
CLOUD COVER  WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS REMAIN ACROSS THE
ISLAND THIS MORNING. THE UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE E PORTION OF
THE ISLAND AND WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK W THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK USHERING IN A SLIGHTLY DRIER AIRMASS. HOWEVER...EXPECT THE
DAILY SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO
POSSIBLY DEVELOP.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE PRIMARY CONCERNS FOR THE ATLC BASIN THIS MORNING ARE
TROPICAL STORM HUMBERTO IN THE E ATLC AND TROPICAL STORM
GABRIELLE IN THE W ATLC. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. AN UPPER
TROUGH COVERS W ATLC WITH AN UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR 28N77W AND
EXTENDING A TROUGH AXIS ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO
NEAR WEST PALM BEACH. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS DOT THE W ATLC WITHIN 200 NM OF LINE FROM CUBA
NEAR 22N78W TO 32N73W INCLUDING THE BAHAMA ISLANDS. AN UPPER LOW
IS IN THE E/CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 29N43W GENERATING SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 27N-31N BETWEEN 40W-45W. THE
REMAINDER OF THE ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED
BY A 1033 MB HIGH N OF THE AZORES. TROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE WILL
MOVE N OF THE AREA TONIGHT. A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WILL PREVAIL
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE AREA.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE
VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW/NR


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