[Tropical] Tropical Weather Outlook and Summary

[EMWIN Server]

ABNT20 KNHC 091154
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT MON SEP 9 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON RECENTLY
UPGRADED TROPICAL STORM HUMBERTO...LOCATED SOUTH OF THE
SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.

AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF
GABRIELLE...IS LOCATED ABOUT 500 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF BERMUDA.
STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLY WINDS ARE DISPLACING SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO THE EAST OF THE LOW...AND SIGNIFICANT
DEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS WHILE THE LOW
MOVES NORTHEASTWARD OR NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD.  THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW
CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

OTHER SYSTEMS WITH DEVELOPMENT POTENTIAL BEYOND 48 HOURS...

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE COULD FORM OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE OR
THE EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO IN A FEW DAYS.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS SHOULD BE CONDUCIVE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT
OF THIS LOW AROUND THAT TIME IF IT REMAINS OVER WATER. THIS SYSTEM
HAS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. REGARDLESS OF
DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF
EASTERN MEXICO LATER THIS WEEK.

&&

PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL STORM HUMBERTO ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO
HEADER WTNT34 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT4.
FORECAST/ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL STORM HUMBERTO ARE ISSUED UNDER
WMO HEADER WTNT24 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCMAT4.

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

HTTP://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?CODE=ETWO

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

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