[Tropical] Tropical Weather Outlook and Summary

[EMWIN Server]

ABNT20 KNHC 052151
TWOAT

SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
555 PM EDT THU SEP 5 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SPECIAL OUTLOOK ISSUED TO PROVIDE AN UPDATE ON SYSTEM IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO.

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
DEPRESSION GABRIELLE...LOCATED NEAR THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.

UPDATED...AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATED
THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 150 MILES EAST OF
TAMPICO MEXICO AND DID NOT FIND A WELL-DEFINED CENTER OF
CIRCULATION.  IN ADDITION...THE ASSOCIATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE NOT BECOME ANY BETTER ORGANIZED OVER THE PAST
SEVERAL HOURS.  SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS STILL
POSSIBLE...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM BEFORE THE LOW
MOVES INLAND ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO ON FRIDAY.  THIS SYSTEM HAS
A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.  REGARDLESS OF
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION...HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST OF THE MEXICAN STATES OF VERACRUZ AND
TAMAULIPAS THROUGH FRIDAY.

A LARGE AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ASSOCIATED
WITH A SURFACE TROUGH...EXTENDS FROM THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
NEAR TROPICAL DEPRESSION GABRIELLE NORTHWARD OVER THE ATLANTIC
WATERS FOR SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES. ANY DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO BE SLOW DUE TO STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS. THIS SYSTEM
HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.
SOME DEVELOPMENT COULD ALSO OCCUR IN A FEW DAYS WHEN THE SYSTEM
MOVES NORTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
OCEAN. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 500 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE
VERDE ISLANDS IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS.
DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...IS EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED DUE TO DRY
AIR...AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME VERY
UNFAVORABLE IN A COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...
10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS...AND A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS WHILE IT MOVES TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST
AT ABOUT 10 MPH.

OTHER SYSTEMS WITH FORMATION POTENTIAL BEYOND 48 HOURS...

A TROPICAL WAVE OVER AFRICA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE FAR EASTERN
ATLANTIC OCEAN IN A COUPLE OF DAYS...AND DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A MEDIUM CHANCE...30
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

&&

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

HTTP://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?CODE=ETWO

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/BRENNAN

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