[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT42 KNHC 052036
TCDAT2

TROPICAL DEPRESSION GABRIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL072013
500 PM AST THU SEP 05 2013

GABRIELLE IS BEING GENEROUSLY MAINTAINED AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE AT
THIS TIME...AS THERE IS JUST ENOUGH OF A CIRCULATION AND ORGANIZED
CONVECTION TO KEEP IT FROM BEING DECLARED A REMNANT LOW.  THE
CYCLONE REMAINS VERY BADLY ORGANIZED...WITH THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER
NOW SEPARATED FROM THE MID-LEVEL CENTER BY ABOUT 180 N MI.  THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS REDUCED TO 25 KT BASED ON EARLIER
SCATTEROMETER DATA...AND THE CENTRAL PRESSURE IS NEAR 1010 MB BASED
ON MULTIPLE SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.

WHILE CONVECTION CONTINUES NEAR THE MID-LEVEL CENTER...THERE ARE NO
SIGNS AT THIS TIME THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS TRYING TO RE-FORM
THERE.  IF THAT DOES NOT OCCUR...GABRIELLE IS EXPECTED TO
DEGENERATE TO A REMNANT LOW PRESSURE AREA AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE
TERRAIN OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...ENCOUNTERS INCREASING WESTERLY
SHEAR...AND MOVES INTO A DRIER AIR MASS.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST
CONTINUES TO CALL FOR THE CYCLONE TO COMPLETELY DISSIPATE AFTER 24
HOURS.  IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE DYNAMICAL MODELS FORECAST A LOW
PRESSURE AREA TO DEVELOP SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST OF BERMUDA DURING THE
NEXT 2-4 DAYS.  WHETHER THIS WILL VERIFY...AND WHETHER THE LOW
DEVELOPS FROM THE REMNANTS OF GABRIELLE OR FROM ANOTHER DISTURBANCE
TO ITS NORTHEAST...IS UNCLEAR AT THIS TIME.

THE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS 305/8.  LOW-LEVEL RIDGING NORTH AND
NORTHEAST OF GABRIELLE SHOULD ALLOW A MOTION TOWARD THE NORTHWEST
OR NORTH-NORTHWEST TO OCCUR UNTIL THE CYCLONE DISSIPATES.

A HEAVY RAIN THREAT CONTINUES OVER PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  05/2100Z 18.2N  68.6W   25 KT  30 MPH
 12H  06/0600Z 19.2N  69.3W   25 KT  30 MPH
 24H  06/1800Z 20.8N  70.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  07/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN


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