[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 042359
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT WED SEP 04 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN IS CENTERED NEAR 16.5N 66.2W AT
04/2100 UTC OR ABOUT 130 MI...210 KM S OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
... OR ABOUT 205 MI...330 KM SE OF PUNTA CANA DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
MOVING NW AT 8 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1009
MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
SEE THE LATEST INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO
HEADERS MIA TCPAT2/WTNT32 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PUERTO RICO AND
PORTIONS OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO FIRST REACH THE COAST OF PUERTO RICO OVERNIGHT
...AND REACH THE WARNING AREA IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BY
MIDDAY THURSDAY. THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF PUERTO
RICO...THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 10
INCHES POSSIBLE IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. THESE HEAVIER
AMOUNTS COULD RESULT IN DANGEROUS FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES
OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. PRESENTLY SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 14N-20N BETWEEN 62W-68W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS W OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
FROM 18N27W TO AN EMBEDDED 1011 MB LOW AT 13N28W TO 8N28W MOVING
W AT 12 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 14N-17N
BETWEEN 26W-29W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF THE
REMAINDER OF THE WAVE AXIS.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 23N47W TO 16N48W TO
10N46W MOVING W AT 20 KNOTS. THE WAVE IS WELL DIPICTED ON SSMI
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN
120 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS.

AN E CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 23N60W TO 10N60W
MOVING W AT 10 KNOTS. THE WAVE IS WELL DIPICTED ON SSMI TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION IS OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS FROM 16N-22N BETWEEN 57W-
62W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
FROM 10N-16N BETWEEN 57W-61W.

A CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM E CUBA AT 21N76W
TO THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA AT 10N77W MOVING W AT 15 KT.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO E OF THE WAVE AXIS OVER N COLOMBIA
FROM 11N-13N BETWEEN 72W-74W.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF SENEGAL AT 14N17W
TO 13N28W TO 9N39W. AN ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 9N39W TO 10N48W TO
13N55W. BESIDES THE CONVECTION MENTIONED WITH THE TROPICAL
WAVES...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND
OVER WEST AFRICA FROM 10N-19N BETWEEN 10W-17W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1009 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER S MEXICO NEAR 18N91W. A SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDS N FROM THE LOW TO THE W GULF OF MEXICO ALONG
22N93W 26N93W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA...THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...AND THE W GULF FROM 16N-28N
BETWEEN 90W-99W. FURTHER N...A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS OVER THE
NORTH GULF STATES E OF E TEXAS. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
INLAND FROM 29N-32N BETWEEN 81W-97W. THE E GULF HAS WEAK SURFACE
RIDGING ALONG 25N. 5-10 KT SURFACE WINDS ARE NOTED. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE. THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE NE GULF.
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS NOTED OVER THE SE GULF. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE SE GULF...FLORIDA...AND W CUBA.
EXPECT...THE SURFACE LOW TO MOVE FROM S MEXICO TO THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE AT 22N95W IN 24 HOURS WITH CONVECTION.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN IS OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. SEE
ABOVE. A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA. SEE
ABOVE. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION DOTS MOST OF THE REMAINDER
OF THE  CARIBBEAN SEA AND CENTRAL AMERICA BASICALLY W OF
83W...OVER CUBA...OVER JAMAICA...AND OVER HISPANIOLA...AND ALONG
THE COAST OF VENEZUELA FROM 10N-12N BETWEEN 68W-70W. MOREOVER
...A MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM N COLOMBIA TO COSTA RICA WITH
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION S OF 10N. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A
SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED S OF JAMAICA NEAR 17N80W
ENHANCING CONVECTION OVER HISPANIOLA AND E CUBA. EXPECT T.D.
SEVEN TO BE THE DOMINATE WEATHER PRODUCER IN THE CARIBBEAN OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION AND AN INCREASE
OF CONVECTION. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE ELSEWHERE.

HISPANIOLA...

SATELLITE IMAGERY AND LIGHTNING DETECTION SHOWS ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION AND SHOWERS OVER HAITI MOSTLY DUE TO AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED S OF JAMAICA. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS FOR EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TO HAVE UP
TO 10 INCHES OF RAIN IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. THESE
HEAVIER AMOUNTS COULD RESULT IN DANGEROUS FLASH FLOODS AND MUD
SLIDES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. HAITI IS EXPECTED TO HAVE
SIGNIFICANTLY LESS RAIN ON THE LEE SIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE N BAHAMAS AND THE W ATLANTIC W OF
77W. 1026 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 33N47W WITH
SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDING WSW TO CENTRAL FLORIDA. ANOTHER 1027
MB HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 36N29W. OF NOTE IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...TWO UPPER LEVEL LOWS ARE CENTERED NE OF THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS NEAR 28N61W...AND 25N45W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
FOR T.D. SEVEN AND THE TROPICAL WAVES TO BE THE DOMINATE SOURCE
OF CONVECTION OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA


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