[Tropical] Tropical Weather Outlook and Summary

[EMWIN Server]

ABNT20 KNHC 021731
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT MON SEP 2 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ACROSS THE LESSER
ANTILLES AND INTO THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC. ALTHOUGH UPPER-LEVEL WINDS
ARE FAVORABLE...THE PROXIMITY OF DRY AIR IN THE MIDDLE LEVELS OF
THE ATMOSPHERE HAS BEEN INHIBITING DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE.
HOWEVER...CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY BECOME MORE
CONDUCIVE WHILE THE SYSTEM MOVES MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND
10 MPH NEAR PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A MEDIUM CHANCE...50
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
REGARDLESS OF WHETHER OR NOT A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMS...BRIEF
PERIODS OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA AND
BELIZE IS MOVING WESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE LATE TUESDAY...WHERE SOME
DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE AROUND MIDWEEK. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW
CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

A TROPICAL WAVE...ACCOMPANIED BY A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...HAS MOVED
OFF OF THE WEST COAST OF AFRICA ABOUT 650 MILES SOUTHEAST OF THE
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. THIS DISTURBANCE IS BEGINNING TO SHOW SOME SIGNS
OF ORGANIZATION...AND ENVIRONMETAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WHILE
THE LOW MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.
THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...
OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

&&

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

HTTP://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?CODE=ETWO

$$
FORECASTER STEWART


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