[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 311741
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT THU OCT 31 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS FROM 20N85W TO INLAND
OVER CENTRAL AMERICA NEAR 15N85W MOVING W 15-20 KT. WAVE IS
BENEATH AN UPPER RIDGE WHICH IS ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 18N W OF 85W.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 6N10W AND CONTINUES TO 4N17W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES ALONG 4N22W 7N37W 5N49W TO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 5N53W.
CLUSTER OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE
FROM 3N-7N BETWEEN 10W-20W AND FROM 8N-12N BETWEEN 17W-21W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE AREA ANCHORED IN THE SW GULF
NEAR 21N95W AND EXTENDS OVER THE W ATLC AND W CARIBBEAN.
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING OFF TEXAS
AND LOUISIANA AHEAD OF A FRONT THAT IS WELL INLAND WITHIN 45 NM
ALONG THE COAST FROM VERMILION BAY LOUISIANA TO BROWNSVILLE
TEXAS. ISOLATED SHOWERS DOT THE AREA N OF 23N W OF 93W. THE
SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1022 MB HIGH OVER SOUTH
CAROLINA/GEORGIA EXTENDS OVER BETWEEN CEDAR KEY AND TAMPA TO
24N90W. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF UNDER MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES THIS AFTERNOON. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE TEXAS
COAST LATER TODAY REACHING FROM SE LOUISIANA TO SE TEXAS EARLY
FRI FROM NORTH FLORIDA TO W BAY OF CAMPECHE EARLY SAT THEN SE OF
THE AREA BY EARLY SUN. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REBUILD OVER THE GULF
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO COVERS THE W
CARIBBEAN W OF A LINE FROM CUBA NEAR 21N77W TO PANAMA/COSTA RICA
BORDER. THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE W ATLC IS BECOMING CUT OFF
OVER THE CARIBBEAN AND THE TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM HISPANIOLA
THROUGH AN UPPER LOW NEAR 14N72W TO COLOMBIA/PANAMA BORDER. A
SHEAR LINE EXTENDS FROM THE W/CENTRAL ATLC TO THE E TIP OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT E OF THE UPPER TROUGH
COUPLED WITH A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS NEAR 17N62W TO THE COAST OF VENEZUELA NEAR 11N64W ARE
ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SPREADING
ACROSS THE AREA FROM 10N-17N E OF 73W TO OVER THE LESSER
ANTILLES. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES THIS AFTERNOON. TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE W OF THE AREA FRI.
SURFACE TROUGH IN THE E CARIBBEAN WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN TONIGHT WHERE IT WILL STALL AND LINGER THROUGH MON. A
WEAK LOW MAY FORM ALONG THE TROUGH.

HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER NE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC DUE TO THE SHEAR LINE. SURFACE TROUGH IN THE
E CARIBBEAN WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TONIGHT WHERE
IT WILL STALL AND LINGER THROUGH MON. THIS WILL INCREASE
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AS THE SURFACE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE
ISLAND THIS WEEKEND.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE UPPER RIDGE OVER OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS OVER THE W
ATLC TO 72W. AN UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC
INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC THEN ACROSS HISPANIOLA INTO THE CARIBBEAN
SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE AREA NEAR 32N50W TO
27N57W WHERE IT BECOMES A SHEAR LINE ALONG 19N65W TO THE E TIP
OF HISPANIOLA. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE SHEAR LINE E
OF 66W. A SURFACE RIDGE IS BUILDING S OVER THE W ATLC IN WAKE OF
THE RECENT FRONT ANCHORED BY A 1027 MB HIGH N OF BERMUDA. A
SURFACE TROUGH IS E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES EXTENDING FROM 15N53W
TO 8N53W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WITHIN 45 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH. THE REMAINDER OF THE
ATLC BASIN IS DOMINATED BY A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A PAIR OF
1027 MB HIGHS NEAR THE AZORES. THE SHEAR LINE WILL DISSIPATE
THROUGH SAT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF SE CONUS LATE FRI NIGHT
INTO EARLY SAT. THE COLD FRONT WILL REACH FROM NEAR 31N75W TO SE
FLORIDA BY SAT EVENING FROM NEAR BERMUDA TO E CUBA BY LATE SUN
BEFORE MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC MON.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW

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