[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 310558
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT THU OCT 31 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0530 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM 19N79W TO 10N80W AND DRIFTING WEST AT ABOUT 10
KT. THE WAVE CONTINUES EMBEDDED WITHIN A MOSTLY MODERATE MOIST
ENVIRONMENT AS DEPICTED ON THE SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
IMAGERY. STRONG NORTHERLY WIND SHEAR IN THIS REGION OF THE BASIN
IS HINDERING DEEP CONVECTION. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 130 NM
EITHER SIDE OF ITS AXIS.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 09N13W AND CONTINUES TO 06N20W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS
AND CONTINUES ALONG 07N35W TO 07N46W 05N52W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM BETWEEN 21W-25W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
SURFACE RIDGING CONTINUES TO DOMINATE ACROSS THE GULF WATERS
ANCHORED BY A 1025 MB HIGH OVER THE NW ATLC NEAR 37N68W. SURFACE
RIDGING IS BEING REINFORCED BY A BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE CENTERED IN THE SW GULF IN THE UPPER LEVELS. SSMI TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOW VERY DRY AIR
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF WHICH IS SUPPRESSING
CONVECTION...THUS SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER. SOUTHWESTERLY WIND
FROM THE UPPER RIDGE IS ADVECTING VERY MOIST AIR FROM THE E
PACIFIC INTO THE WESTERN BASIN WHICH IS CONTRIBUTING TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS OFFSHORE THE NORTHERN GULF N OF
27N. SURFACE RIDGING IS FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE TEXAS COAST
FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING DOMINATES THE WESTERN BASIN WHERE
A TROPICAL WAVE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 19N79W TO 10N80W. THE WAVE IS
EMBEDDED WITHIN A MOSTLY MODERATE MOIST ENVIRONMENT AS DEPICTED
ON THE SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. STRONG NORTHERLY
WIND SHEAR IN THIS REGION OF THE BASIN IS HINDERING DEEP
CONVECTION. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 130 NM EITHER SIDE OF
ITS AXIS. AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS ALONG THE WESTERN N ATLC
WITH BASE REACHING THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS A
STATIONARY FRONT WHICH TAIL EXTENDS TO THE MONA PASSAGE
GENERATING SHOWERS AND TSTMS THAT EXTEND TO EASTERN DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC. THE AXIS OF A SURFACE TROUGH IS JUST TO THE EAST OF
THE LESSER ANTILLES WHICH CONTINUES TO GENERATE SHOWERS AND
TSTMS ACROSS THE ISLANDS. A MIDDLE-LEVEL LOW SUPPORTS ISOLATED
SHOWERS IN THE EASTERN BASIN E OF 67W. ELSEWHERE...SUBSIDENCE OF
DRY AIR SUPPORTS FAIR WEATHER.

THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGHOUT CENTRAL AMERICA TO THE E
PACIFIC ON THURSDAY. THE SURFACE TROUGH EAST OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES WILL ENTER THE EASTERN BASIN TODAY AND IS EXPECTED TO
BE BETWEEN PUERTO RICO AND DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FRIDAY MORNING.

HISPANIOLA...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS ALONG THE WESTERN N ATLC WITH BASE
REACHING THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS A
STATIONARY FRONT WHICH TAIL EXTENDS TO THE MONA PASSAGE
GENERATING SHOWERS AND TSTMS THAT EXTEND TO EASTERN DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC. RAINSHOWERS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE
ISLAND THROUGH THURSDAY BEING SUPPORTED BY FAVORABLE MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVEL SYNOPTIC PATTERNS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN THE N WEST ATLC SUPPORTS A
STATIONARY FRONT THAT EXTENDS ALONG 30N55W TO 25N61W TO 18N68W.
A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH IS FROM 27N57W TO 20N60W. NUMEROUS MODERATE
CONVECTION WITH ISOLATED TSTMS IS N OF 25N BETWEEN 54W-57W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS IS FROM 19N-23N BETWEEN
61W-64W. A SURFACE TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 10N50W TO 06N52W
WITH NO CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH IT AT THE TIME. OVER THE
EASTERN ATLC NEAR THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...A MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL LOW SUPPORTS SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 07N-15N
EAST OF 28W. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC N OF 18N IS DOMINATED BY
A SURFACE RIDGE THAT IS ANCHORED BY A STRONG 1028 MB HIGH N OF
THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 35N23W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR


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