[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 291805
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT TUE OCT 29 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 68W/69W...TO THE SOUTH
OF 20N...CUTTING ACROSS THE EASTERNMOST PART OF THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC...MOVING WESTWARD 15 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 12N TO 18N BETWEEN
65W AND 72W...REACHING FROM THE NETHERLANDS ANTILLES TO PUERTO
RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS.

A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 9N61W 12N62W...FROM VENEZUELA INTO THE
SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT
THE TROUGH IS ENERGY THAT BROKE AWAY FROM THE 68W/69W TROPICAL
WAVE ABOUT 24 HOURS AGO. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM COASTAL AREAS OF TRINIDAD AND
TOBAGO AND VENEZUELA TO GRENADA.

THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
29/1200 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN...ARE 1.06 IN SAN JUAN PUERTO
RICO...0.95 IN TRINIDAD...0.45 IN GUADELOUPE...0.24 IN
TEGUCIGALPA...AND 0.08 IN CURACAO.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL AREAS OF GUINEA TO
10N15W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 10N15W TO 8N26W 8N36W AND 4N46W.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG IN AFRICA FROM
NORTHERN BORDER AREAS OF SIERRA LEONE TO 12N IN GUINEA-BISSAU
BETWEEN 11W AND 16W. SCATTERED STRONG FROM 4N TO 7N BETWEEN 22W
AND 25W...FROM 9N TO 13N BETWEEN 18W AND 25W...FROM 8N TO 11N
BETWEEN 34W AND 39W...FROM 4N TO 7N BETWEEN 42W AND 46W...AND
FROM 8N TO 11N BETWEEN 56W AND 61W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE
AREA. A RIDGE IS ALONG 94W. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN
SUBSIDENCE...APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...COVERS THE MOST
OF THE AREA...EXCEPT FOR THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE AREA.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH APALACHICOLA BAY OF FLORIDA INTO
THE CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL SECTIONS OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...TO
22N99W IN THE MEXICO COASTAL PLAINS.

A SURFACE TROUGH IS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO...ALONG 93W TO THE SOUTH OF 22N...INTO SOUTHERN MEXICO.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...EARLIER PRECIPITATION THAT WAS TO THE
SOUTH OF 20N BETWEEN 93W AND 95W HAS WEAKENED AND DISSIPATED.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 88W...

MOSTLY SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS COVER THE AREA. A FEW SITES HAVE
BEEN REPORTING INTERMITTENT LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS...SUCH AS
KVAF...KEMK...KGUL...KHQI...AND KGBK. FAIR SKIES/CLEAR SKIES AT
OR LOWER THAN 12000 FEET ARE BEING REPORTED ACROSS THE AREA.

LOW CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS. SCATTERED LOW
LEVEL AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS...AND BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS...COVER
THE MIDDLE TEXAS GULF COASTAL PLAINS. BROKEN LOW CLOUDS COVER A
MAJORITY OF THE STATIONS OF TEXAS FROM THE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST
NORTHWARD AND NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD HOUSTON AND THE UPPER TEXAS
GULF COAST...INTO SOUTHWESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL COASTAL
LOUISIANA. HIGH CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE NEW ORLEANS
METROPOLITAN AREA...ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN.
A HIGH LEVEL CLOUD CEILING IS BEING REPORTED IN MOBILE
ALABAMA...AND IN THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE FROM VALPARAISO WESTWARD.
BROKEN LOW CLOUDS ARE IN THE FORT MYERS AREA. FAIR SKIES/CLEAR
SKIES AT OR LOWER THAN 12000 FEET ARE BEING REPORTED ELSEWHERE
ACROSS IN THE U.S.A. GULF OF MEXICO COASTAL PLAINS.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE
OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4...FOR DETAILS ABOUT THE 42 HOUR
FORECAST OF SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA
HEIGHTS TO 8 FEET TO THE NORTH OF 26N TO THE WEST OF 92W.

...HISPANIOLA...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WINDFLOW COVERS
HISPANIOLA...AS A TROUGH CUTS ACROSS THE AREA. MULTILAYERED
MOISTURE IS WITHIN 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 22N68W IN THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO HISPANIOLA...TO 15N75W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA.
RAINSHOWERS ARE IN THE COASTAL WATERS...AND POSSIBLY INLAND.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT CYCLONIC WIND
FLOW...FROM AN INVERTED TROUGH...WILL COVER HISPANIOLA FOR THE
FIRST 12 HOURS OR SO. NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW COVER HISPANIOLA
FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS...AROUND A RIDGE THAT EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL
GEORGIA TOWARD HISPANIOLA. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB
SHOWS THAT A RIDGE WILL EXTEND FROM AN EAST-CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER TO HISPANIOLA.
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW WILL COVER HISPANIOLA FOR THE 48-HOUR
FORECAST PERIOD. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW FROM AN EAST-TO-WEST ORIENTED RIDGE...
WILL COVER THE AREA FOR THE FIRST 18 HOURS OR SO OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. A NORTHEAST-TO-SOUTHWEST ORIENTED TROUGH WILL CUT ACROSS
THE AREA FOR THE REST OF THE 48-HOUR FORECAST PERIOD.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE WEST OF 60W...

A SHORTWAVE MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH
33N68W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO 26N70W 21N71W...TO CENTRAL
HISPANIOLA. MULTILAYERED MOISTURE IS WITHIN 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE
OF 22N68W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO HISPANIOLA...TO 15N75W IN
THE CARIBBEAN SEA. A 1016 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 30N65W.
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE LOW CENTER TO 26N68W AND 22N72W. A
DEVELOPING COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE LOW CENTER TO 27N70W
25N73W...ACROSS THE BAHAMAS TO THE COAST OF CUBA NEAR 23N78W.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 29N TO 32N
BETWEEN 60W AND 62W. SCATTERED STRONG FROM 25N TO 28N BETWEEN
64W AND 67W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 30 NM TO 45 NM ON EITHER
SIDE OF THE DEVELOPING COLD FRONT TO THE EAST OF 74W. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG ELSEWHERE TO THE NORTH OF
20N BETWEEN 60W AND 70W.

THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
29/1200 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN...IS 0.52 IN BERMUDA.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 9N74W IN COLOMBIA...THROUGH 9N80W IN
PANAMA...BEYOND 11N86W IN COSTA RICA...INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC
OCEAN. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG IN COLOMBIA
FROM 7N TO 9N BETWEEN 74W AND 76W...IN PANAMA AND COASTAL WATERS
FROM 9N TO 10N BETWEEN 79W AND 81W.

CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG FROM 12N
IN NICARAGUA TO 15N IN EASTERN HONDURAS BETWEEN 84W AND
85W...FROM 15N IN HONDURAS TO 18N IN BELIZE BETWEEN 85W AND 89W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM
15N TO 16N BETWEEN 78W AND 83W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
ELSEWHERE TO THE NORTH OF 15N TO THE WEST OF 80W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE
OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR DETAILS ABOUT THE NORTHEAST
TO EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 9 FEET FROM 11N
TO 14N BETWEEN 70W AND 75W.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1031 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT
IS NEAR 38N22W...TO 34N29W 33N38W...THROUGH 32N51W...TO 26N62W.
SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
NORTH OF 15N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 60W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...FOR MORE
DETAILS ABOUT THE 58W TROPICAL WAVE. EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS
AND SEA HEIGHTS FROM 9 FEET TO 10 FEET FROM 11N TO 16N BETWEEN
52W AND 60W. EXPECT ALSO...WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA
HEIGHTS TO 10 FEET ELSEWHERE FROM 10N TO 19N BETWEEN 50W AND
60W. A SECOND AREA OF INTEREST CONSISTS OF EAST WINDS 20 TO 25
KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 9 FEET FROM 14N TO 26N TO THE EAST OF
46W.

MARINE FORECAST INFORMATION...FROM 10N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
61W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS TO 9 FT IN E SWELL. FROM 14N TO
22N BETWEEN 40W AND 50W E WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT.
ELSEWHERE FROM 12N TO 26N E OF 53W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS TO
9 FT IN NE SWELL.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT


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