[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 261727
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SAT OCT 26 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 13N41W TO 4N47W
MOVING W AT 15 KT. A DISTINCT MOIST AREA IS NOTED ON SSMI TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-12N BETWEEN 40W-46W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SENEGAL NEAR 14N17W TO
6N24W TO 5N30W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 5N30W TO 4N35W TO 8N43W.
THE ITCZ RESUMES ON THE OTHER SIDE OF A TROPICAL WAVE AT 7N48W
AND CONTINUES TO THE COAST OF FRENCH GUIANA AT 5N52W. BESIDES
THE CONVECTION MENTIONED ON THE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION...CLUSTERS
OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 4N-13N BETWEEN 15W-
40W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AS OF 1500 UTC...A 1028 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER N GEORGIA NEAR
34N84W. SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDS TO E TEXAS. FAIR WEATHER IS OVER
THE N GULF OF MEXICO N OF 24N. A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE BAY
OF CAMPECHE FROM 22N27W TO 19N93W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN
90 NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS. OUTSIDE OF THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...15-20
KT NE TO E SURFACE WINDS ARE OVER THE GULF. IN THE UPPER LEVELS
...MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW IS OVER THE GULF. A 90 KT JETSTREAM IS OVER
THE N GULF. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE N GULF N OF 25N.
CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE WITH SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS ARE S OF 25N.
EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR SOME COLD AIR ADVECTION TO BE
OVER N FLORIDA AND THE NE GULF. EXPECT RADIATIONAL COOLING TO BE
OVER FLORIDA TONIGHT. ALSO EXPECT THE TROUGH OVER THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE TO CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SHOWERS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A SHEAR LINE EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL CUBA AT 22N77W TO THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA AT 20N87W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE
NW CARIBBEAN FROM 16N-22N BETWEEN 82W-88W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 60 NM OF THE REMAINDER OF THE SHEAR LINE. A SURFACE
TROUGH IS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM E HONDURAS AT 15N84W TO THE
COAST OF PANAMA AT 10N81W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
WITHIN 120 NM OF THE TROUGH. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE S
BAHAMAS AT 22N71W THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO 18N75W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS. A SURFACE
TROUGH IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN FROM S OF PUERTO RICO AT 17N66W
TO VENEZUELA AT 10N67W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 11N-17N BETWEEN 62W-69W. 15-25 KT TRADEWINDS
ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONGEST WINDS OVER THE NW
CARIBBEAN. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED
OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS NEAR 17N87W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS
OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN E OF 75W. UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE IS OVER THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA.
EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE SURFACE TROUGHS TO DRIFT W
WITH CONVECTION.

HISPANIOLA...

PRESENTLY HISPANIOLA HAS MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER WITH CONVECTION N
OF THE ISLAND DUE TO SURFACE FRONTS AND A PREFRONTAL TROUGH OVER
THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. MORE CONVECTION IS S OF THE ISLAND DUE TO
ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE E CARIBBEAN. THERE IS A
POSSIBILITY FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS TO ADVECT OVER HISPANIOLA FROM
THE NORTH OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE WILL BE
MOSTLY SE OF THE ISLAND OVER THE E CARIBBEAN.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM
31N58W TO THE BAHAMAS AT 23N75W TO CENTRAL CUBA AT 22N77W. A
REINFORCING COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N60W TO 26N72W. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 21N-26N BETWEEN 70W-75W...AND FROM
23N-39N BETWEEN 62W-70W. A 1028 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC
NEAR 33N33W. OF NOTE IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
CENTRED NEAR 23N58W. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR
30N37W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE W ATLANTIC FRONTS
TO MERGE WITH CONVECTION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA


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