[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 252353
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT FRI OCT 25 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IN THE TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS FROM 14N37W TO 6N39W
MOVING W 15-20 KT. WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN A SURGE OF DEEP
MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY.
WAVE REMAINS BENEATH AN E/W UPPER RIDGE AND EMBEDDED WITHIN A
DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT THAT IS PRODUCING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 3N-10N BETWEEN 21W-42W
AND FROM 10N-13N BETWEEN 39W-40W.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS FROM 20N71W TO 12N68W
MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. WAVE IS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF A NARROW
SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE N OF 15N.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 13N17W TO 9N19W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES
ALONG 6N29W TO E OF THE TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 7N36W THEN RESUMES W
OF THE WAVE NEAR 8N43W AND CONTINUES TO 7N56W. AN E/W UPPER
RIDGE IS GENERATING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION FROM 3N-10N BETWEEN 21W-42W...FROM 10N-13N
BETWEEN 39W-40W...AND WITHIN 75 NM OF LINE FROM 7N42W TO 9N54W.
A SURFACE TROUGH IS APPROACHING THE WINDWARD ISLANDS EXTENDING
FROM 14N58W TO 9N57W GENERATING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 10N-14N BETWEEN 56W-64W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH DOMINATES THE E CONUS AND GULF OF MEXICO
SUPPORTING A STATIONARY FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC NEAR
23N80W ACROSS W CUBA TO THE N COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
NEAR 21N89W INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE ALONG 29N92W TO THE COAST
OF MEXICO JUST E OF THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60 NM N OF THE
FRONT AND SE OF THE FRONT. SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD
OVER THE GULF IN WAKE OF THE FRONT ANCHORED BY A 1034 MB HIGH
OVER THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. BROKEN TO OVERCAST
STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE WITHIN 180 NM NW OF THE FRONT LEAVING
THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF UNDER CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING. FRONT
WILL GRADUALLY BECOME DIFFUSE THROUGH SAT. SURFACE RIDGE WILL
DOMINATE SAT THROUGH MON.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE GULF OF HONDURAS ACROSS E CUBA
INTO THE W ATLC COVERING THE NW CARIBBEAN W OF 75W. THE UPPER
RIDGE IS PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO GENERATE SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS NW OF LINE FROM THE WINDWARD
PASSAGE TO NE NICARAGUA INCLUDING JAMAICA. A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM 15N81W TO 10N80W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 10N-14N BETWEEN 78W-84W. AN UPPER TROUGH
EXTENDS ACROSS HISPANIOLA TO OVER COLOMBIA COVERING THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN BETWEEN 69W-77W. THE CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS
BENEATH THIS UPPER TROUGH. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ACROSS THE SW
CARIBBEAN EXTENDING ALONG 9N FROM COLOMBIA TO COSTA RICA WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 10N W OF 77W. A
SECOND UPPER RIDGE IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE E CARIBBEAN
PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 13N E OF 69W TO OVER THE
LESSER ANTILLES. GULF OF MEXICO STATIONARY FRONT IN THE YUCATAN
CHANNEL WILL BECOME DIFFUSE THROUGH SUN NIGHT. CARIBBEAN
TROPICAL WAVE WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO THE W CARIBBEAN SAT.
TROPICAL ATLC TROPICAL WAVE WILL REACH THE WINDWARD ISLANDS TUE.

HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE ISLAND AND COUPLED
WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE ARE GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE OVER THE
ISLAND. THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE AWAY W AWAY FROM HAITI BY
SAT AFTERNOON WHILE THE UPPER TROUGH WILL SHIFT E BY EARLY SUN.
THIS WILL LESSEN THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO LATE
AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE E CONUS AND THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS
INTO THE W ATLC N OF 26N W OF 68W SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT N OF
THE DISCUSSION AREA AND ENTERS THE W ATLC AS A STATIONARY FRONT
NEAR 32N61W AND CONTINUES ALONG 26N72W INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO
NEAR 23N80W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF
21N TO THE FRONT W OF 65W. DENSE STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE WITHIN
150 NM W OF THE FRONT. AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE NW
CARIBBEAN ACROSS E CUBA TO 25N70W FURTHER ENHANCING THE ACTIVITY
ASSOCIATES WITH THE FRONT. AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 22N69W
ACROSS HISPANIOLA INTO THE CARIBBEAN. THE REMNANTS OF LORENZO IS
A 1019 MB LOW NEAR 32N45W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING INTO
THE DISCUSSION AREA TO 27N46W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 75 NM
OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. A SHEAR LINE EXTENDS FROM AFRICA NEAR
INTO THE E ATLC NEAR 16N14W ALONG 23N27W TO 24N38W AND ISOLATED
SHOWERS WITHIN 75 NM S AND E OF THE SHEAR LINE. THE REMAINDER OF
THE ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1021 MB
HIGH NEAR 27N51W AND A 1025 MB HIGH NEAR 32N35W. STATIONARY
FRONT WILL BECOME DIFFUSE THROUGH SAT NIGHT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW


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