[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 241118
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT THU OCT 24 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION LORENZO AT 24/0900 UTC IS NEAR
29.8N 47.8W. LORENZO IS MOVING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD 4 KNOTS. THE
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1009 MB. THE MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 30 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 40 KNOTS.
PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON LORENZO ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT33
KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT3. FORECAST/ADVISORIES ON
LORENZO ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT23 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS
HEADER MIATCMAT3. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG
WITHIN A 15 NM TO 30 NM RADIUS OF 29N47W IN ONE CLUSTER OF
SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION.

..GULF OF MEXICO GALE WARNING...
.COLD FRONT 25N81W TO 19N92W. S OF 20N W OF 95W NW TO N WINDS 30
TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 TO 11 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 90 NM N OF FRONT
BETWEEN 90W AND 95W N TO NE WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS TO 9 FT.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 27W TO THE SOUTH OF 17N
MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 4N TO 11N BETWEEN 22W AND 31W.
IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THIS PRECIPITATION MAY BE RELATED MORE
CORRECTLY TO THE ITCZ PRECIPITATION.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 18N61W 14N59W 9N56W
MOVING WESTWARD 15 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 14N TO 19N BETWEEN
59W AND 62W.

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 84W/85W...TO THE SOUTH OF
17N...MOVING WESTWARD 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE CENTRAL AMERICA
COUNTRIES OF HONDURAS...NICARAGUA...AND COSTA RICA. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...NOTHING SIGNIFICANT INLAND. PRECIPITATION THAT
IS IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA MAY BE RELATED MORE CORRECTLY TO OTHER
FEATURES.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL BORDER SECTIONS OF
SENGAL AND GUINEA...TO 12N19W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 12N19W TO
8N26W 6N33W 5N41W...AND 2N46W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 2N TO 11N BETWEEN 22W AND 40W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
NEAR 13N53W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM 10N TO 22N
BETWEEN 45W AND 57W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 8N TO 13N BETWEEN 43W AND 52W.
RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 13N TO 20N BETWEEN 44W AND 51W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE WEST OF 75W...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH THE
NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE U.S.A. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD
FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N69W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...THE
NORTHERN BAHAMAS NEAR 26N77W...ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS...TO THE
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...CURVING TO
18N92W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ARE TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF 30N86W IN THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...26N92W AND
23N98W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG TO THE SOUTH
OF 21N BETWEEN 92W AND 94W IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
GULF OF MEXICO. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG ELSEWHERE TO THE
SOUTH OF 25N BETWEEN 83W AND 95W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IN
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...ISOLATED MODERATE WITHIN 300 NM TO THE WEST
OF 32N57W 28N63W 23N73W.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THROUGH LOUISIANA...TO THE COASTAL WATERS OF THE DEEP SOUTH OF
TEXAS AND NORTHEASTERN MEXICO...TO 20N98W IN MEXICO...TO 18N97W
TOWARD THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 88W...

A LOW CLOUD CEILING COVERS THE ICAO STATIONS KMZG...KGBK...
KHQI...AND KGUL. FAIR SKIES/CLEAR SKIES AT OR LOWER THAN 12000
FEET ARE BEING REPORTED ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE AREA.

A LOW CLOUD CEILING IS OBSERVED IN PORT ISABEL TEXAS. PATTERSON
LOUISIANA IN SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA IS REPORTING A VISIBILITY
OF 1 MILE OR LESS. A MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILING COVERS THE TAMPA
INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT...AND THE FORT MYERS METROPOLITAN AREA.
LOW LEVEL AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE FLORIDA
KEYS. FAIR SKIES/CLEAR SKIES AT OR LOWER THAN 12000 FEET ARE
BEING REPORTED ELSEWHERE ACROSS IN THE U.S.A. GULF OF MEXICO
COASTAL PLAINS.

FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS HISPANIOLA...INTO THE CARIBBEAN
SEA...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE
CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 11N TO 26N BETWEEN 67W
AND 86W. A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 21N74W...JUST OFF
THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF CUBA ON THE ATLANTIC OCEAN SIDE OF
CUBA. A SURFACE TROUGH IS IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ALONG
69W/70W TO THE SOUTH OF 19N IN THE EASTERN PART OF THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
SCATTERED STRONG HAS DEVELOPED IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA WATERS THAT
ARE TO THE SOUTH OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...FROM 16N TO 21N...
SPREADING ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...
BETWEEN 66W AND 72W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM
11N TO 17N BETWEEN 76W AND THE COASTS OF NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS
ALONG 83W.

THE GFS FORECAST FOR 700 MB AND FOR 250 MB SHOWS CYCLONIC WIND
FLOW TO COVER HISPANIOLA FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE GFS FORECAST
FOR 500 MB SHOWS ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW ACROSS HISPANIOLA FOR
THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 9N FROM 75W IN COLOMBIA BEYOND 85W
IN COSTA RICA...INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG TO THE
SOUTH OF 11N TO THE WEST OF 79W.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A NORTHEASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN DEEP LAYER TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD
FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N23W TO 29N30W AND 28N40W.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED
CLOUDS AND WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG TO THE NORTH OF 32N14W 25N26W 27N41W.

BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
FROM 20N TO THE COLD FRONT TO THE EAST OF 44W....AND FROM 20N TO
32N...EXCLUDING THE AREA OF A 180 NM RADIUS AROUND TROPICAL
DEPRESSION LORENZO...BETWEEN 40W AND 64W. A SURFACE 1020 MB HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 25N35W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...FOR MORE
DETAILS ABOUT TROPICAL DEPRESSION LORENZO. A SECOND AREA OF
WINDS AND SEAS IS WITH THE 12 HOUR FORECAST OF NORTHEAST TO EAST
WINDS 20 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 FEET FROM 9N TO 12N BETWEEN 45W
AND 48W. A THIRD AREA OF INTEREST IS THE 42 HOUR FORECAST...
STATIONARY FRONT 31N62W 22N76W. NORTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS
AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 8 FEET TO THE EAST OF THE BAHAMAS...FROM 22N
TO 26N BETWEEN 74W AND 78W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT


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