[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 201051
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SUN OCT 20 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE W OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS EXTENDS FROM 15N29W TO
8N30W MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. WAVE IS WELL DEFINED IN THE 700 MB
PRESSURE FIELD. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
IS FROM 11N-13N BETWEEN 27W-30W.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE E CARIBBEAN EXTENDS FROM 17N64W TO 9N65W
MOVING W-NW 15-20 KT. WAVE IS WELL DEFINED IN THE SATELLITE
DERIVED WINDS. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM
12N-15N BETWEEN 58W-65W INCLUDING THE LESSER ANTILLES.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 12N16W TO 8N18W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES
ALONG 5N23W S OF THE TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 7N30W 5N37W TO NEAR
4N47W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
ARE WITHIN 180 NM S OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 18W-20W AND FROM 11N-19N
BETWEEN 52W-58W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE
FROM 6N-12N BETWEEN 31W-36W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE AREA FROM NEW ENGLAND TO THE
NORTHERN PLAIN STATES SUPPORTING A NEWLY MERGED COLD FRONT THAT
ENTERS THE GULF AT 20/0900 UTC JUST N OF TAMPA FLORIDA AND
CONTINUES ALONG 25N89W 21N94W TO INLAND OVER MEXICO NEAR THE
ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE S OF 24N W OF 95W TO INLAND OVER MEXICO WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 205 NM W
OF THE REMAINDER OF THE FRONT. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE
GULF WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OVER W
CUBA INTO THE W ATLC. LINGERING ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE S OF 27N TO
THE COAST OF CUBA BETWEEN 81W-84W INCLUDING THE LOW FLORIDA
KEYS. COLD FRONT WILL STALL AND WEAKEN TODAY BEFORE LIFTING N
AND BECOME DIFFUSE MON. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE
TEXAS COAST EARLY TUE REACHING FROM TAMPA FLORIDA TO THE SW GULF
BY LATE WED. A THIRD COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE FAR NE GULF
BY LATE THU.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS AN AXIS FROM THE
N YUCATAN PENINSULA OVER W CUBA INTO THE W ATLC. A BROAD UPPER
LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 16N79W WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING
FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO NICARAGUA. AN UPPER RIDGE COVERS
THE REMAINDER OF THE E CARIBBEAN ANCHORED IN THE TROPICAL ATLC.
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM COLOMBIA S OF PANAMA GENERATING
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 10N E OF 78W TO
INLAND OVER COLOMBIA AND S OF 13N BETWEEN 78W-82W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN WITHIN 75 NM ALONG THE
COAST OF CUBA BETWEEN 77W-79W. WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WILL
PERSIST THROUGH MID WEEK. TROPICAL WAVE IN THE E CARIBBEAN WILL
REACH THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BY LATE MON THEN WEAKEN AS IT MOVES
INTO THE SW CARIBBEAN TUE.

HISPANIOLA...
SKIES ARE CLEAR ACROSS THE ENTIRE ISLAND THIS MORNING. DAYTIME
HEATING COULD PRODUCE AFTERNOON SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH MID WEEK.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE AREA FROM NEW ENGLAND TO THE
NORTHERN PLAIN STATES SUPPORTING A NEWLY MERGED COLD FRONT THAT
ENTERS THE W ATLC AT 20/0900 UTC THROUGH 32N77W AND CONTINUES
INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO ACROSS FLORIDA BETWEEN DAYTONA BEACH TO
JUST N OF TAMPA. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
WITHIN 120 NM W OF THE FRONT. THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO EXTENDS AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS FROM W CUBA ACROSS THE
BAHAMAS NEAR 24N76W TO BEYOND BERMUDA COVERING MOST OF THE W
ATLC W OF 67W. A WEAKENING 1014 MB LOW IS BENEATH THIS UPPER
RIDGE CENTERED NEAR 29N74W. AN UPPER LOW IS OVER THE REMAINDER
OF THE W ATLC CENTERED NEAR 24N65W AND DIPPING S TO OVER PUERTO
RICO SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 24N64W TO
19N66W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 20N-
27N BETWEEN 58W-64W. A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH IS IN THE CENTRAL
ATLC EXTENDING FROM 27N50W ALONG 25N55W TO 22N57W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 90/120 NM OF LINE FROM
23N50W TO 28N56W. A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE
CENTRAL AND E ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1019 MB HIGH IN THE CENTRAL
ATLC NEAR 32N57W AND A 1022 MB HIGH IN THE E ATLC NEAR 29N40W. W
ATLC COLD FRONT WILL REACH FROM 31N74W TO CENTRAL FLORIDA BY
LATE TODAY BEFORE WEAKENING AND SHIFTING N AGAIN MON. ANOTHER
FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE NE FLORIDA COAST LATE TUE REACHING FROM
31N73W TO SE FLORIDA BY LATE WED AND FROM 31N65W TO THE STRAITS
OF FLORIDA BY LATE THU.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW


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