[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 200525
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SUN OCT 20 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0445 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE W OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS EXTENDS FROM 15N27W TO
7N28W MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. WAVE IS WELL DEFINED IN THE 700 MB
PRESSURE FIELD. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION ARE FROM 8N-12N BETWEEN 29W-34W.

TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES EXTENDS FROM 17N61W TO
8N61W MOVING W-NW NEAR 15 KT. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM
11N-18N BETWEEN 55W-61W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 12N17W TO 10N18W. THE ITCZ BEGINS NEAR 4N15W AND
CONTINUES TO E OF THE WAVE NEAR 7N25W THEN RESUMES W OF THE WAVE
NEAR 8N31W AND CONTINUES ALONG 7N38W TO NEAR 5N47W. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 3N-8N
BETWEEN 15W-34W...FROM 7N-12N BETWEEN 35W-42W...AND FROM 10N-15N
BETWEEN 50W-55W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A REMNANT COLD FRONT EXTENDS INTO THE GULF AT 20/0300 UTC ACROSS
NE FLORIDA CEDAR KEY AND CONTINUES ALONG 26N88W 21N94W S TO THE
COAST OF MEXICO NEAR 18N95W. A BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE
AREA FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE NORTHERN PLAIN STATES
SUPPORTING A REINFORCING COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE GULF NEAR
PENSACOLA FLORIDA AND CONTINUES ALONG 26N93W TO MEXICO NEAR
TAMPICO. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE INLAND AND
WITHIN 75 NM ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM TAMPICO TO VERACRUZ.
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 90 NM E OF THE REINFORCING
FRONT AND S OF 16N W OF THIS FRONT TO INLAND OVER MEXICO. A
BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE GULF WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING
FROM S MEXICO NEAR 18N94W THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA INTO
THE W ATLC. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS IN THE SE GULF EXTENDING
FROM 27N83W TO THE N COAST OF CUBA NEAR 23N84W WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS S OF 24N TO THE COAST OF CUBA BETWEEN 82W-84W. LEADING
COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT SLOWLY SE OVERNIGHT. THE REINFORCING FRONT
WILL SHIFT SE AND GRADUALLY MERGE WITH LEADING FRONT BY SUN
AFTERNOON REACHING FROM NEAR TARPON SPRINGS FLORIDA TO TAMPICO
MEXICO BEFORE STALLING AND WEAKENING THERE INTO MON. A THIRD
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE N GULF TUE AND SHIFT SE REACHING
FROM SW FLORIDA TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE BY LATE WED.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO COVERS THE NW CARIBBEAN
NW OF LINE FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO THE CENTRAL COAST OF HONDURAS. A
BROAD UPPER LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 15N79W WITH THE UPPER TROUGH
AXIS EXTENDING FROM HAITI/WINDWARD PASSAGE TO COSTA RICA. AN
UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE E CARIBBEAN ANCHORED IN
THE TROPICAL ATLC. THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM INLAND OVER
COLOMBIA TO PANAMA AND COSTA RICA GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF A LINE FROM NICARAGUA NEAR 14N83W TO
COLOMBIA NEAR 11N75W. AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THAT
DEVELOPED OVER CUBA AND HISPANIOLA ARE MOVING INTO THE CARIBBEAN
WATERS WITHIN 60 NM ALONG THE COAST OF CUBA BETWEEN 77W-80W AND
WITHIN 45 NM ALONG THE COAST OF THE HISPANIOLA BETWEEN 69W-71W.
WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH MID WEEK. TROPICAL
WAVE OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES WILL MOVE W ACROSS THE S CARIBBEAN
AND REACH W CARIBBEAN BY TUE EVENING.

HISPANIOLA...
AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOPED INLAND OVER THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC HAVE MOVED TO WITHIN 45 NM ALONG THE S COAST
BETWEEN 69W-71W WITH CLEAR SKIES OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE
ISLAND. DAYTIME HEATING COULD PRODUCE AFTERNOON SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MID WEEK.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS AN UPPER RIDGE
AXIS FROM THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA TO BEYOND BERMUDA COVERING MOST
OF THE W ATLC W OF 67W. A WEAK 1014 MB LOW IS BENEATH THIS UPPER
RIDGE CENTERED NEAR 28N74W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM
26N-29N BETWEEN 73W-75W. AN UPPER LOW IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF
THE W ATLC CENTERED NEAR 24N64W AND DIPPING S OVER PUERTO RICO
SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 23N65W TO 19N66W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 19N-24N
BETWEEN 60W-67W. A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH IS IN THE CENTRAL ATLC
EXTENDING FROM 27N51W TO 21N56W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 21N-27N BETWEEN 50W-56W. A SURFACE RIDGE
DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND E ATLC ANCHORED BY A
1021 MB HIGH IN THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 32N57W AND A 1022 MB HIGH
IN THE E ATLC NEAR 29N36W. A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WILL PERSIST
THROUGH SUN. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE NE FLORIDA
COAST EARLY SUN THEN STALL AND BECOME DIFFUSE MON. A SECOND AND
STRONGER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF NE FLORIDA COAST
EARLY WED.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW


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