[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 180538
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT FRI OCT 18 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE WAS ADDED TO THE 18/0000 UTC ANALYSIS INLAND ALONG
THE COAST OF AFRICA BASED ON THE GFS GLOBAL MODEL AND THE TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY ALONG 16W N OF 8N. SMALL CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 90/120
NM OF THE WAVE BETWEEN 8N-11N.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 14N46W TO 5N50W MOVING W-NW 15-20 KT.
WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE AS
DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 75 NM OF LINE FROM 9N47W
10N51W TO 8N53W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
FROM 11N-13N BETWEEN 47W-50W.

TROPICAL WAVE E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES EXTENDS FROM 15N58W TO
7N58W MOVING W 10-15 KT. THE N PORTION OF THE WAVE HAS BROKEN
OFF AND IS NOW DEPICTED AS A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM
22N49W TO 15N51W. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD AREA OF DEEP
MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM
13N-15N BETWEEN 57W-61W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA TO E OF THE NEWLY ADDED
TROPICAL WAVE. THE ITCZ BEGINS W OF THE WAVE NEAR 13N20W AND
CONTINUES ALONG 10N25W 8N35W TO 11N44W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 6N-10N BETWEEN 25W-
36W AND FROM 6N-14N BETWEEN 36W-46W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH THAT COVERS THE NE CONUS IS SUPPORTING A
COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE GULF OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR
PANAMA CITY AND CONTINUES ALONG 27N89W 25N95W TO THE COAST OF
MEXICO NEAR TUXPAN. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE W OF THE FRONT TO A
LINE FROM VERMILION BAY LOUISIANA TO CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS. A
BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE GULF WATERS ANCHORED IN THE SE
GULF NEAR 24N83W. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES TONIGHT. COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT SLOWLY SE AND
BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY FRI. A REINFORCING SURGE OF NORTHERLY
FLOW WILL ALLOW THE FRONT TO BRIEFLY PUSH S AGAIN FRI NIGHT AND
SAT. THE SW PORTION OF THE FRONT WILL BEGIN TO LIFT BACK N AS A
WARM FRONT FRI EVENING INTO SAT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO COVERS THE NW CARIBBEAN
NW OF LINE FROM CUBA NEAR 20N76W TO GUATEMALA NEAR 16N89W. AN
UPPER LOW IS CENTERED INLAND OVER NICARAGUA NEAR 14N84W COVERING
THE CARIBBEAN WATERS FROM 11N-16N BETWEEN 80W-86W. THE UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE W ATLC EXTENDS ACROSS THE NE CARIBBEAN N OF 14N
E OF 76W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 14N-
17N BETWEEN 64W-73W. AN UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE SE CARIBBEAN S OF
14N W OF 80W AND ANCHORED INLAND OVER VENEZUELA. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE S OF 14N BETWEEN 63W-74W. THE
MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM COLOMBIA ACROSS PANAMA NEAR 9N80W TO
OVER COSTA RICA NEAR 10N83W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 11N E OF 80W AND S OF 10N W OF 80W.
WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH TUE. TROPICAL WAVE
ENTER THE CARIBBEAN FRI MOVING NW SAT BEFORE DISSIPATING SUN. A
SECOND TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE S CARIBBEAN SUN
THROUGH TUE.

HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALONG THE
N COAST OF THE ISLAND WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER SE HAITI. THE UPPER TROUGH
GENERATING THIS ACTIVITY IS BEGINNING TO SHIFT E GIVING THE
ISLAND A MORE NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT. THE TROPICAL WAVE E OF THE
LESSER ANTILLES WILL CLIP THE ISLAND ON SAT NIGHT INTO SUN
BEFORE IT DISSIPATES INCREASING THE CHANCES OF WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. DAYTIME HEATING PRODUCING
AFTERNOON SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN A POSSIBILITY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS OVER THE W ATLC
W OF 70W. A NARROW UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE W
ATLC EXTENDING FROM AN UPPER LOW NEAR 28N64W ACROSS E HISPANIOLA
INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH THAT
EXTENDS FROM 29N69W ACROSS THE BAHAMA ISLANDS TO THE COAST OF
CUBA NEAR 21N75W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 19N-28N BETWEEN 59W-68W AND FROM 22N TO
ALONG THE N COAST OF HISPANIOLA BETWEEN 70W-73W. A SURFACE
TROUGH...PREVIOUSLY N PORTION OF A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM
22N49W ALONG 18N51W TO 15N51W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 19N-24N BETWEEN 45W-54W. A WEAK 1020 MB HIGH
IS IN THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 29N57W. A LINGERING COLD FRONT IS IN
THE E/CENTRAL ATLC ENTERING THE REGION NEAR 32N22W TO 26N29W
WHERE IT DISSIPATES TO 25N38W THEN BECOMES A DISSIPATING
STATIONARY FRONT TO 28N49W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 75 NM E OF THE FROM E OF 27W
AND WITHIN 45 NM NW OF THE FRONT BETWEEN 27W-30W. A WEAK
PRESSURE PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH SUN. THE GULF OF MEXICO
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE FAR W ATLC SAT THEN SLOW
DOWN AS IT BECOMES STATIONARY ACROSS THE NW PORTION INTO MON
WHILE A SURFACE TROUGH LINGERS ACROSS THE SW WATERS AND CENTRAL
BAHAMAS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW


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