[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 162342
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT WED OCT 16 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 12N36W TO 4N41W
MOVING W AT 12 KNOTS. THIS IS A LOW AMPLITUDE TROPICAL WAVE.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-10N BETWEEN 36W-46W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 17N46W TO 9N52W
MOVING W AT 10 KNOTS. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90
NM OF THE WAVE AXIS.

A CENTRAL AMERICA TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM HONDURAS AT 14N87W
TO THE EASTERN PACIFIC AT 10N87W MOVING W AT 5-10 KT. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA TO THE COAST OF GUINEA
AT 10N14W AND ENDS AT 6N20W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 6N20W TO
5N28W TO 8N35W. THE ITCZ RESUMES ON THE OTHER SIDE OF A TROPICAL
WAVE AT 6N43W AND CONTINUES TO THE COAST OF FRENCH GUIANA AT
5N52W. BESIDES THE CONVECTION MENTIONED IN THE TROPICAL WAVE
SECTION...ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF
WEST AFRICA FROM 5N-11N BETWEEN 10W-20W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS
FROM 4N-7N BETWEEN 20W-33W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 5N-10N BETWEEN 46W-50W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AS OF 2100 UTC...A COLD FRONT IS JUST OFF THE COAST OF TEXAS
FROM 30N94W TO 27N97W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE
FRONT. A 1015 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AT
30N86W PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER. ELSEWHERE RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA E OF 83W. IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL
GULF NEAR 24N89W. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER TEXAS AND THE NW
GULF...AND OVER FLORIDA. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE REMAINDER
OF THE GULF. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR THE COLD FRONT TO EXTEND
FROM S ALABAMA TO TAMPICO MEXICO WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE EASTERN PACIFIC.
SEE ABOVE. A RELATIVELY LAX SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS
PRODUCING 10-15 KT TRADEWINDS OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH
STRONGEST WINDS OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG THE N COASTS OF COLOMBIA AND
VENEZUELA FROM 10N-13N BETWEEN 66W-75W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS OVER E CUBA...JAMAICA... HISPANIOLA...AND PUERTO
RICO. A MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM N COLOMBIA AT 10N75W TO
11N80W TO BEYOND COSTA RICA AT 10N85W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS OVER PANAMA...AND COSTA RICA. SIMILAR CONVECTION
IS INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA FROM NICARAGUA TO S GUATEMALA. IN
THE UPPER LEVELS... NE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE
IS OVER W CUBA AND THE NW CARIBBEAN. A SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
CENTERED OVER THE COAST OF NICARAGUA WINDWARD NEAR 13N83W
ENHANCING CONVECTION. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN N OF 13N BETWEEN 66W-76W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER
THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN PRODUCING SW FLOW. CONSIDERABLE UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN...EXCEPT OVER THE NW
CARIBBEAN N OF 15N W OF 78W. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS.

HISPANIOLA...

PRESENTLY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER HISPANIOLA
MOSTLY DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. EXPECT SIMILAR CONVECTION
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1010 MB GALE LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 32N63W.
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS SW FROM THE LOW CENTER TO S BAHAMAS AND
E CUBA ALONG 30N67W 27N70W 21N76W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS FROM 20N-26N BETWEEN 62W-74W. A STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 32N32W TO 28N40W TO 28N50W TO 32N58W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE FRONT. A 1022 MB HIGH
IS CENTERED OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 35N15W WITH FAIR WEATHER.
IN THE TROPICS...A SURFACE TROUGH IS E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
FROM 21N60W TO 16N58W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE
TROUGH AXIS. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER
THE W ATLANTIC W OF 75W PRODUCING NORTHERLY FLOW. AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC N OF 20N BETWEEN 60W-75W. AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW IS EMBEDDED IN THE UPPER TROUGH AT 29N66W. UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE S OF THIS SYSTEM IS ENHANCING THE CONVECTION FROM 20N-
26N BETWEEN 62W-74W. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED E OF
THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 20N55W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE E OF THE
CENTER IS PRODUCING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 18N-20N
BETWEEN 50W-52W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA


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