[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 151804
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT TUE OCT 15 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 17N40W 14N43W 10N45W
MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 120 NM TO 240 NM ON EITHER SIDE
OF 20N38W 14N43W 9N47W.

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 84W TO THE SOUTH OF 17N
IS MOVING WESTWARD 15 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... WIDELY
SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG TO THE SOUTH
OF 15N BETWEEN 76W AND CENTRAL AMERICA. THIS AREA ALSO IS NEAR
THE BASE OF THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-HISPANIOLA-CARIBBEAN
SEA MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL AREAS OF GAMBIA
AND SOUTHWESTERN SENEGAL...FROM 13N TO 14N BETWEEN 16W AND
17W...TO 11N20W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 11N20W TO 8N30W 7N33W
AND 8N40W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
STRONG FROM 4N TO 9N BETWEEN 26W AND 28W...AND FROM 6N TO 8N
BETWEEN 31W AND 33W. WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG ELSEWHERE FROM 2N TO 10N BETWEEN 21W AND
43W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 6N TO 9N BETWEEN 44W AND 46W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA. THE
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 26N95W IN THE
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH COASTAL ALABAMA...TO 27N92W IN
THE NORTHWESTERN PART OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...TOWARD THE
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 88W...

FAIR SKIES/CLEAR SKIES AT OR LOWER THAN 12000 FEET ARE BEING
REPORTED ACROSS THE AREA.

BROKEN TO SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS...AND BROKEN HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS...COVER THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS. BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS ARE
AT THE KINGSVILLE NAVAL AIR STATION. OVERCAST LOW LEVEL AND
MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS COVER THE AREA FROM GALVESTON TEXAS TO THE
HOUSTON METROPOLITAN AREA. BROKEN LOW LEVEL AND MIDDLE LEVEL
CLOUDS ARE IN SOUTH CENTRAL COASTAL LOUISIANA. BROKEN HIGH
CLOUDS ARE AROUND THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN.
BROKEN LOW AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE OBSERVED IN MOBILE ALABAMA. LOW
CLOUD CEILINGS AND HIGH CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE AREA FROM THE
NAVAL AIR STATION PENSACOLA TO THE NAVAL AIR STATION WHITING
FIELD..AND IN VALPARAISO. LOW CLOUD CEILINGS ARE IN PANAMA CITY
AND MARIANNA FLORIDA...AND FROM PERRY TO BROOKSVILLE. SCATTERED
TO BROKEN LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND BROKEN HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS COVER
THE TAMPA METROPOLITAN AREA.

FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN TO HISPANIOLA...

A WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
REACHES HISPANIOLA...TO 17N73W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE SOUTH
OF HISPANIOLA...AND TO 14N75W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG IS TO THE SOUTH OF
HISPANIOLA FROM 15N TO THE COAST BETWEEN THE MONA PASSAGE AND
THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND JAMAICA. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN
SUBSIDENCE...AS SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...COVERS THE
CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE NORTH OF 16N TO THE WEST OF JAMAICA.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT ANTICYCLONIC WIND
FLOW WILL COVER HISPANIOLA FOR THE FIRST 30 HOURS OR SO OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-HISPANIOLA TROUGH FROM
250 MB AND FROM 500 MB ALSO WILL REACH THE ISLAND AT 700 MB FOR
THE REST OF THE 48 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. THE GFS FORECAST FOR
500 MB SHOWS THAT THE CURRENT UPPER LEVEL/250 MB TROUGH WILL
REACH HISPANIOLA ALSO DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE GFS FORECAST
FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT THE CURRENT ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-HISPANIOLA
TROUGH WILL SPREAD MORE TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST AND STAY IN
PLACE ACROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD.

THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 84W TO THE SOUTH OF 17N
IS MOVING WESTWARD 15 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... WIDELY
SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG TO THE SOUTH
OF 15N BETWEEN 76W AND CENTRAL AMERICA. THIS AREA ALSO IS NEAR
THE BASE OF THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-HISPANIOLA-CARIBBEAN
SEA MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.

24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
15/1200 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN...ARE 0.79 IN NASSAU IN THE
BAHAMAS...0.17 IN MERIDA...AND 0.14 IN GUADELOUPE...0.10 IN
TRINIDAD...AND 0.09 IN TEGUCIGALPA IN HONDURAS.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 10N74W IN NORTHERN COLOMBIA...TO
10N80W...TO 11N80W IN NORTHERN COSTA RICA...BEYOND 10N86W...
INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG TO THE
SOUTH OF 15N BETWEEN 76W AND CENTRAL AMERICA. THIS AREA ALSO IS
NEAR THE BASE OF THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-HISPANIOLA-
CARIBBEAN SEA MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
REACHES HISPANIOLA...TO 17N73W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE SOUTH
OF HISPANIOLA...AND TO 14N75W. ONE SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG
28N78W 23N79W IN THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS. A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH
IS ALONG 29N70W 25N73W 21N77W AT THE COAST OF CUBA. A THIRD
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 1012 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT
IS NEAR 32N73W TO 30N74W. A 1013 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS ALONG
THE FLORIDA COAST NEAR 30N81W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 22N IN THE BAHAMAS TO 24N BETWEEN 68W AND
73W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 24N TO 32N
BETWEEN 60W AND 71W. SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 22N TO 24N BETWEEN
73W AND 76W. A 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD
ENDING AT 15/1200 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN
TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES... MIATPTPAN...IS 0.79 IN
NASSAU IN THE BAHAMAS..

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 25N36W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER...TO 23N41W 23N49W...TO AN 18N55W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER...TO 15N57W...TO 8N58W OFF THE COAST OF GUYANA. A SURFACE
TROUGH IS ALONG 21N51W...TO A 1012 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT
IS NEAR 18N54W...TO 15N56W AND 11N58W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 14N TO 17N
BETWEEN 49W AND 52W. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED ELSEWHERE FROM
11N TO 20N BETWEEN 48W AND 60W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG FROM 4N TO 8N BETWEEN 50W AND 54W. RAINSHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE FROM 20N TO 26N BETWEEN 32W AND 40W.

A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N34W TO 29N40W 28N50W AND 27N60W.
A DEEP LAYER CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 33N38W
TO 30N44W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG FROM 26N TO 30N BETWEEN 38W AND 54W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
NEAR 22N25W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE CENTER
COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 17N TO 30N BETWEEN 20W AND 30W.
BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE
PRECIPITATION FROM THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS NEAR 15N TO 30N
BETWEEN AFRICA AND 28W.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N16W TO 28N25W 25N34W...AND
25N52W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...FOR MORE
DETAILS ABOUT THE COLD FRONT 31N38W 29N41W...THEN STATIONARY TO
28N60W. EXPECT NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA
HEIGHTS TO 10 FEET TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT


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