[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 101756
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT THU OCT 10 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 11N32W MOVING WNW AT 10
KT. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM
LATER TODAY OR TOMORROW BEFORE UNFAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL LEVEL
WINDS BECOME ESTABLISHED NEAR THE DISTURBANCE. THIS LOW HAS A
MEDIUM CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS...AND A MEDIUM CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-
14N BETWEEN 28W-38W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 21N48W 16N50W 11N50W
MOVING W AT 10-15 KNOTS. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS E OF
THE WAVE AXIS FROM 16N-20N BETWEEN 45W-49W.

A CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 19N75W 10N76W MOVING
W AT 10-15 KNOTS. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS W
OF THE WAVE AXIS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM 9N-12N BETWEEN 76W-
80W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE REMAINDER OF THE
WAVE AXIS.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL AREAS OF GUINEA AT
11N15W TO 6N16W TO 6N22W TO 12N28W TO THE 1009 MB LOW AT 11N32W
TO 9N40W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 9N40W TO NEAR TRINIDAD AT
10N60W. BESIDES THE CONVECTION MENTIONED WITH THE SPECIAL
FEATURES ABOVE...ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-10N
BETWEEN 9W-22W...AND FROM 5N-9N BETWEEN 25W-28W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AS OF 1500 UTC...A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE
STRAITS OF FLORIDA AT 24N80W TO W CUBA TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
AT 21N87W. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE
STRAITS OF FLORIDA E OF 83W. ELSEWHERE...A SURFACE TROUGH IS
OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE FROM 21N96W TO 18N94W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS. SURFACE RIDGING AND
FAIR WEATHER BEHIND THE FRONT IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF
OF MEXICO. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS
CENTERED OVER S MEXICO NEAR 18N101W PRODUCING NORTHERLY FLOW
OVER THE W GULF W OF 88W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE E
GULF E OF 88W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE ENTIRE GULF. EXPECT
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TO COVER THE
ENTIRE GULF. EXPECT THE SURFACE TROUGH TO PERSIST WITH CONTINUED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ALSO EXPECT CONTINUED SURFACE RIDGING
OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA. SEE ABOVE.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER
NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS FROM 11N-16N BETWEEN 82W-87W. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER E CUBA AND HISPANIOLA. SIMILAR
CONVECTION IS OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS FROM 12N-15N BETWEEN 64W-
68W. THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM N COLOMBIA AT 8N77W TO
COSTA RICA AT 10N86W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90
NM OF THE TROUGH. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS
OVER THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 80W. A SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN NEAR 14N75W. ANOTHER SMALL
UPPER LEVEL LOW IS JUST N OF HISPANIOLA AT 21N70W. THIS LOW IS
ENHANCING THE ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION OVER HISPANIOLA.
SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE COVERS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN
SEA... AND CENTRAL AMERICA S OF BELIZE. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS FOR THE TROPICAL WAVE TO MOVE W AND VERY LITTLE CHANGE
ELSEWHERE.

HISPANIOLA...

PRESENTLY THE TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING OFF THE COAST OF SW HAITI.
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS JUST N OF HISPANIOLA AT 21N70W. THE
RESULTANT ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION OVER HISPANIOLA IS
EXPECTED TO PERSIST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 31N73W TO TO THE N
BAHAMAS AT 25N77W TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AT 24N80W. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHON 90 NM OF THE FRONT. ELSEWHERE OVER
THE E ATLANTIC ...THE TAIL END OF A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT
EXTENDS FROM 31N26W TO 28N30W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90
NM OF THE FRONT. OF NOTE IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 29N67W ENHANCING SHOWERS. ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 19N48W ENHANCING THE CONVECTION E OF
THE TROPICAL WAVE FROM 16N-20N BETWEEN 45W-49W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA


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