[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 100604
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT THU OCT 10 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 11N28W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 28W AND
37W. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE ELSEWHERE FROM 6N TO
14N BETWEEN 26W AND 37W. THE OVERALL ORGANIZATION OF THE SYSTEM
HAS NOT IMPROVED...EVEN THOUGH ASSOCIATED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED SOMEWHAT DURING THE PAST FEW
HOURS. SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE DURING THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO BEFORE UPPER LEVEL WINDS BECOME LESS CONDUCIVE.
THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE LOW CENTER IS FORECAST TO MOVE
WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ABOUT 10 KNOTS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 17N37W 13N37W 10N36W
MOVING WESTWARD 15 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS
STRONG FROM 12N TO 13N BETWEEN 35W AND 37W. SOME OF THIS
PRECIPITATION MAY BE RELATED TO THE 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER
THAT IS NEAR 11N28W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 23N47W 18N47W 14N46W...
MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 17N TO 25N BETWEEN
40W AND 49W.

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 74W/75W TO THE SOUTH OF
18N MOVING WESTWARD 5 TO 10 KNOTS. THIS TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA OF THE SAME MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
THAT WAS IN THE AREA 24 HOURS AGO. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS
HISPANIOLA...INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM THE COAST OF
PANAMA TO 12N BETWEEN 78W AND 81W. EARLIER STRONG CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION THAT WAS TO THE EAST OF NICARAGUA HAS WEAKENED.
REMNANT SHOWERS ARE FROM 11N TO 16N BETWEEN 78W AND 84W.
NUMEROUS STRONG THAT WAS ALONG THE BORDER OF HAITI AND THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC HAS WEAKENED/DISSIPATED AND MOVED
SOUTHWESTWARD. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE SURROUNDS
HISPANIOLA ON ALL SIDES. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
FROM THE CARIBBEAN SEA INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 17N TO 26N
BETWEEN 63W AND 72W. ISOLATED MODERATE ELSEWHERE IN THE
CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE SOUTH OF 18N TO THE EAST OF 70W.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL AREAS OF GAMBIA TO
13N20W TO 12N26W...THROUGH THE 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT
IS NEAR 11N28W...TO 9N35W AND 9N40W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM
9N40W TO 10N48W AND 9N53W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED
TO WIDELY SCATTERED TO THE SOUTH OF 10N TO THE EAST OF 30W.
RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE FROM 4N TO 12N BETWEEN 30W
AND 60W.

...DISCUSSION...

FROM THE U.S.A. EAST COAST...ACROSS FLORIDA...INTO THE FLORIDA
STRAITS...WESTERN CUBA...ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...INTO THE
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE
SOUTHEASTERN U.S.A. AND ADJACENT ATLANTIC COASTAL
WATERS...THROUGH NORTHERN AND CENTRAL FLORIDA...THE FLORIDA
STRAITS...TO WESTERN CUBA AND THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. COMPARATIVELY
DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE...AS SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...
COVERS PRACTICALLY THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE HAS BEEN BUILDING INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...COVERING
NEARLY THE ENTIRE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS
A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N75W...ACROSS THE NORTHERN
BAHAMAS...TO THE FLORIDA STRAITS. THE FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY
FROM THE FLORIDA STRAITS...ACROSS WESTERN CUBA...THE
NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...INTO THE
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...ALONG THE NORTHERN
COAST OF THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 120 NM ON EITHER
SIDE OF 32N73W 25N79W 20N85W 20N94W...INCLUDING IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG IN MEXICO BETWEEN THE GUATEMALA BORDER AND 94W.

THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 88W...

LOW CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT THE FOLLOWING ICAO
STATIONS...KMZG...KBBF...KBQX...KHQI...KGUL...KEIR...AND KIPN.
FAIR SKIES/CLEAR SKIES AT OR LOWER THAN 12000 FEET ARE BEING
REPORTED ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE AREA.

BROKEN LOW CLOUDS COVER THE NORTHERN SIDE OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN
AND PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA. BROKEN LOW CLOUDS COVER THE
ALABAMA COASTAL PLAINS.

FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
INCLUDING ACROSS HISPANIOLA...

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 74W/75W TO THE SOUTH OF
18N MOVING WESTWARD 5 TO 10 KNOTS. THIS TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA OF THE SAME MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
THAT WAS IN THE AREA 24 HOURS AGO. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS
HISPANIOLA...INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG THAT WAS ALONG THE
BORDER OF HAITI AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC HAS WEAKENED/
DISSIPATED AND MOVED SOUTHWESTWARD. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE SURROUNDS HISPANIOLA ON ALL SIDES. SCATTERED MODERATE
TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM THE CARIBBEAN SEA INTO THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN FROM 17N TO 26N BETWEEN 63W AND 72W.

THE GFS MODEL FOR 700 MB AND FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT ANTICYCLONIC
WIND FLOW WILL COVER HISPANIOLA...WITH A SERIES OF SEPARATE EAST-
TO-WEST ORIENTED RIDGES. THE GFS FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT
A NORTHEAST-TO-SOUTHWEST ORIENTED TROUGH WILL CUT ACROSS THE
AREA FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. HISPANIOLA
WILL BE ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF A DIFFERENT TROUGH FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS AFTER THAT. THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE FROM 80W
EASTWARD.

THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO
THE EAST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-HISPANIOLA TROUGH. AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 29N61W 22N63W 16N64W 13N65W.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 10N74W IN NORTHERN COLOMBIA...TO
9N80W IN PANAMA...BEYOND 9N84W IN COSTA RICA...INTO THE EASTERN
PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
STRONG IN THE COASTAL PLAINS OF COLOMBIA FROM 2N TO 8N...IN
COLOMBIA WITHIN A 45 NM RADIUS OF 6N75W...AND IN VENEZUELA
BETWEEN LAKE MARACAIBO AND THE BORDER WITH COLOMBIA.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE
OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE 12-
HOUR FORECAST OF EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 8
FEET FROM 12N TO 14N BETWEEN 70W AND 73W.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW WITH A TROUGH
COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 32N BETWEEN 20W AND
40W. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N28W
TO 31N29W. A SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES FROM 31N29W TO 28N33W.
RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE NORTH OF 27N BETWEEN 24N AND 54W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CUT-OFF CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER IS NEAR 20N47W. THE CYCLONIC CENTER HAS BEEN DRIFTING
WESTWARD DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS
MOVING AROUND THE CENTER COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 12N TO
25N BETWEEN 40W AND 60W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 16N TO 26N BETWEEN 36W AND 50W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...FOR MORE
DETAILS ABOUT THE DISSIPATING FRONTAL TROUGH 31N29W 28N42W...
WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS FROM 8 TO 10 FEET TO THE
NORTH OF THE FRONT...AND ALSO TO THE NORTH OF A LINE 28N42W
31N54W. EXPECT WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 9 FEET
TO THE NORTH OF 29N TO THE WEST OF 79W. THE 24-HOUR FORECAST
INDICATES A 1008 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER...A POSSIBLE TROPICAL
CYCLONE...NEAR 11N33W. EXPECT NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 20 TO 25
KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS FROM 8 TO 10 FEET FROM 11N TO 18N BETWEEN
35W AND 38W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT


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