[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 081151
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT TUE OCT 08 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 9N27W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG FROM 9N TO 12N BETWEEN 22W
AND 27W. SOME OF THIS PRECIPITATION MAY BE MORE RELATED TO
THE MONSOON TROUGH THAN TO THE LOW CENTER. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT
OF THIS DISTURBANCE DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. IT HAS
A MEDIUM CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS WHILE MOVING SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
ABOUT 5 KNOTS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 22W TO THE SOUTH OF
17N MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION
IS PART OF THE MONSOON TROUGH PRECIPITATION.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 38W/39W TO THE
SOUTH OF 20N. THE WAVE IS MOVING AWAY FROM THE ENVIRONMENT
OF THE 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 9N27W.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 16N TO 19N
BETWEEN 36W AND 38W.

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS PUERTO RICO...
ALONG 66W/67W TO THE SOUTH OF 19N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KNOTS.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG FROM 15N TO 18N
BETWEEN 59W AND 61W. WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE
TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 12N TO 20N BETWEEN 60W AND 70W.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL AREAS OF SENEGAL
NEAR 16N17W...TO THE 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR
9N27W...AND TO 7N35W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 7N35W TO 5N41W
AND 2N46W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG ALONG
THE COAST TO THE NORTH OF 4N BETWEEN 9W AND 11W...AND FROM
7N TO 9N BETWEEN 14W AND 15W. WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG ELSEWHERE FROM 4N TO 13N TO THE
EAST OF 36W. ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 3N TO 8N BETWEEN 36W
AND 55W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS DIGGING THROUGH THE
EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE U.S.A...INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO...INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO.
THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH THE
1009 MB REMNANT LOW PRESSURE CENTER OF KAREN THAT IS NEAR
30N81W...ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA NEAR 28N82W...TO THE SOUTH
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 23N90W. THE FRONT CONTINUES AS
STATIONARY FROM 23N90W TO 21N93W AND 18N94W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...SCATTERED MODERATE
TO ISOLATED STRONG TO THE NORTH OF 28N TO THE WEST OF 77W.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG ALONG THE MEXICO COAST
BETWEEN THE WESTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA AND THE ISTHMUS
OF TEHUANTEPEC ALONG 94W. DISSIPATING IN THE COASTAL
WATERS OF THE NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA. HIGH CLOUDS
ARE STREAMING NORTHEASTWARD IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...
WITHIN 180 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT PASSES
THROUGH 32N78W TO 25N88W AND 18N95W.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF
27N TO THE WEST OF 88W...

LOW CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT THE FOLLOWING
ICAO STATIONS...KGUL...KGBK...KDLP...AND KMDJ. FAIR SKIES/
CLEAR SKIES AT OR LOWER THAN 12000 FEET ARE BEING REPORTED
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE AREA.

LOW LEVEL TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS COVER FLORIDA
IN MARIANNA. BROOKSVILLE IS REPORTING A VISIBILITY THAT
IS LESS THAN ONE MILE WITH FOG. SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW
CLOUDS FAIR SKIES/CLEAR SKIES AT OR LOWER THAN 12000 FEET
ARE BEING REPORTED ELSEWHERE THE U.S.A. GULF COASTAL PLAINS.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE
OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO
8 FEET TO THE SOUTH OF 20N TO THE WEST OF 95W.

FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 32N71W IN
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO 24N71W...THROUGH THE
WINDWARD PASSAGE AND HAITI...TO 16N74W IN THE CARIBBEAN
SEA...INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA.
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 28N64W TO A 1013 MB LOW
PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 27N64W...TO 25N66W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG FROM 20N TO
30N BETWEEN 58W AND 66W. SCATTERED MODERATE IS IN THE
SOUTHERN BAHAMAS/THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS. ISOLATED
MODERATE AROUND SOUTHERN HAITI COASTAL WATERS. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITHIN
150 NM OF THE COAST BETWEEN 73W FOR COLOMBIA AND 16N81W
FOR NICARAGUA.

THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS PUERTO RICO...
ALONG 66W/67W TO THE SOUTH OF 19N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KNOTS.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG FROM 15N TO 18N
BETWEEN 59W AND 61W. WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE
TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 12N TO 20N BETWEEN 60W AND 70W.

THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING
AT 08/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE
AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN...IS 1.24 IN GUADELOUPE.

UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA
TO THE EAST OF 70W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 65W.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 9N73W IN NORTHERN COLOMBIA...TO
9N80W IN PANAMA...BEYOND 9N84W IN SOUTHERN COSTA RICA.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...THE NUMEROUS STRONG THAT WAS
OCCURRING BETWEEN LAKE MARACAIBO AND THE BORDER WITH
COLOMBIA SIX HOURS AGO HAS BEEN WEAKENING WITH TIME.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA
WITHIN 150 NM OF THE COAST BETWEEN 73W FOR COLOMBIA AND
16N81W FOR NICARAGUA.

HISPANIOLA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE
WINDWARD PASSAGE/ACROSS HAITI...INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR
16N75W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE IS
IN THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS/THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS.
ISOLATED MODERATE AROUND SOUTHERN HAITI COASTAL WATERS.

THE GFS FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT HISPANIOLA WILL BE
SURROUNDED BY ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW WITH AN EAST-TO-WEST
ORIENTED RIDGE. THE 500 MB GFS MODEL SHOWS THAT ANTICYCLONIC
WIND FLOW WILL COVER HISPANIOLA...WITH AN EAST-TO-WEST
ORIENTED RIDGE. THE ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER
EVENTUALLY IS FORECAST TO BE ON TOP OF HAITI AT THE END
OF THE 48 HOUR TIME PERIOD. THE GFS FORECAST FOR 250 MB
SHOWS THAT A NORTHEAST-TO-SOUTHWEST ORIENTED TROUGH WILL CUT
ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE THE NEXT 48 HOURS OR SO.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N39W
TO 25N42W 16N45W AND 12N46W. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH
32N40W TO 30N49W AND 32N58W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTI-
LAYERED CLOUDS AND RAINSHOWERS ARE TO THE NORTH OF 32N36W
28N46W BEYOND 32N58W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED
STRONG WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 32N31W 28N36W.
ISOLATED MODERATE WITHIN 28N36W 24N40W 21N43W.

A SURFACE RIDGE IS ALONG 24N34W BEYOND 32N24W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...FOR MORE
DETAILS ABOUT THE 24-HOUR FORECAST COLD FRONT 31N35W 28N50W.
WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 TO 10 FEET TO THE
NORTH OF THE COLD FRONT. A SECOND 24-HOUR FORECAST IS FOR
A 1011 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER TO BE NEAR 31N79W. EXPECT
WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS LOWER THAN 8 FEET
TO THE NORTH OF 30N TO THE WEST OF THE LOW CENTER.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT

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