[Tropical] Tropical Weather Outlook and Summary

[EMWIN Server]

ABNT20 KNHC 071141
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT MON OCT 7 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A LOW PRESSURE AREA COULD FORM EARLY THIS WEEK ALONG A TROPICAL WAVE
THAT IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.  UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO GRADUALLY
BECOME LESS FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE DURING
THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS LATER THIS WEEK ARE EXPECTED TO MAKE
DEVELOPMENT LESS LIKELY...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
WHILE IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH.

A WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREA LOCATED ABOUT MIDWAY BETWEEN PUERTO RICO
AND BERMUDA IS MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWARD.  SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE LOW ARE DISORGANIZED...AND ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE UNFAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.  THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW
CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT FIVE
DAYS.

&&

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

HTTP://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?CODE=ETWO

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN

This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net