[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 061132
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SUN OCT 06 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1045 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

TROPICAL DEPRESSION KAREN IS CENTERED NEAR 28.3N 91.7W AT
06/0900 UTC OR ABOUT 87 NM SSW OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA MOVING
NE AT 2 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1009 MB.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT.
PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NHC PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO
HEADERS MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 KNHC AND THE NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.
KAREN CONTINUES TO HAVE AN EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CENTER. KAREN IS
EXPECTED TO DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW IN 12 HOURS. THE
REMNANT LOW IS THEN LIKELY TO MERGE WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM AND
DISSIPATE IN 36-48 HOURS...IF NOT SOONER. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS E OF THE CENTER FROM 25N-28N
BETWEEN 86W-90W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS FROM 16N23W TO
5N27W MOVING W AT 15 KT. THE WAVE IS WELL DEFINED AT LOW LEVELS
IN THE SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS. THE WAVE IS ALSO EMBEDDED WITHIN
A SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON THE SSMI TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
4N-11N BETWEEN 21W-31W.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 18N56W TO 8N56W MOVING W AT 12 KT.
THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE AS DEPICTED
ON THE SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 8N-15N BETWEEN 55W-60W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN FROM 20N63W TO 10N64W
MOVING W AT 5-10 KT. THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A SURGE OF DEEP
MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON THE SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 13N-19N BETWEEN
60W-65W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA AND ENTERS THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 13N17W. THE MONSOON TROUGH CONTINUES TO 12N21W TO
7N27W TO 6N32W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 6N32W TO 6N43W TO THE
COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA AT 3N51W. BESIDES THE CONVECTION
MENTIONED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVES...ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS FROM 3N-7N BETWEEN 30W-35W...AND FROM 5N-11N BETWEEN 43W-50W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL DEPRESSION KAREN IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO. SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. CONVECTION AND SHOWERS
COVERS THE MAJORITY OF THE NE GULF N OF 24N E OF 90W WHILE
MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. AS OF
0900 UTC...A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE NW GULF FROM LOUISIANA AT
30N93W TO N OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS AT 27N97W. SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT. THIS FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE E
AND MERGE WITH KAREN. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE COVERS THE ENTIRE GULF PRODUCING WESTERLY SHEAR OVER THE
CENTER OF KAREN. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS MEANWHILE OVER THE NE
GULF ENHANCING THE CONVECTION THERE.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN MOVING W. SEE ABOVE.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER CENTRAL AMERICA FROM PANAMA
TO GUATEMALA MOSTLY DUE TO A MONSOON TROUGH. SCATTERED SHOWERS
PERSISTS ALONG THE S COAST OF CUBA BETWEEN 78W-84W. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 78W.
A SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
NEAR 14N76W. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN.

HISPANIOLA...

SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE DIMINISHED OVER HISPANIOLA. EXPECT
DAYTIME HEATING TO AGAIN PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY
ESPECIALLY SINCE A TROPICAL WAVE IS APPROACHING. UPPER LEVEL
FLOW WILL PREDOMINATELY BE FROM THE SOUTH OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A SURFACE TROUGH IS E OF THE BAHAMAS FROM 30N66W TO 23N66W.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER A LARGE AREA E OF THE
TROUGH AXIS FROM 20N-30N BETWEEN 54W-66W MOSTLY DUE TO UPPER
LEVEL DIFFLUENCE. ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC
FROM 32N32W TO 25N35W TO 20N39W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90
NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC N OF 20N W OF 65W. UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE IS E OF THIS TROUGH.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA


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