[Tropical] Hurricane Local Statement

Fri Oct 4 17:12:49 CDT 2013

WTUS84 KMOB 042212
HLSMOB

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TROPICAL STORM KAREN LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
512 PM CDT FRI OCT 4 2013

...KAREN REMAINS DISORGANIZED...HURRICANE WATCH DISCONTINUED AND
REPLACED WITH TROPICAL STORM WATCH...

.NEW INFORMATION...
HURRICANE WATCH DISCONTINUED AND REPLACED WITH TROPICAL STORM WATCH.

.AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS LOCAL STATEMENT PROVIDES IMPORTANT INFORMATION AND
RECOMMENDED ACTIONS FOR PEOPLE AND MARINE INTERESTS IN SELECT
LOCATIONS OF THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION AND GULF COAST
WATERS AND BAYS FROM DESTIN TO PASCAGOULA OUT 60NM.

.WATCHES/WARNINGS...
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS...
UPPER MOBILE...UPPER BALDWIN...LOWER MOBILE...LOWER BALDWIN...
INLAND ESCAMBIA...COASTAL ESCAMBIA...INLAND SANTA ROSA...COASTAL
SANTA ROSA...INLAND OKALOOSA AND COASTAL OKALOOSA.

FOR MARINE INTERESTS...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH CONTINUES FOR ALL
OF THE BAYS AND SOUNDS OF ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA...AND
GULF WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PASCAGOULA OUT 60NM.

.STORM INFORMATION...
AT 4 PM CDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KAREN WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 25.9N...LONGITUDE 90.3W. THIS WAS ABOUT 350 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF MOBILE AL...OR ABOUT 370 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
OF PENSACOLA FL. STORM MOTION WAS NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 7 MPH.
STORM INTENSITY WAS 50 MPH.

.SITUATION OVERVIEW...
WHEN MAKING DECISIONS...DO NOT FOCUS ON THE EXACT FORECAST TRACK.
UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES IN KAREN'S TRACK AND THE CURRENT FORECAST
IS SUBJECT TO CHANGE. THE CURRENT OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR KAREN HAS A
TURN TOWARD THE NORTH AND A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ON SATURDAY. A
TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED ON SUNDAY.  ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF KAREN IS
EXPECTED TO BE NEAR THE COAST OF THE NORTHWEST FLORIDA PANHANDLE
EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. STORM SURGE MAY PRODUCE 2 TO 3 FEET OF TOTAL
INUNDATION FROM THE UPPER REACHES OF MOBILE BAY AND WESTWARD ACROSS
THE MISSISSIPPI SOUNDS TO THE ALABAMA-MISSISSIPPI BORDER. EAST OF
MOBILE BAY 1 TO 2 FEET OF INUNDATION IS FORECAST INTO THE WESTERN
FLORIDA PANHANDLE. DURING THE HOURS SURROUNDING THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE
SATURDAY EVENING AND INTO SUNDAY MORNING IS WHEN THE HIGHEST WATER
LEVELS SHOULD BE OBSERVED WITH A VERY SLOW WATER RECESSION DURING THE
DAY ON SUNDAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND GUSTS NEAR THE COAST WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN RAIN BANDS BEGINNING EARLY SUNDAY POSSIBLY INCREASING TO
45 TO 50 MPH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 4 INCHES WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER TOTALS UP TO 6 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY ALONG THE
COAST. 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED FURTHER INLAND WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TO AROUND 4 INCHES. ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE
POSSIBLE AS KAREN'S OUTER RAINBANDS APPROACH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY.

.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
ALL PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS SHOULD BE WINDING DOWN AT THIS TIME. CLOSELY
MONITOR NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER LOCAL NEWS OUTLETS FOR OFFICIAL
STORM INFORMATION. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE CHANGES TO THE FORECAST.

&&

.NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN MOBILE AROUND 1130 PM CDT...OR SOONER IF CONDITIONS
WARRANT.

ALZ061>064-050615-
/O.CON.KMOB.TR.A.1012.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
UPPER MOBILE-UPPER BALDWIN-LOWER MOBILE-LOWER BALDWIN-
512 PM CDT FRI OCT 4 2013