[Tropical] Hurricane Local Statement

Fri Oct 4 11:43:24 CDT 2013

WTUS84 KMOB 041642
HLSMOB

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TROPICAL STORM KAREN LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1142 AM CDT FRI OCT 4 2013

...KAREN WEAKENS A LITTLE MORE...SOME STRENGTHENING STILL POSSIBLE
BEFORE NEARING THE CENTRAL GULF COAST...

.NEW INFORMATION...
THE HURRICANE WATCH COULD BE CHANGED TO A TROPICAL STORM WATCH OR
WARNING LATER TODAY.

.AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS LOCAL STATEMENT PROVIDES IMPORTANT INFORMATION AND RECOMMENDED
ACTIONS FOR PEOPLE AND MARINE INTERESTS IN SELECT LOCATIONS OF THE
NORTH CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION AND GULF COAST WATERS AND BAYS FROM
DESTIN TO PASCAGOULA OUT 60NM.

.WATCHES/WARNINGS...
A HURRICANE WATCH CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS...UPPER
MOBILE...UPPER BALDWIN...LOWER MOBILE...LOWER BALDWIN...INLAND
ESCAMBIA...COASTAL ESCAMBIA...INLAND SANTA ROSA...COASTAL SANTA
ROSA...INLAND OKALOOSA AND COASTAL OKALOOSA.

FOR MARINE INTERESTS...A HURRICANE WATCH CONTINUES FOR ALL OF THE
BAYS AND SOUNDS OF ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA...AND GULF WATERS
FROM DESTIN TO PASCAGOULA OUT 60NM.

.STORM INFORMATION...
AT 11 AM CDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KAREN WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 25.6N...LONGITUDE 90.2W. THIS WAS ABOUT 370 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF MOBILE AL...OR ABOUT 380 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
OF PENSACOLA FL. STORM MOTION WAS NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 10 MPH.
STORM INTENSITY WAS 50 MPH.

.SITUATION OVERVIEW...
WHEN MAKING DECISIONS...DO NOT FOCUS ON THE EXACT FORECAST TRACK.
UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES IN KAREN'S TRACK AND THE CURRENT FORECAST
IS SUBJECT TO CHANGE. THE CURRENT OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR KAREN HAS A
TURN TOWARD THE NORTH AND A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ARE EXPECTED BY
EARLY SATURDAY. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY...WITH
AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF
KAREN IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR THE ALABAMA COAST EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
STORM SURGE MAY PRODUCE 2 TO 4 FEET OF TOTAL INUNDATION FROM THE
UPPER REACHES OF MOBILE BAY AND WESTWARD ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI
SOUNDS TO THE ALABAMA-MISSISSIPPI BORDER. EAST OF MOBILE BAY 1 TO 3
FEET OF INUNDATION IS FORECAST INTO THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE.
DURING THE HOURS SURROUNDING THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE SATURDAY EVENING
AND INTO SUNDAY MORNING IS WHEN THE HIGHEST WATER LEVELS SHOULD BE
OBSERVED WITH A VERY SLOW WATER RECESSION DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY.
WIND GUSTS ALONG THE COAST APPROACHING HURRICANE FORCE WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN RAIN BANDS...TAPERING OFF TO 35 TO 45 MPH WELL INLAND
OVER SOUTHWEST ALABAMA AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE. RAINFALL
TOTALS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER TOTALS OF 5 TO 8 INCHES
ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY ALONG AND TO THE EAST OF KAREN'S CENTER. ISOLATED
TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE AS KAREN'S OUTER RAINBANDS APPROACH TONIGHT
AND SATURDAY.

.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
ALL PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS SHOULD BE WINDING DOWN AT THIS TIME. CLOSELY
MONITOR NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER LOCAL NEWS OUTLETS FOR OFFICIAL
STORM INFORMATION. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE CHANGES TO THE FORECAST.

&&

.NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN MOBILE AROUND 6 PM CDT...OR SOONER IF CONDITIONS
WARRANT.

ALZ061>064-050045-
/O.CON.KMOB.HU.A.1012.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
UPPER MOBILE-UPPER BALDWIN-LOWER MOBILE-LOWER BALDWIN-
1142 AM CDT FRI OCT 4 2013