[Tropical] Hurricane Local Statement

[EMWIN Server]

WTUS82 KTAE 041600
HLSTAE

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TROPICAL STORM KAREN LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1200 PM EDT FRI OCT 4 2013

...KAREN WEAKENS A LITTLE FURTHER BUT IS EXPECTED TO RE-INTENSIFY
SATURDAY OR SATURDAY NIGHT...

.NEW INFORMATION...
NO CHANGES TO WATCHES AT THIS TIME.

.AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS LOCAL STATEMENT PROVIDES IMPORTANT INFORMATION AND
RECOMMENDED ACTIONS FOR PEOPLE AND MARINE INTERESTS IN SELECT
LOCATIONS AND COASTAL WATER LEGS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE
AND BIG BEND.

.WATCHES/WARNINGS...
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS...
SOUTH WALTON...COASTAL BAY AND COASTAL GULF COUNTIES.

FOR MARINE INTERESTS...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH CONTINUES FOR
PORTIONS OF GULF OF MEXICO COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO
APALACHICOLA OUT TO 60 NM.

ALTHOUGH WATCHES ARE NOT IN EFFECT FOR COASTAL AREAS IN THE
FLORIDA BIG BEND AROUND APALACHEE BAY...THERE IS STILL CONCERN
ABOUT RELATED HAZARDS IN THOSE AREAS...PARTICULARLY RELATED TO
STORM SURGE FLOODING.

.STORM INFORMATION...
AT 11 AM EDT...OR 10 AM CDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KAREN
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.6N...LONGITUDE 90.2W. THIS WAS ABOUT
490 MILES SOUTHWEST OF TALLAHASSEE FL...OR ABOUT 420 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF PANAMA CITY FL. STORM MOTION WAS NNW OR 330 DEGREES
AT 10 MPH. STORM INTENSITY WAS 50 MPH.

.SITUATION OVERVIEW...
TROPICAL STORM KAREN WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE IN A GENERAL NORTHERLY
DIRECTION TODAY AND INTO SATURDAY. THE STORM IS LIKELY TO TAKE A
TURN TO THE NORTHEAST LATER ON SATURDAY. ON A NORTHEAST COURSE
TROPICAL STORM KAREN WOULD PASS VERY CLOSE TO THE WESTERN FLORIDA
PANHANDLE OR SOUTHEAST ALABAMA SOMETIME ON SUNDAY.

KAREN WAS SOMEWHAT DISORGANIZED THIS MORNING. THE STORM SHOULD
MAINTAIN A FAIRLY STABLE INTENSITY TODAY...BUT INTENSIFICATION IS
POSSIBLE AGAIN ON SATURDAY AS KAREN NEARS THE LOUISIANA COAST AND
BEGINS TO TURN NORTHEAST. UNCERTAINTY IS SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN
NORMAL WITH THIS STORM AS THE TIMING OF THE NORTHEAST TURN COULD
MAKE A NOTICEABLE DIFFERENCE IN LANDFALL LOCATION ALONG THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST. GIVEN THAT...AND THE POSSIBILITY OF FURTHER
INTENSIFICATION...PEOPLE ARE ADVISED TO MONITOR FORECASTS CLOSELY.

.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR THOSE UNDER A WATCH...NOW IS THE TIME TO BEGIN PREPARING YOUR
HOME OR BUSINESS ACCORDING TO YOUR HURRICANE DISASTER PLAN. LISTEN
FOR POSSIBLE WARNINGS AND BE READY TO EVACUATE IF NECESSARY. HEED
THE ADVICE OF LOCAL OFFICIALS AND COMPLY WITH ANY ORDERS THAT ARE
ISSUED.

FOR INTERESTS AT PORTS...DOCKS...AND MARINAS...IT IS RECOMMENDED
THAT YOU PERFORM THE PRESCRIBED PREPARATIONS ACCORDING TO YOUR
EMERGENCY OPERATIONS PLAN FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES. IF YOU LIVE ON A
BOAT...BEGIN TO SAFELY SECURE YOUR CRAFT AND MAKE PLANS TO LEAVE
IT FOR ADEQUATE LAND BASED SHELTER. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

REGARDING THE COASTAL WATERS UNDER A WATCH...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD
RETURN TO PORT OR SEEK SAFE HARBOR.

CLOSELY MONITOR NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER LOCAL NEWS OUTLETS
FOR OFFICIAL STORM INFORMATION. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST.

&&

.NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN TALLAHASSEE AS CONDITIONS WARRANT.

FLZ108-112-114-050000-
/O.CON.KTAE.TR.A.1012.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
SOUTH WALTON-COASTAL BAY-COASTAL GULF-
1200 PM EDT FRI OCT 4 2013 /1100 AM CDT FRI OCT 4 2013/

...TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT...

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

NOW IS THE TIME TO PUT YOUR STORM SAFETY PLAN IN ACTION WHILE THE
STORM IS STILL WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA. PREPARE FOR THE
STORM'S ARRIVAL BEFORE THE WEATHER DETERIORATES.

CONSIDER STOCKING UP ON NON-PERISHABLE FOOD ITEMS AND PLENTY OF
WATER...ENOUGH FOR EACH PERSON IN YOUR FAMILY FOR THREE DAYS. MAKE
SURE YOU HAVE BATTERIES FOR FLASHLIGHTS AND A RADIO SHOULD YOUR
HOME LOSE POWER.

DO NOT WAIT UNTIL THE STORM GETS CLOSER TO MAKE THE DECISION TO
STOCK UP ON THESE AND OTHER PREPAREDNESS ITEMS. TAKE ADVANTAGE OF
THE QUIET WEATHER TODAY.

STAY INFORMED AND LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE CHANGES TO THE FORECAST.

&&

...PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL STORM/HURRICANE CONDITIONS...
THE CHANCE FOR HURRICANE CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME IS VERY SMALL.
THE CHANCE FOR TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME IS AROUND 44
PERCENT. THIS REPRESENTS A STEADY TREND SINCE THE LAST FORECAST.

...WINDS...
AS TROPICAL STORM KAREN MOVES CLOSER...THE THREAT FOR SUSTAINED
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS IS LIKELY TO INCREASE. BASED ON THE
LATEST FORECAST...SUSTAINED WINDS OF 35 TO 45 MPH WITH HIGHER
GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST OF THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE. IF FUTURE FORECASTS OF TROPICAL STORM KAREN SHIFT
FURTHER TO THE EAST...THEN THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS WOULD BE POSSIBLE.

...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...
IT IS STILL TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE THE PRECISE STORM SURGE AMOUNTS
ALONG THE COAST OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...THE GENERAL EXPECTATION
AT THIS TIME IS FOR A LOW IMPACT WITH STORM SURGE FLOODING WITH
STORM TIDE VALUES...THE COMBINATION OF STORM SURGE AND STORM
TIDE...AROUND 2 TO 3 FEET. THIS TRANSLATES TO 1 TO 2 FEET OF TOTAL
WATER LEVEL RISE ABOVE GROUND LEVEL WITHIN THE STORM SURGE ZONE.

MUCH AS WITH THE WIND FORECAST...FUTURE SHIFTS IN THE TRACK OF
KAREN TO THE EAST WOULD RESULT IN HIGHER STORM SURGE FORECASTS AND
GREATER IMPACTS IN THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE.

...INLAND FLOODING...
GENERAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. THIS COULD PRODUCE SOME
FLASH FLOODING PARTICULARLY IN URBAN AREAS.

...TORNADOES...
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES WITH TROPICAL STORM
KAREN. THE BEST CHANCE FOR TORNADOES WILL BE ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT.

...RIP CURRENTS AND SURF...
NORTHWARD MOVING SWELLS GENERATED BY KAREN WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT
PANHANDLE BEACHES TODAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. BREAKERS
OF 3 TO 6 FEET WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY...INCREASING TO 6 TO 12 FEET
BY SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS KAREN NEARS THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST. THESE WAVES WILL GENERATE LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS AS
WELL AS MINOR BEACH EROSION.

$$

FLZ115-050000-
/O.CON.KTAE.HU.S.1012.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
COASTAL FRANKLIN-
1200 PM EDT FRI OCT 4 2013

...COASTAL FLOODING POSSIBLE AS TROPICAL STORM KAREN APPROACHES
THE NORTHERN GULF COAST...

...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT FRANKLIN COUNTY
BEACHES THROUGH THE WEEKEND...

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

WHILE NO TROPICAL WATCHES ARE IN EFFECT FOR FRANKLIN COUNTY AT
THIS TIME...THE POTENTIAL DOES EXIST FOR COASTAL FLOODING AS
TROPICAL STORM KAREN MOVES CLOSER TO THE NORTHERN GULF COAST
STATES. RESIDENTS SHOULD STAY INFORMED AND LISTEN FOR CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST. BE READY TO ACT IF WATCHES OR WARNINGS BECOME
NECESSARY FOR YOUR AREA.

&&

...WINDS...
SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME. IF KAREN MOVES FURTHER EAST THAN ANTICIPATED...THE POTENTIAL
FOR SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WOULD INCREASE.

...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...
WHILE IT IS A LITTLE TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE THE EXACT MAGNITUDE OF
STORM SURGE FOR FRANKLIN COUNTY...THE GENERAL EXPECTATION AT THIS
TIME IS FOR A LOW IMPACT WITH STORM SURGE FLOODING WITH STORM TIDE
VALUES...THE COMBINATION OF STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...AROUND 2
TO 3 FEET. THIS TRANSLATES TO 1 TO 2 FEET OF TOTAL WATER LEVEL
RISE ABOVE GROUND LEVEL WITHIN THE STORM SURGE ZONE.

IF KAREN MOVES FURTHER EASTWARD THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST...STORM
SURGE VALUES COULD BE MUCH HIGHER RESULTING IN GREATER IMPACT TO
FRANKLIN COUNTY.

...TORNADOES...
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES WITH TROPICAL STORM
KAREN. THE BEST CHANCE FOR TORNADOES WILL BE ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT.

...RIP CURRENTS...
NORTHWARD MOVING SWELLS GENERATED BY KAREN WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT
FRANKLIN COUNTY BEACHES TODAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
BREAKERS OF 3 TO 5 FEET WILL BE POSSIBLE...ALONG WITH LIFE
THREATENING RIP CURRENTS.

$$

FLZ118-127-128-134-050000-
/O.CON.KTAE.HU.S.1012.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
COASTAL JEFFERSON-COASTAL WAKULLA-COASTAL TAYLOR-COASTAL DIXIE-
1200 PM EDT FRI OCT 4 2013

...COASTAL FLOODING POSSIBLE AS TROPICAL STORM KAREN APPROACHES
THE NORTHERN GULF COAST...

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

WHILE NO TROPICAL WATCHES ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL AREAS OF
APALACHEE BAY AT THIS TIME...THE POTENTIAL DOES EXIST FOR COASTAL
FLOODING AS TROPICAL STORM KAREN MOVES CLOSER TO THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST STATES. RESIDENTS SHOULD STAY INFORMED AND LISTEN FOR
CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. BE READY TO ACT IF WATCHES OR WARNINGS
BECOME NECESSARY FOR YOUR AREA.

&&

...WINDS...
SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME. HOWEVER...IF KAREN MOVES FURTHER EAST THAN ANTICIPATED...THE
POTENTIAL FOR SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WOULD INCREASE.

...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...
WHILE IT IS A LITTLE TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE THE EXACT MAGNITUDE OF
STORM SURGE FOR AREAS IN APALACHEE BAY...THE GENERAL EXPECTATION AT
THIS TIME IS FOR A LOW TO MODERATE IMPACT WITH STORM SURGE
FLOODING WITH STORM TIDE VALUES...THE COMBINATION OF STORM SURGE
AND STORM TIDE...AROUND 3 TO 5 FEET. THIS TRANSLATES TO 2 TO 4 FEET
OF TOTAL WATER LEVEL RISE ABOVE GROUND LEVEL WITHIN THE STORM
SURGE ZONE...PARTICULARLY NEAR THE HEAD OF APALACHEE BAY IN
WAKULLA AND JEFFERSON COUNTIES.

IF KAREN MOVES FURTHER EASTWARD THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST...STORM
SURGE VALUES COULD BE MUCH HIGHER RESULTING IN GREATER IMPACT TO
THE COASTAL AREAS OF APALACHEE BAY.

$$

GMZ750-770-050000-
/O.CON.KTAE.TR.A.1012.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
COASTAL WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
1200 PM EDT FRI OCT 4 2013

...TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT...

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

BOAT OWNERS AND CAPTAINS OF SMALL CRAFT NEED TO DETERMINE THE
BEST STRATEGY FOR SECURING THEIR CRAFT BEFORE CONDITIONS
DETERIORATE.

&&

...PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL STORM/HURRICANE CONDITIONS...
THE CHANCE FOR HURRICANE CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME IS VERY SMALL.
THE CHANCE FOR TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME IS AROUND 45
PERCENT. THIS REPRESENTS A STEADY TREND SINCE THE LAST FORECAST.
THE ONSET OF TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS COULD START AS EARLY AS
SATURDAY NIGHT.

...WINDS AND SEAS...
AS TROPICAL STORM KAREN MOVES CLOSER...THE THREAT FOR SUSTAINED
HIGH WINDS IS LIKELY TO INCREASE. BASED ON THE LATEST
FORECAST...SUSTAINED WINDS OF 35 TO 40 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS ARE
POSSIBLE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE.
IF FUTURE FORECASTS OF TROPICAL STORM KAREN SHIFT FURTHER TO THE
EAST...THEN THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
WOULD BE POSSIBLE.

SEAS WILL LIKELY BUILD TO AT LEAST 14 TO 18 FEET AS KAREN MOVES
CLOSER TO THE AREA...PARTICULARLY ON SUNDAY.

...WATERSPOUTS...
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR WATERSPOUTS WITH TROPICAL STORM KAREN. THE
BEST CHANCE FOR WATERSPOUTS WILL BE ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.

$$

08-LAMERS




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