[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 032346
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT THU OCT 03 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
TROPICAL STORM KAREN IS CENTERED 23.8N 88.9 W AT 04/0000 UTC OR
ABOUT ABOUT 315 NM S OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
MOVING N-NW AT 10 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 999
MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
PLEASE SEE LATEST NHC PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MAITCPAT2/WTNT32 KNHC AND THE NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 23N-35N
BETWEEN 87W-89W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED TO HEAVY SHOWERS WITH
EMBEDDED ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE E GULF AND NW
CARIBBEAN FROM 19N-31N BETWEEN 81W-90W INCLUDING PORTIONS OF
CUBA...THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...YUCATAN CHANNEL...AND THE N GULF
COAST FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO SE LOUISIANA.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION JERRY WAS DOWNGRADED TO POST TROPICAL
CYCLONE JERRY AT 03/2100 UTC. THE REMNANTS OF JERRY IS CENTERED
NEAR 31.8N 38.7W AT 03/2100 UTC OR ABOUT 686 NM W-SW OF THE
AZORES MOVING E-NE AT 12 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE
IS 1010 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO
40 KT. THIS WAS THE LAST ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
IS FROM 32N-34N BETWEEN 37W-39W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 30N-33N BETWEEN 35W-40W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 17N45W TO 11N46W MOVING W AT NEAR 20
KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE AS DEPICTED
ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. CLUSTERS OF ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 200 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 18N52W TO 11N54W MOVING W 5-10 KT.
WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF MODERATE TO DEEP MOISTURE AS
DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 180 NM EITHER SIDE OF
THE WAVE FROM 11N-14N.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC
NEAR 12N16W ALONG 10N22W TO 8N27W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES ALONG 6N34W 6N39W TO 8N46W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 6N-12N E OF 16W TO
INLAND OVER W AFRICA AND WITHIN 90 NM S OF THE MONSOON TROF
BETWEEN 21W-24W. A SURFACE TROUGH...PREVIOUSLY A PORTION OF A
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 23N49W TO 19N50W. ISOLATED SHOWERS
ARE WITHIN 90 NM E OF THE TROUGH N OF 21N.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
THE PRIMARY CONCERN THIS EVENING IS TROPICAL STORM KAREN IN THE
S GULF. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. A NARROW UPPER LOW COVERS
THE W GULF CENTERED NEAR NEAR TAMPICO MEXICO. THE UPPER RIDGE
ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL STORM KAREN COVERS THE E CARIBBEAN.
OUTER RAIN BANDS FROM TROPICAL STORM KAREN ARE PRODUCING SOME
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 22N-
30N BETWEEN 90W-92W. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE NE
GULF ANCHORED IN THE W ATLC. THIS IS ALSO LEAVING THE REMAINDER
OF THE W GULF UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING. TROPICAL
STORM KAREN WILL MOVE TO INTO THE CENTRAL GULF BY FRI INTENSIFY
TO A HURRICANE FRI NIGHT THEN WILL WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL STORM
AGAIN OFF THE SE LOUISIANA COAST SAT BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL SAT
NIGHT AND MOVING INLAND SUN. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE
TEXAS COAST IN THE WAKE OF KAREN REACHING FROM THE W FLORIDA
PANHANDLE TO THE W BAY OF CAMPECHE BY MON BEFORE BECOMING
DIFFUSE TUE.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
TROPICAL STORM KAREN IS STILL PRODUCING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. THE
UPPER RIDGE ASSOCIATED WITH KAREN COVERS THE W CARIBBEAN W OF
74W. A BROAD E/W UPPER RIDGE OVER THE TROPICAL ATLC COVERS THE E
CARIBBEAN AND COUPLED WITH THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE W CARIBBEAN
ARE INDUCING AN INVERTED UPPER TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM COLOMBIA
TO THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF 17N BETWEEN PUERTO RICO AND
CUBA. THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM COLOMBIA NEAR 9N75W TO
ACROSS COSTA RICA NEAR 10N84W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/
THUNDERSTORMS S OF 11N BETWEEN 77W-82W. THE REMAINDER OF THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN IS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING.
ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL STORM KAREN IN THE GULF OF
MEXICO WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING. WINDS WILL DIMINISH
QUICKLY LATER THIS EVENING WITH SEAS SUBSIDING BY TONIGHT.

HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE
ISLAND DUE TO THE UPPER RIDGE ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL STORM
KAREN. AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE W ATLC WILL DIP S ACROSS THE
ISLAND THROUGH THE WEEKEND PROVIDING INSTABILITY AND COUPLE WITH
THE PERSISTENCE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND PEAK DAYTIME HEATING
COULD GENERATE DAILY AFTERNOON SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE UPPER RIDGE ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL STORM KAREN COVERS THE
W ATLC W OF 72W. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE W ATLC INTO THE
NE GULF OF MEXICO ANCHORED BY A 1021 MB HIGH OFF THE COAST OF
NORTH CAROLINA. A CUT-OFF UPPER LOW IS TO THE E CENTERED NEAR
25N67W COVERING THE AREA FROM 20N-30N BETWEEN 63W-72W GENERATING
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 21N-
28N BETWEEN 61W-69W. AN UPPER TROUGH IS N OF 30N BETWEEN 45W-60W
AND IS SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA AND A
SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS INTO THE REGION NEAR 32N47W TO
25N58W. A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE E ATLC ANCHORED BY A PAIR OF
1018 MB HIGHS NEAR 26N34W AND 33N32W. W ATLC SURFACE RIDGE WILL
PERSIST THROUGH MON THEN RETREAT EASTWARD AS TROPICAL STORM
KAREN MOVES OVER SE CONUS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW


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