[Tropical] Hurricane Local Statement

[EMWIN Server]

WTUS82 KTAE 031559
HLSTAE

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TROPICAL STORM KAREN LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1159 AM EDT THU OCT 3 2013

...HURRICANE WATCHES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...

.NEW INFORMATION...
TROPICAL STORM KAREN HAS STRENGTHENED WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS
NEAR 65 MPH. HURRICANE WATCHES REMAIN IN EFFECT FROM INDIAN PASS
WESTWARD.

.AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS LOCAL STATEMENT PROVIDES IMPORTANT INFORMATION AND
RECOMMENDED ACTIONS FOR PEOPLE AND MARINE INTERESTS IN SELECT
LOCATIONS AND COASTAL WATER LEGS OF THE EASTERN FLORIDA
PANHANDLE AND FLORIDA BIG BEND.

.WATCHES/WARNINGS...
A HURRICANE WATCH CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS...SOUTH
WALTON...COASTAL BAY AND COASTAL GULF.

FOR MARINE INTERESTS...A HURRICANE WATCH CONTINUES FOR PORTIONS
OF GULF OF MEXICO COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO APALACHICOLA.

.STORM INFORMATION...
AT 11 AM EDT...OR 10 AM CDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KAREN
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.2N...LONGITUDE 87.9W. THIS WAS ABOUT
610 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF TALLAHASSEE FL...OR ABOUT 570 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF PANAMA CITY FL. STORM MOTION WAS NNW AT 12
MPH. STORM INTENSITY WAS 65 MPH.

.SITUATION OVERVIEW...
TROPICAL STORM KAREN WILL MOVE NORTH NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON AND GRADUALLY INTENSIFY.
THE STORM WILL TURN MORE TO THE NORTH AND EVENTUALLY NORTH
NORTHEAST BY THE WEEKEND INCREASING THE THREAT FOR A LANDFALL
SOMEWHERE ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST BY SATURDAY EVENING OR
SUNDAY.

.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR THOSE UNDER A WATCH...NOW IS THE TIME TO BEGIN PREPARING YOUR
HOME OR BUSINESS ACCORDING TO YOUR HURRICANE DISASTER PLAN. LISTEN
FOR POSSIBLE WARNINGS AND BE READY TO EVACUATE IF NECESSARY. HEED
THE ADVICE OF LOCAL OFFICIALS AND COMPLY WITH ANY ORDERS THAT ARE
ISSUED.

FOR INTERESTS AT PORTS...DOCKS...AND MARINAS...IT IS RECOMMENDED
THAT YOU PERFORM THE PRESCRIBED PREPARATIONS ACCORDING TO YOUR
EMERGENCY OPERATIONS PLAN FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES. IF YOU LIVE ON A
BOAT...BEGIN TO SAFELY SECURE YOUR CRAFT AND MAKE PLANS TO LEAVE
IT FOR ADEQUATE LAND BASED SHELTER. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

CLOSELY MONITOR NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER LOCAL NEWS OUTLETS
FOR OFFICIAL STORM INFORMATION. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE CHANGES TO THE
FORECAST.

&&

.NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN TALLAHASSEE AS CONDITIONS WARRANT.

FLZ108-112-114-032300-
/O.CON.KTAE.HU.A.1012.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
SOUTH WALTON-COASTAL BAY-COASTAL GULF-
1159 AM EDT THU OCT 3 2013 /1059 AM CDT THU OCT 3 2013/

...HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT...

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

NOW IS THE TIME TO PUT YOUR HURRICANE SAFETY PLAN IN ACTION. WHILE
THE STORM IS STILL WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA NOW IS THE TIME
TO MAKE PREPARATION FOR THE STORM'S ARRIVAL BEFORE THE WEATHER
DETERIORATES.

CONSIDER STOCKING UP ON NON-PERISHABLE FOOD ITEMS AND PLENTY OF
WATER...ENOUGH FOR EACH PERSON IN YOUR FAMILY FOR THREE DAYS. MAKE
SURE YOU HAVE BATTERIES FOR FLASHLIGHTS AND A RADIO SHOULD YOUR
HOME LOSE POWER.

DO NOT WAIT UNTIL THE STORM GETS CLOSER TO MAKE THE DECISION TO
STOCK UP ON THESE AND OTHER HURRICANE PREPAREDNESS ITEMS. TAKE
ADVANTAGE OF THE QUIET WEATHER TODAY.

&&

...PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL STORM/HURRICANE CONDITIONS...
THE CHANCE FOR SUSTAINED HURRICANE CONDITIONS IS AROUND 5
PERCENT. THE CHANCE FOR SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS IS
AROUND 50 PERCENT.

...WINDS...
AS TROPICAL STORM KAREN MOVES CLOSER...THE THREAT FOR SUSTAINED
HIGH WINDS IS LIKELY TO INCREASE. BASED ON THE LATEST
FORECAST...SUSTAINED WINDS OF 35 TO 45 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS ARE
POSSIBLE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. IF
FUTURE FORECASTS OF TROPICAL STORM KAREN SHIFT FURTHER TO THE
EAST...THEN THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
WITH GUSTS TO HURRICANE FORCE WOULD BE POSSIBLE.

...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...
WHILE IT IS STILL A LITTLE TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE THE PRECISE
STORM SURGE AMOUNTS ALONG THE COAST OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...THE
GENERAL EXPECTATION AT THIS TIME IS FOR A LOW IMPACT WITH STORM
SURGE FLOODING WITH STORM TIDE VALUES...THE COMBINATION OF STORM
SURGE AND STORM TIDE...AROUND 2 TO 3 FEET. THIS TRANSLATES TO 1 TO
2 FEET OF TOTAL WATER LEVEL RISE ABOVE GROUND LEVEL WITHIN THE
STORM SURGE ZONE.

MUCH AS WITH THE WIND FORECAST...FUTURE SHIFTS IN THE TRACK OF
KAREN TO THE EAST WOULD RESULT IN HIGHER STORM SURGE FORECASTS AND
GREATER IMPACTS IN THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE.

...INLAND FLOODING...
SOILS IN THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE REMAIN SATURATED AFTER RECENT
RAINFALL OF THE LAST COUPLE OF MONTHS. WHILE IT IS TOO EARLY TO
PREDICT EXACT RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH KAREN...THE POTENTIAL FOR
FLOODING IS INCREASING...ESPECIALLY IF KAREN MOVES FURTHER TO THE
EAST AND BRINGS HEAVIER RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO THE REGION.

$$

FLZ115-032300-
/O.NEW.KTAE.HU.S.1012.131003T1559Z-000000T0000Z/
COASTAL FRANKLIN-
1159 AM EDT THU OCT 3 2013

...STORM SURGE POSSIBLE WITH TROPICAL STORM KAREN ALONG THE
FLORIDA BIG BEND COAST...

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

WHILE NO TROPICAL WATCHES ARE IN EFFECT FOR FRANKLIN COUNTY AT
THIS TIME...THE POTENTIAL DOES EXIST FOR COASTAL FLOODING AS
TROPICAL STORM KAREN MOVES CLOSER TO THE NORTHERN GULF COAST
STATES. RESIDENTS SHOULD STAY INFORMED AND LISTEN FOR CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST. BE READY TO ACT IF WATCHES OR WARNINGS BECOME
NECESSARY FOR YOUR AREA.

&&

...WINDS...
SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE...THOUGH NOT
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. IF KAREN MOVES FURTHER EAST THAN
ANTICIPATED...THE POTENTIAL FOR SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS WOULD INCREASE.

...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...
WHILE IT IS A LITTLE TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE THE EXACT MAGNITUDE OF
STORM SURGE FOR FRANKLIN COUNTY...THE GENERAL EXPECTATION AT THIS
TIME IS FOR A LOW IMPACT WITH STORM SURGE FLOODING WITH STORM TIDE
VALUES...THE COMBINATION OF STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...AROUND 2
TO 3 FEET. THIS TRANSLATES TO 1 TO 2 FEET OF TOTAL WATER LEVEL
RISE ABOVE GROUND LEVEL WITHIN THE STORM SURGE ZONE.

IF KAREN MOVES FURTHER EASTWARD THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST...STORM
SURGE VALUES COULD BE MUCH HIGHER RESULTING IN GREATER IMPACT TO
FRANKLIN COUNTY.

$$

FLZ118-127-128-134-032300-
/O.NEW.KTAE.HU.S.1012.131003T1559Z-000000T0000Z/
COASTAL JEFFERSON-COASTAL WAKULLA-COASTAL TAYLOR-COASTAL DIXIE-
1159 AM EDT THU OCT 3 2013

...STORM SURGE POSSIBLE WITH TROPICAL STORM KAREN ALONG THE
FLORIDA BIG BEND COAST...

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

WHILE NO TROPICAL WATCHES ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL AREAS OF
APALACHEE BAY AT THIS TIME...THE POTENTIAL DOES EXIST FOR COASTAL
FLOODING AS TROPICAL STORM KAREN MOVES CLOSER TO THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST STATES. RESIDENTS SHOULD STAY INFORMED AND LISTEN FOR
CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. BE READY TO ACT IF WATCHES OR WARNINGS
BECOME NECESSARY FOR YOUR AREA.

&&

...WINDS...
SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE...THOUGH NOT
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. IF KAREN MOVES FURTHER EAST THAN
ANTICIPATED...THE POTENTIAL FOR SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS WOULD INCREASE.

...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...
WHILE IT IS A LITTLE TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE THE EXACT MAGNITUDE OF
STORM SURGE FOR AREAS IN APALACHEE BAY...THE GENERAL EXPECTATION AT
THIS TIME IS FOR A LOW TO MODERATE IMPACT WITH STORM SURGE
FLOODING WITH STORM TIDE VALUES...THE COMBINATION OF STORM SURGE
AND STORM TIDE...AROUND 3 TO 5 FEET. THIS TRANSLATES TO 2 TO 4 FEET
OF TOTAL WATER LEVEL RISE ABOVE GROUND LEVEL WITHIN THE STORM
SURGE ZONE...PARTICULARLY NEAR THE HEAD OF APALACHEE BAY IN
WAKULLA AND JEFFERSON COUNTIES.

IF KAREN MOVES FURTHER EASTWARD THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST...STORM
SURGE VALUES COULD BE MUCH HIGHER RESULTING IN GREATER IMPACT TO
THE COASTAL AREAS OF APALACHEE BAY.

$$

GMZ750-770-032300-
/O.CON.KTAE.HU.A.1012.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
COASTAL WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
1159 AM EDT THU OCT 3 2013

...HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT...

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

BOAT OWNERS AND CAPTAINS OF SMALL CRAFT NEED TO DETERMINE THE
BEST STRATEGY FOR SECURING THEIR CRAFT BEFORE CONDITIONS
DETERIORATE.

&&

...PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL STORM/HURRICANE CONDITIONS...
THERE IS A 5 PERCENT CHANCE OF SUSTAINED HURRICANE CONDITIONS.
THERE IS ALSO A 55 PERCENT CHANCE OF SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS.

...WINDS AND SEAS...
AS TROPICAL STORM KAREN MOVES CLOSER...THE THREAT FOR SUSTAINED
HIGH WINDS IS LIKELY TO INCREASE. BASED ON THE LATEST
FORECAST...SUSTAINED WINDS OF 40 TO 45 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS ARE
POSSIBLE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. IF
FUTURE FORECASTS OF TROPICAL STORM KAREN SHIFT FURTHER TO THE
EAST...THEN THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
WITH GUSTS TO HURRICANE FORCE WOULD BE POSSIBLE.

SEAS WILL LIKELY BUILD TO AT LEAST 14 TO 18 FEET AS KAREN MOVES
CLOSER TO THE AREA...PARTICULARLY ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

$$

GODSEY



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