[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 010601
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT TUE OCT 01 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
TROPICAL STORM JERRY IS CENTERED NEAR 27.4N 43.8W AT 01/0300 UTC
OR ABOUT 1130 NM E OF BERMUDA AND ABOUT 1060 NM WSW OF THE
AZORES MOVING E AT 7 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
1005 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55
KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 25N-30N BETWEEN 41W-
45W. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED ALONG 81W PROVIDING FOCUS FOR LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
FROM 14N-18N BETWEEN 79W-82W. A RECENT ASCAT PASS AROUND 01/0222
UTC INDICATED THE TROUGH AXIS WITH A SURFACE LOW CIRCULATION
CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF NICARAGUA NEAR 13N82W. THE STRONGEST
WINDS ARE NOTED ON THE PASS NE OF THIS WEAK LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER FROM 14N-19N BETWEEN 79W-81W...LIKELY
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE DEEPER CONVECTION.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 05N25W TO 16N23W MOVING W AT 15-20
KT. THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH A MAXIMUM IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER IMAGERY THAT REMAINS SOUTH OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IN
THE VICINITY OF 09N24W. THIS ALONG WITH AN INTERESTING BROAD
CYCLONIC CLOUD PRESENTATION S OF 13N IS GENERATING SCATTERED
MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 07N-12N BETWEEN 23W-
33W.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 09N39W TO 21N36W MOVING W AT 15 KT.
THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A VERY MOIST ENVIRONMENT AS NOTED
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY WHICH REMAINS STRETCHED FROM
08N-21N BETWEEN 31W-40W AND CONTINUES TO COINCIDE WITH SURFACE
TO 700 MB TROUGHING AND A RELATIVE VORTICITY MAXIMUM ALONG THE
WAVE AXIS NEAR 16N. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 09N-22N
BETWEEN 35W-42W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 18N16W TO
16N20W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
09N42W TO 06N54W. OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE
TROPICAL WAVES...NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION IS NOTED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT PERSISTS BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED NEAR
22N92W AND A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER NORTHERN
LOUISIANA NEAR 32N93W AND THE ASSOCIATED TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING
SW TO A BASE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO NEAR 28N101W. WEAK MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE N OF 25N BETWEEN 86W-94W IS GENERATING
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ACROSS THIS AREA WITH LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE AND A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS TRAILING SOUTHWESTWARD OVER
THE WESTERN GULF FROM 23N-27N AND INLAND AREAS OF NE MEXICO. THE
REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF E-SE WINDS DUE
TO WEAK SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDING FROM THE MID-ATLC COAST AND SE
CONUS TO THE SW GULF WATERS. ONE EXCEPTION TO THE RIDGING IS A
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED FROM 22N86W TO 25N86W WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS OCCURRING S OF 27N BETWEEN 80W-88W.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN
NEAR 18N86W AND REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN RELATIVELY DRY AIR ALOFT
PROVIDING FOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND FAIR CONDITIONS N OF 15N W
OF 84W THIS EVENING. TO THE EAST...AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS
CENTERED NEAR 17N77W AND CONTINUES TO PROVIDE AN OVERALL UPPER
LEVEL DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT FOR THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND
PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. AT THE SURFACE ACROSS THIS
AREA...A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED ALONG 81W PROVIDING FOCUS
FOR LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
TSTMS FROM 14N-18N BETWEEN 78W-82W...WITH WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS OCCURRING ELSEWHERE FROM 10N-23N
BETWEEN 70W-83W. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN E OF 70W IS
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY DRY AND STABLE FLOW
ALOFT PROVIDING FOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND FAIR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO TUESDAY.

HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY A FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT IS OVER
THE ISLAND AS WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES AN UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED NEAR 17N77W. MOST OF THE MOISTURE NOTED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY AT THIS TIME IS MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDINESS...HOWEVER A FEW LINGERING ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WHILE MOST OF THE STRONGER
LIFTING DYNAMICS ARE LOCATED TO THE WEST OVER CUBA...JAMAICA...
AND THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY TRADES ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE FOR TUESDAY WITH AFTERNOON AND
EVENING CONVECTION EXPECTED DUE TO PEAK DAYTIME HEATING AND
INSTABILITY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OFF THE MID-ATLC COAST
NEAR 39N67W THAT EXTENDS A TROUGH AXIS SOUTHWARD ALONG 63W TO
24N. THE TROUGHING SUPPORTS A 1006 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 40N65W
WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR
32N61W TO 26N67W. WITH LARGE-SCALE MOISTURE TRANSPORT ONGOING
AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN THE VICINITY OF THE
BOUNDARY...WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE
OCCURRING WITHIN 180 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 32N57W TO
21N66W. THE REMAINDER OF THE SW NORTH ATLC WEST OF THE SURFACE
TROUGH REMAINS UNDER WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT EAST OF AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING FROM OVER THE CAROLINA COAST NEAR 34N77W
SW TO 32N84W. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS COVER THE AREA W OF
67W. FARTHER EAST...ASIDE FROM TROPICAL STORM JERRY...THE
CENTRAL ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED
BY A 1020 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 26N57W AND ANOTHER SURFACE RIDGE
ACROSS THE EASTERN ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1018 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR
25N30W. A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PASS MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF
27N ANALYZED FROM 32N21W TO 28N31W. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
OCCURRING WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT...AND FROM 27N-
32N BETWEEN 31W-41W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN


This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net