[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 270005
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST TUE NOV 26 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. A COLD FRONT IS
ALONG 30N87W 19N89W. EXPECT NORTHWEST WINDS 30 TO 35 KNOTS AND
SEA HEIGHTS 9 TO 12 FEET FROM 22N TO 26N TO THE WEST OF 94W. A
SECOND AREA OF INTEREST CONSISTS OF NORTHWEST WINDS 20 TO 30
KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 TO 11 FEET ELSEWHERE TO THE WEST OF THE
FRONT. A THIRD AREA OF INTEREST CONSISTS OF SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 TO 10 FEET TO THE NORTH
OF 25N TO THE EAST OF THE FRONT. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS
FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE
FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4/FZNT24 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE UPPER
TEXAS GULF COAST TO CENTRAL MEXICO. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN
SUBSIDENCE...AS SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...COVERS THE GULF OF
MEXICO TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT RUNS FROM
SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA TO 24N93W...TO THE MEXICO GULF COAST NEAR
20N97W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM A 1003 MB SOUTH CENTRAL
ALABAMA LOW PRESSURE CENTER...TO 27N87W...TO THE NORTH CENTRAL
COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...TO THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC
OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN
THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...ON THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN SIDE OF
MEXICO...DURING THE NEXT 18 HOURS OR SO. PLEASE REFER TO THE
HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS
ABOUT THE STORM-FORCE WIND CONDITIONS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION
FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...SCATTERED STRONG TO THE EAST OF THE
LINE FROM THE YUCATAN CHANNEL TO 23N85W 27N85W 30N85W.

GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AT 18 HOURS
INTO THE FORECAST PERIOD. A COLD FRONT WILL BE JUST TO THE WEST
OF THE AREA. EXPECT SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS 30 TO 40 KNOTS AND
SEA HEIGHTS 11 TO 14 FEET TO THE NORTH OF 29N TO THE WEST OF
77W. A SECOND AREA OF INTEREST CONSISTS OF SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH
WINDS 20 TO 30 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS 9 TO 13 FEET ELSEWHERE TO
THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 65W. A THIRD AREA OF INTEREST
CONSISTS OF WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 9 FEET FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA THAT IS TO THE NORTH OF 19N TO THE
WEST OF 65W.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THE AREA OF THE NORTHERN COASTAL
GUINEA NEAR 11N15W TO 6N19W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 6N19W TO
5N26W 7N35W AND 6N44W AND 4N51W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
SCATTERED STRONG FROM 7N TO 10N BETWEEN 47W AND 53W. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 2N TO 10N BETWEEN 7W
AND 45W. NUMEROUS STRONG IN COASTAL SECTIONS OF FRENCH GUIANA
FROM 5N TO 6N BETWEEN 53W AND 55W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 88W...

LOW CLOUD CEILINGS ARE OBSERVED AT THE FOLLOWING ICAO
STATIONS...KMZG...KBBF...KBQX...KVAF...KEMK...KGUL...KHQI...
KGBK...KEHC.....KEIR...KSPR AND KATP WITH VISIBILITY 2 MILES OR
LESS AND FOG AND HAZE...KMYT...KIPN....KDLP...KMDJ...KAXO...AND
K9F2.

LOW CLOUD CEILINGS AND RAIN COVER THE TEXAS GULF COASTAL
PLAINS FROM VICTORIA NORTHEASTWARD. LOW CLOUD CEILINGS CONTINUE
IN SOUTHERN COASTAL LOUISIANA...AND AROUND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN.
RAIN IS FOUND ONLY IN THE SOUTHWESTERN HALF OF SOUTHERN COASTAL
LOUISIANA. LOW CLOUD CEILINGS CONTINUE IN SOUTHERN COASTAL
SECTIONS OF MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA. RAIN AND LOW CLOUD CEILINGS
COVER FLORIDA FROM PERRY WESTWARD...AND IN BROOKSVILLE. LOW
CLOUD CEILINGS AND RAIN ARE IN THE TAMPA METROPOLITAN AREA. A
MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILING IS BEING REPORTED AT THE NAVAL AIR
STATION IN KEY WEST.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND
THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4/FZNT24 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS
ABOUT THE CURRENT CONDITIONS...A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT IS
ALONG 23N84W TO 25N87W...BECOMING A WARM FRONT TO A 1010 MB LOW
PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 26N95W. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE
LOW CENTER TO 19N92W. EXPECT NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS 20 TO 30
KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 TO 10 FEET TO THE SOUTH OF 24N TO THE
WEST OF THE FRONT. EXPECT ALSO NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 20 TO 25
KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 9 FEET TO THE WEST OF 87W ELSEWHERE TO
THE NORTH OF THE FRONT.

...HISPANIOLA...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW IS MOVING
ACROSS HISPANIOLA. THIS WIND FLOW IS IN RESPONSE TO A MIDDLE
LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT PASSES THROUGH THE CARIBBEAN
SEA ALONG 17N60W 15N70W 11N78W. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN
SUBSIDENCE...AS SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...COVERS THE AREA.
FEW TO SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS ARE BEING REPORTED ACROSS THE AREA.

THE GFS FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHERLY WIND FLOW WILL
PASS ON TOP OF HISPANIOLA DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...WITH AN
EAST-TO-WEST/NORTHEAST-TO-SOUTHWEST ORIENTED TROUGH IN THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. THE GFS FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT
NORTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL PASS ON TOP OF
HISPANIOLA FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS...WITH A 27N61W ATLANTIC OCEAN
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER. THE GFS FORECAST FOR 700 MB
SHOWS THAT EASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL COVER HISPANIOLA WITH AN
ATLANTIC OCEAN RIDGE FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS. NORTHEASTERLY-TO-
EASTERLY WIND FLOW WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL COVER THE AREA
FOR THE REST OF THE 48 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD.

THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 17N60W
15N70W 11N80W...IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. CYCLONIC
WIND FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
ISOLATED MODERATE TO THE SOUTH OF 16N TO THE EAST OF 70W...TO
THE SOUTH OF 19N BETWEEN 70W AND 80W INCLUDING IN WESTERN
JAMAICA. WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG TO THE WEST OF 80W...INCLUDING IN THE YUCATAN CHANNEL...
AND IN EASTERN HONDURAS/NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA.

24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
26/1200 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...ARE 0.94 IN
CURACAO...AND 0.74 IN TRINIDAD.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES OVER BERMUDA...TO 28N72W...ACROSS THE
CENTRAL BAHAMAS...INTO THE WEST CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 8N75W IN COLOMBIA...TO 9N78W IN
PANAMA...8N81W IN PANAMA...BEYOND 9N84W IN SOUTHERN COSTA
RICA...INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG TO
THE SOUTH OF 11N TO THE WEST OF 78W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND
THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS
ABOUT EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 8 FEET FROM
12N TO 17N BETWEEN 68W AND 76W. EXPECT ALSO WINDS 20 KNOTS OR
LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 8 FEET ELSEWHERE TO THE EAST OF 68W. A
SECOND AREA OF INTEREST CONSISTS OF AN 18-HOUR FORECAST COLD
FRONT 23N83W TO 16N87W...NORTHWEST WINDS 25 TO 30 KNOTS AND SEA
HEIGHTS TO 8 FEET TO THE WEST OF THE FRONT.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES
THROUGH 32N26W TO 27N27W TO 20N40W...EVENTUALLY TOWARD THE
CARIBBEAN SEA. A STATIONARY FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N47W TO
28N53W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 28N THROUGH 32N TO 27N.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
TO THE NORTH OF 26N BETWEEN 20W AND 30W. RAINSHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE FROM 20N TO 26N BETWEEN 30W AND 40W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT1/FZNT01 KWBC...FOR
MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE NORTHEAST WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND 8
FOOT SEA HEIGHTS FROM 12N TO 17N TO THE WEST OF 55W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT


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