[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 222342
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST FRI NOV 22 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
GALE FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INITIATE BY 24/0600 UTC IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A COLD FRONT PROGRESSING SOUTHEASTWARD
CURRENTLY OFF THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COASTS INTO THE NW GULF OF
MEXICO. NW TO N WINDS OF 30 TO 35 KT ARE EXPECTED IN WAKE OF THE
COLD FRONT S OF 24N W OF THE FRONT. SEE LATEST NHC HIGH SEAS
FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE
DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 07N12W TO
05N17W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
05N17W TO 03N25W TO 07N34W TO 05N52W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 02N-13N BETWEEN 18W-29W. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM NORTH OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 31W-52W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW DOMINATES OVER THE GULF
THIS EVENING BETWEEN A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ANCHORED OVER
NICARAGUA NEAR 13N87W AND A VIGOROUS MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW
CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NEAR 31N118W. MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE ENERGY SKIRTING THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT ANALYZED INTO THE
NW GULF NEAR 30N94W EXTENDING SW TO 27N97W ACROSS EXTREME
SOUTHERN TEXAS AND INTO NORTHERN MEXICO. MOSAIC DOPPLER RADAR
IMAGERY AND LIGHTNING DATA INDICATE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
SCATTERED TSTMS OCCURRING N OF 25N W OF 93W. ISOLATED SHOWERS
ARE ALSO NOTED N OF 28N BETWEEN 88W-93W. OTHERWISE...THE
REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A GRADUALLY
WEAKENING SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1022 MB HIGH CENTERED OVER
GEORGIA NEAR 34N83W. EASTERLY FLOW IN THE RANGE OF 10 TO 15 KT
PRECEDES THE COLD FRONT WHICH IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP ACROSS THE
GULF THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH STRONG N-NE WINDS PERSISTING
THROUGH LATE SUNDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED OVER NICARAGUA NEAR
12N86W THAT IS PROVIDING MUCH OF THE BASIN E OF 85W WITH
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THIS
FLOW REMAINS DRY AND STABLE WHICH IS RESULTING IN MOSTLY FAIR
CONDITIONS AT THIS SURFACE THIS EVENING. W OF 85W HOWEVER...LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG WITH AMPLE MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF
THE RIDGE IS GENERATING AN AREA OF WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED TSTMS OCCURRING FROM 11N-20N BETWEEN 83W-91W...
INCLUDING THE GULF OF HONDURAS...AND INLAND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
AMERICA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. OTHERWISE...RELATIVELY QUIET
CONDITIONS PREVAIL UNDERNEATH THE STABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH ONLY A
FEW AREAS OF ISOLATED LOW-TOPPED SHOWERS OCCURRING ACROSS THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN N OF 13N BETWEEN 64W-70W AND THE FAR
SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN S OF 12N E OF 70W. LASTLY...TRADES ARE
FORECAST TO REMAIN 20 KT OR LESS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

...HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY SKIES REMAIN FAIR THIS EVENING AS OVERALL TRANQUIL
CONDITIONS PREVAIL. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES DRY AND STABLE
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS IN POSITION TO STAY FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS PROVIDING CONTINUED FAIR SKIES.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A DEEP LAYERED LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL NORTH ATLC WELL
NORTH OF THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 46N48W THAT SUPPORTS A SURFACE
TROUGH BOUNDARY ANALYZED FROM 32N39W SW TO 24N54W WHERE IT
BECOMES A SHEAR LINE TO 23N66W TO 26N75W TO THE UPPER FLORIDA
KEYS NEAR 25N81W. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING
WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE ALSO NOTED WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE SHEAR
LINE. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE SW NORTH ATLC IS UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1025 MB HIGH
CENTERED NEAR 35N69W PROVIDING THE BRISK NORTHEASTERLY WINDS
BETWEEN THE RIDGE AXIS ALONG 34N/35N AND THE SHEAR LINE AS NOTED
ON EARLIER SCATTEROMETER PASSES. FARTHER EAST...ANOTHER COLD
FRONT...ALSO SUPPORTED BY THE DEEP LAYERED LOW TO THE NORTH IS
ANALYZED FROM 32N29W W-SW TO 30N37W THEN SW TO 23N47W. ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE
FRONT. ACROSS THE EASTERN ATLC...A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF WEST AFRICA NEAR 20N20W THAT CONTINUES
TO ADVECT MOISTURE FROM THE DEEP TROPICS NORTHWARD TO 28N IN A
ZONE BETWEEN 10W-23W. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE IN
THE AREA COVERING 14N-28N BETWEEN 10W-22W...INCLUDING PORTIONS
OF COASTAL WEST AFRICA THIS EVENING. THE REMAINDER OF THE
EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED
BY A 1019 MB HIGH CENTERED WEST OF THE CANARY ISLANDS NEAR
29N23W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN


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