[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 181157
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST MON NOV 18 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.


...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
ALONG 32N55W 28N55W 17N53W 10N56W. A STATIONARY FRONT PASSES
THROUGH 32N49W TO 31N50W. A 995 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR
28N53W. A WARM FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE LOW CENTER TO 32N47W.
A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM THE 995 MB LOW PRESSURE
CENTER TO 24N53W AND 21N56W. A SHEAR AXIS CONTINUES FROM
21N56W TO 20N60W AND 19N65W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 17N TO 20N BETWEEN 46W AND 50W.
SCATTERED STRONG FROM 26N TO 32N BETWEEN 44W AND 50W. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 6N TO 20N BETWEEN
43W AND 50W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG ELSEWHERE
TO THE NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN 42W AND 58W. A SURFACE TROUGH
IS ALONG 18N51W 15N56W 11N59W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 10N TO 20N
BETWEEN 50W AND 60W.

ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE BECOMING MORE CONDUCIVE FOR
A SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL STORM TO FORM LATER TODAY OR ON
TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE OF BECOMING
A SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD
10 KNOTS. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM MAY BE FOUND
IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS THAT ARE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE.

GALE-FORCE WINDS...WINDS 30 TO 40 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS 13 TO
19 FEET OVER FORECAST WATERS WITHIN 240 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
AND WEST QUADRANT OF 995 MB. EXPECT SOUTH WINDS 25 TO 35 KNOTS
AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 TO 12 FEET FROM 19N TO 28N BETWEEN 44W AND
51W. EXPECT NORTH WINDS OF 23N EAST OF THE TROUGH TO 43W. EXPECT
NORTH WINDS 20 TO 30 KNOTS...EXCEPT SOUTH WINDS TO THE EAST OF
THE FRONT...AND SEA HEIGHTS 9 TO 14 FEET NORTH OF 25N BETWEEN
40W AND 65W. EXPECT WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS
8 TO 12 FEET ELSEWHERE TO THE NORTH OF 16N BETWEEN 45W AND 73W.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES ACROSS COASTAL GUINEA NEAR 9N13W TO
6N24W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 6N24W TO 5N28W 7N40W AND 7N47W.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG FROM 9N TO 10N
BETWEEN 24W AND 26W. ISOLATED MODERATE ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH
OF 11N TO THE EAST OF 60W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE
GULF OF MEXICO.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 29N75W...
ACROSS FLORIDA NEAR 28N82W...INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR
26N87W...INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 88W...

LOW CLOUD CEILINGS ARE OBSERVED AT THE FOLLOWING ICAO
STATIONS...KMZG...KVAF...KEMK...KHQI...KGBK...KEIR...
KSPR...KDLP...AND KMDJ. MIDDLE LEVEL CEILINGS ARE BEING OBSERVED
AT THE FOLLOWING ICAO STATIONS KEIR...KSPR...AND KIPN.
VISIBILITIES OF 3 MILES OR LESS WITH FOG AND HAZE ARE OBSERVED
AT THE FOLLOWING ICAO STATIONS...KBQX...KGVX...KEMK...KHQI...
KGUL...KEHC...KSPR...KMYT...KDLP...KAXO...AND K9F2.

OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS AND VISIBILITIES OF 1 TO 2 MILES WITH FOG
COVER THE TEXAS COASTAL PLAINS. OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS AND
VISIBILITIES OF 1 TO 2 MILES WITH FOG AND AREAS OF RAIN COVER
THE LOUISIANA COASTAL PLAINS. OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS AND RAIN COVER
THE STATIONS THAT SURROUND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...AND THE COASTAL
PLAINS OF MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA. MULTILAYERED CLOUD
CEILINGS...AND VISIBILITIES OF 1 TO 2 MILES WITH FOG AND RAIN
COVER FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE FROM TALLAHASSEE
WESTWARD. THE VISIBILITY IS 2 MILES OR LESS WITH FOG AT THE
TAMPA EXECUTIVE GENERAL AIRPORT...ICAO STATION KVDF.
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS...SCATTERED IN SOME AREAS...AND A LOW CLOUD
CEILING IN ST. PETERSBURG...COVER THE TAMPA METROPOLITAN AREA.
A VISIBILITY OF 2 MILES OR LESS IS IN PUNTA GORDA. A LOW CLOUD
CEILING IS AT THE NAVAL AIR STATION IN KEY WEST.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND
THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4/FZNT24 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS
ABOUT THE 24 HOUR FORECAST COLD FRONT 29N82W TO 26N97W. EXPECT
NORTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 8 FEET TO THE
NORTH OF THE FRONT.

...HISPANIOLA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
ALONG 32N55W 27N55W 17N53W 10N56W. NORTHERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY
WIND FLOW IS REACHING HISPANIOLA. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR...
APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY...ALSO COVERS
HISPANIOLA. LIGHT RAIN...AND MULTILAYERED CLOUD CEILINGS COVER
HISPANIOLA AT THE MOMENT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS IN THE WATERS THAT ARE TO THE SOUTH
OF HISPANIOLA...FROM 15N TO 17N BETWEEN 72W AND 75W.

THE GFS FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW
WILL PASS ON TOP OF HISPANIOLA DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW WILL BE INFLUENCING HISPANIOLA FOR THE
FIRST 18 HOURS OR SO. A TROUGH WILL MOVE EASTWARD...TOWARD
HISPANIOLA DURING THE REST OF THE 48 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. THE
GFS FORECAST FOR 500 MB IS SIMILAR TO THE FORECAST FOR 250
MB...EXCEPT FOR THE IDEA THAT THE WESTWARD-MOVING TROUGH IS
FORECAST TO WEAKEN AT 500 MB...GIVING WAY TO ANTICYCLONIC WIND
FLOW AROUND HISPANIOLA FOR THE LAST 12 HOURS OR SO OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THE GFS FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT
NORTHERLY WIND FLOW WILL PASS ON TOP OF HISPANIOLA FOR THE FIRST
24 HOURS OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE BASE OF THE TROUGH THAT IS
TO THE EAST OF HISPANIOLA EVENTUALLY REACHES THE ISLAND BY THE
END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

BROKEN LOW LEVEL TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS
COVER THE AREA THAT IS SOUTHWARD FROM PUERTO RICO AND THE
ADJACENT ISLANDS OF THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA
BETWEEN 60W AND 75W.

BROKEN LOW LEVEL TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS AND ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION ARE TO THE NORTH OF 18N87W 16N80W
16N72W.

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA
THAT IS TO THE EAST OF 70W. THE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
32N55W 27N55W 17N53W 10N56W MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.
MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE
CARIBBEAN SEA THAT IS TO THE WEST OF 70W.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 8N74W IN COLOMBIA...TO 9N80W IN
PANAMA...BEYOND COSTA RICA FROM 9N TO 10N BETWEEN 84W AND 85W...
INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE SOUTH OF 12N TO THE WEST OF 76W.
NUMEROUS STRONG IS IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN...FROM 5N TO 8N
BETWEEN 79W AND 82W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND
THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS
ABOUT THE NORTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS LESS
THAN 8 FEET WITHIN 90 NM OF THE COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N5W INTO
ALGERIA NEAR 27N7W...TO 23N19W TO 14N24W. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS APPARENT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N26W TO 22N30W...TO 10N37W.
THIS RIDGE IS TO THE EAST OF THE 995 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT
IS NEAR 28N53W AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N70W...ACROSS FLORIDA NEAR
28N82W...INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 27N91WW...INTO THE WESTERN
PART/SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS RIDGE IS TO
THE WEST OF THE 995 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 28N53W
AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...FOR
MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE 30-HOUR FORECAST OF A COLD FRONT FROM
31N73W TO 28N80W. NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND
SEA HEIGHTS TO 8 FEET TO THE NORTH OF 30N TO THE WEST OF THE
FRONT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT

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