[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 180005
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST SUN NOV 17 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC N OF 25N
BETWEEN 48W-61W ASSOCIATED WITH A STATIONARY FRONT THAT EXTENDS
INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 30N46W ALONG 27N50W TO A 1002 MB LOW
NEAR 25N53W CONTINUING ALONG 21N54W. A DISSIPATING STATIONARY
FRONT CONTINUES ALONG 17N56W TO 16N59W. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR THIS LOW TO ACQUIRE SUBTROPICAL
OR TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS WHILE IT
MOVES SLOWLY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWARD. THIS SYSTEM HAS A
MEDIUM CHANCE OF BECOMING A SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. SEE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL
EASTERN ATLC NEAR 09N13W AND CONTINUES TO 06N23W WHERE THE ITCZ
BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 07N37W TO 09N50W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 200 NM BOTH SIDES OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 15W-
20W...FROM 05N-10N BETWEEN 26W-30W AND FROM 07N-15N BETWEEN 44W-
50W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE SE GULF IN THE
MIDDLE LEVELS CONTINUES TO GIVE THE BASIN SW FLOW ALOFT. A
SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE NW ATLC EXTENDS AN AXIS TO THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...THUS PROVIDING THE BASIN WITH SOUTHERLY-
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW IN THE RANGE OF 5-15 KT. THIS WIND FLOW IS
USHERING SOME ISOLATED RAINSHOWERS AND LIGHT FOG MAINLY N OF 26N
E OF 97W LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES THIS EVENING. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN TODAY IN
ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT. THE FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE N GULF
EARLY MON. THEN ON EARLY TUE...IT IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND FROM
CENTRAL FLORIDA TO THE CENTRAL GULF WHERE IT WILL TRANSITION
INTO A STATIONARY FRONT TOWARDS THE WESTERN GULF.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
EXCEPT FOR THE FAR EASTERN CARIBBEAN...A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE DOMINATES THE BASIN WITH DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE SUPPORTING
FAIR WEATHER. IN THE SW BASIN...THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS
ACROSS THE COSTA RICA-PANAMA BORDER EASTWARD TO NORTHERN
COLOMBIA AND IS ENHANCING ISOLATED SHOWERS S OF 10N. AN UPPER-
LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDS AN AXIS SW TO THE
LESSER ANTILLES AND SUPPORTS A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM
13N59W TO 10N59W. THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS GENERATING
RAINSHOWERS FOR SOME OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. GENTLE TO MODERATE
TRADE WINDS ARE FORECAST ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION FROM THIS
EVENING THROUGH THU.

...HISPANIOLA...
ALTHOUGH THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOW DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT...NE
SURFACE FLOW IS GENERATING RAINSHOWERS ACROSS THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINOUS REGION OF THE ISLAND. THIS NE SURFACE FLOW AND
ACCOMPANYING SHOWERS WILL PERSIST THROUGH LATER TONIGHT. A DRY
AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE NORTHERN ISLAND ON MONDAY
SUPPORTING MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDING INTO THE
FAR EASTERN CARIBBEAN IS SUPPORTING THE FRONTAL SYSTEM IN THE
SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM ARE N OF 17N BETWEEN 42W-50W AND N
OF 23N BETWEEN 50W-57W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS E OF THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS EXTENDING FROM 13N59W TO 10N59W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 11N-13N BETWEEN 57W-59W.
OTHERWISE...SURFACE RIDGING DOMINATES W AND E OF THE FRONTAL
SYSTEM. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE NE FLORIDA COAST EARLY
TUE REACHING FROM NEAR 30N73W TO CENTRAL FLORIDA TUE AFTERNOON.
THE SURFACE TROUGH E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS WILL REMAIN
STATIONARY WHILE DISSIPATING THROUGH MON NIGHT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR

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