[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 141136
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST THU NOV 14 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO S OF 22N W OF
A GRADUALLY DISSIPATING COLD FRONT ANALYZED FROM THE FLORIDA
STRAITS W-SW TO THE SOUTHERN MEXICO COAST NEAR 19N93W. SEE
LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/
FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 09N13W TO
07N16W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
07N16W TO 04N22W TO 06N37W TO 06N44W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 03N-12N BETWEEN 27W-43W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS
ANALYZED FROM 09N50W TO 15N50W WITH ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION
FROM 09N-14N BETWEEN 45W-52W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY OVER THE WESTERN NORTH ATLC WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM
EAST OF NOVA SCOTIA NEAR 45N58W TO 35N63W TO A BASE NEAR 31N70W.
THE TROUGHING SUPPORTS A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT ANALYZED INTO
THE GULF VIA THE FLORIDA STRAITS NEAR 24N80W W-SW TO 23N88W TO
THE MEXICO COAST NEAR 19N93W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING
WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. WHILE MOST OF THE UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT FOR THE FRONT LIES N OF 28N OVER THE SW NORTH ATLC
REGION...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DOMINATES OVER THE BASIN THIS
MORNING ADVECTING MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE
EASTERN PACIFIC REGION OVER MEXICO TO OVER THE GULF IN THE FORM
OF MOSTLY BROKEN TO OVERCAST SKIES. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES
CLEARING SKIES ONLY OVER THE FAR EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE GULF N
OF 26N E OF 84W...INCLUDING MUCH OF FLORIDA AND THE SE CONUS TO
THE NORTH. A SURFACE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE TO THE
NORTH ACROSS THE SE CONUS AND SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH LATE
FRIDAY. THE CURRENT STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE WILL RELAX
SLIGHTLY AS THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO BECOME DIFFUSE WITH
LEFTOVER ENERGY DEVELOPING A SURFACE TROUGH BOUNDARY EXTENDING
FROM THE NE GULF TO THE SW GULF FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS
CENTERED OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN NEAR 18N75W AND IS
PROVIDING MUCH OF THE BASIN N OF 12N E OF 75W WITH DRY AND
STABLE AIR ALOFT. THIS IS RESULTING IN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH
ONLY PASSING ISOLATED LOW-TOPPED SHOWERS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
EARLY MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS ON THURSDAY. W OF 75W...UPPER
LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS MAXIMIZED WITH INCREASED CLOUDINESS AND
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS OCCURRING W OF 77W.
THE STRONGEST CONVECTION THIS MORNING IS ALONG A LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE LINE EXTENDING FROM 10N78W TO INLAND NE
NICARAGUA NEAR 14N84W. WITH A COLD FRONT LINGERING TO THE NORTH
ANALYZED ALONG 23N...TRADES WILL PERSIST IN THE RANGE OF 15 TO
25 KT THROUGH LATE FRIDAY UNTIL THE BOUNDARY WEAKENS AND THE
STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES GRADUALLY OVER THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND.

...HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY HISPANIOLA IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF DRY AIR AND
SUBSIDENCE ALOFT DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED SOUTH OF
THE ISLAND NEAR 18N75W. FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS AND MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES ARE RESULTING AT THE SURFACE FOR THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS LIMITING ANY SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY OVER THE WESTERN NORTH ATLC WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM
EAST OF NOVA SCOTIA NEAR 45N58W TO 35N63W TO A BASE NEAR 31N70W.
THE TROUGHING SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT ANALYZED INTO THE DISCUSSION
AREA NEAR 32N61W SW TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS NEAR 25N77W WHERE THE
FRONT BECOMES DISSIPATING INTO THE SE GULF OF MEXICO VIA THE
FLORIDA STRAITS. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 120 NM
EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. TO THE EAST...A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 32N58W TO 27N62W TO 23N69W WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS OCCURRING WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE
AXIS S OF 30N...AND N OF 30N BETWEEN 49W-60W. FARTHER EAST...THE
REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1043 MB HIGH CENTERED WELL
NORTH OF THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 48N19W. THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS
SW FROM THE HIGH CENTER TO 32N38W TO 25N50W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN


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