[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 132312
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST WED NOV 13 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2245 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO N THE OF
FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL AND SW PORTIONS TONIGHT AND WILL BE
CONFINED TO THE SW BAY OF CAMPECHE THU. SEE LATEST HIGH SEAS
FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE
DETAILS.

A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR FOR THE NW ATLC W OF THE FRONT
INTO NW AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS AND ADJACENT ATLC WATERS THROUGH
EARLY THU. SEE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC
NEAR 7N12W AND CONTINUES TO 8N17W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES ALONG 8N20W 6N27W TO 10N41W. THE ITCZ IS DISRUPTED BY
A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 15N48W TO 9N49W. SCATTERED
CLUSTERS OF MODERATE CONVECTION DOT THE AREA FROM 3N-10N BETWEEN
23W-42W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NW ATLC EXTENDS FROM THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES TO OVER THE SE CONUS SUPPORTING A STRONG COLD FRONT
THAT AT 13/2100 UTC ENTERS THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 25N80W ACROSS
THE FLORIDA KEYS AND CONTINUES ALONG 23N88W 21N93W TO S MEXICO
JUST E OF VERACRUZ. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE
CARIBBEAN IS GIVING THE GULF SW FLOW ALOFT. SCATTERED SHOWERS
WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 90 NM S OF THE
FRONT AND ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 90 NM N OF THE
FRONT. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS COVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE GULF S OF 29N. A SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES TO
BUILD S BEHIND THE FRONT ANCHORED BY A PAIR OF 1037 MB HIGHS
OVER KENTUCKY AND NE TEXAS. COLD FRONT WILL RACE SE ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF GULF TONIGHT THEN BEGIN TO DRIFT N ACROSS SE AND
S/CENTRAL PORTIONS AS A SHEAR LINE THU AND FRI.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE CARIBBEAN IS DOMINATED BY A LARGE UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN
THE N/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN NEAR 16N77W AND A SECOND UPPER HIGH NEAR
19N65W. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT
ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN E OF 75W. THE UPPER RIDGE IS PROVIDING
DIFFLUNCE ALOFT TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 16N-19N BETWEEN 76W-83W INCLUDING JAMAICA AND
FROM 19N-22N W OF 82W TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA INCLUDING THE
YUCATAN CHANNEL. A WEAK 1008 MB LOW IS IN THE SW CARIBBEAN NEAR
11N81W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 12N
BETWEEN 77W-80W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA S OF 15N W OF
77W. EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE GENERATING CLUSTERS OF ISOLATED
SHOWERS MAINLY FROM 13N-18N W OF 66W. GULF OF MEXICO COLD FRONT
WILL REACH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND N PORTIONS OF YUCATAN
CHANNEL TONIGHT BECOMING STATIONARY OVERNIGHT THEN DRIFT N AS A
SHEAR LINE THU AND FRI. SURFACE RIDGE N OF THE AREA WILL SHIFT E
FRI THROUGH SUN TO MAINTAIN MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS N OF THE
SHEAR LINE.

...HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY HISPANIOLA IS EXPERIENCING FAIR WEATHER. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY INDICATES DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT ACROSS THE ISLAND AND
COUPLED WITH THE UPPER RIDGE WILL LIMIT ANY SIGNIFICANT DEEP
CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE CANADIAN MARITIMES TO OVER
THE SE CONUS SUPPORTING A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT AT 13/2100 UTC
ENTERS THE W ATLC NEAR BERMUDA AND CONTINUES ALONG 28N72W ACROSS
THE N BAHAMA ISLANDS INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 25N80W.
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE
FRONT. A SURFACE TROUGH PRECEDES THE FRONT EXTENDING FROM 30N54W
TO 23N74W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN
60 NM OF THE TROUGH. THE LARGE UPPER RIDGE THAT COVERS THE
CARIBBEAN EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS FROM THE UPPER HIGH NEAR 19N65W
NE TO BEYOND 32N55W. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE
REMAINDER OF THE ATLC ANCHORED WELL N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA.
THE GULF OF MEXICO FRONT WILL REACH FROM 32N62W TO STRAITS OF
FLORIDA TONIGHT THEN STALL AND TRANSITION TO A SHEAR LINE FROM
32N52W TO CUBA THU NIGHT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW


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