[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 130559
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST WED NOV 13 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A GALE WARNING IS CURRENTLY IN EFFECT THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AS A COLD FRONT IS ANALYZED FROM THE BIG BEND REGION OF FLORIDA
SW TO THE NE MEXICO COAST NEAR 25N97W. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE PUSHING ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO BASIN AND PORTIONS OF
THE SW NORTH ATLC WITH GALE FORCE NE WINDS NORTH OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. SEE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 14N17W TO
09N26W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
09N26W TO 08N42W. A PAIR OF SURFACE TROUGHS ARE ANALYZED TO THE
WEST OF THE AXIS ALONG 45W AND 52W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS
NOTED AT THIS TIME ALONG THE ITCZ OR MONSOON TROUGH...AS WELL AS
THE SURFACE TROUGHS.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM OVER THE MID-
ATLC SEABOARD SW TO BASE OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY
NEAR 31N92W. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT ANALYZED FROM THE
BIG BEND REGION OF FLORIDA NEAR 30N84W W-SW TO THE NE MEXICO
COAST NEAR 25N97W. WHILE NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION IS NOTED
ALONG OR TO THE EAST OF THE FRONT...PLENTY OF MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO ADVECT NORTHEASTWARD FROM OVER
MEXICO TO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND INTO THE SW NORTH ATLC
REGION DUE TO SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW DOMINATING OVER THE
BASIN THIS EVENING. OVERCAST SKIES ARE NOTED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS AS THE COLD FRONT
CONTINUES TO SWEEP SOUTHEASTWARD DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO
WEDNESDAY. THE PRIMARY IMPACT FROM THE FRONT IS GALE FORCE NORTH-
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS IN WAKE OF THE FRONT DUE TO A STRONG
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND STRONG SURFACE RIDGING BUILDING OVER THE
BASIN THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY. THEREAFTER...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
AND ASSOCIATED WIND FIELD WILL RELAX SOMEWHAT WITH WINDS ABOVE
20 KT EXPECTED GENERALLY E OF 90W AND OVER PORTIONS OF THE SW
GULF S OF 22N.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN NEAR 17N79W AND INFLUENCES MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH
DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE FAR SW
CARIBBEAN S OF 12N AND THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN IN THE VICINITY OF
THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE INFLUENCES BOTH OF THOSE AREAS GENERATING ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS GENERALLY S OF 12N W OF 78W AND NW OF A LINE
FROM 16N86W TO 22N81W RESPECTIVELY. ANOTHER AREA OF ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS IS OCCURRING FROM 15N-18N BETWEEN 76W-82W.
OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN BASIN IS UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE DRY AND STABLE FLOW ALOFT WITH NO SIGNIFICANT
DEEP CONVECTION NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY.

...HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY A FEW ISOLATED LOW-TOPPED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS
THE ISLAND AND THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE...DRY AND
OVERALL STABLE NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY WHICH IS ANTICIPATED TO LIMIT ANY SIGNIFICANT DEEP
CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS LIES INLAND OVER THE MID-ATLC AND SE CONUS THAT SUPPORTS A
COLD FRONT ANALYZED FROM 32N77W TO THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST NEAR
32N81W. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH IS NOTED SW OF THE FRONT FROM
33N72W TO 29N78W. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLIES CONTINUE TO ADVECT
COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM OVER THE
GULF OF MEXICO TO OVER PORTIONS OF THE SW NORTH ATLC AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT N OF 25N W OF 55W. WITH PLENTY OF VERTICAL
LIFTING DYNAMICS TO WORK WITH ACROSS THE SW NORTH ATLC...
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING N OF 25N W OF 65W. THE
REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF SURFACE RIDGING ANCHORED BY A 1037 MB HIGH CENTERED WELL
NORTH OF THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 47N15W. THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS
FROM THE HIGH SW TO THE AZORES NEAR 39N27W TO 27N50W TO 22N70W.
A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE NOTED WITHIN THE MOIST
SOUTHERLY FLOW OF THE RIDGE N OF 26N BETWEEN 40W-65W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN


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