[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 110550
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST MON NOV 11 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 11N16W TO
10N19W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
10N19W TO 08N30W TO 05N40W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 48W. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 01N-11N BETWEEN 13W-43W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED
OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 20N81W THAT IS PROVIDING
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE GULF THIS EVENING. UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE CONTINUES TO ADVECT MOISTURE OVER CENTRAL AMERICA
NORTHWARD OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF AND THEN NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA INTO THE SW NORTH ATLC REGION. THIS MARGINAL
UPPER LEVEL LIFT ALONG WITH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG
A SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED FROM THE NE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR
21N87W TO 24N88W IS GENERATING WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED TSTMS GENERALLY S OF 26N BETWEEN 84W-97W. OTHERWISE...
EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS IN THE RANGE OF 10 TO 20 KT ARE FORECAST TO
PERSIST THROUGH LATE MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY WHEN A COLD FRONT
FOLLOWED BY REINFORCING SURFACE RIDGING WILL BARREL SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAIN STATES AND INTRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF
STRONG NORTHEASTERLY WINDS TO THE GULF TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN
NEAR 20N81W AND INFLUENCES MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH DRY AIR
AND SUBSIDENCE WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE FAR NW AND SW PORTIONS
OF THE BASIN...INCLUDING INLAND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS
MAXIMIZED EAST OF A LINE FROM 20N84W TO 09N76W THAT CONTINUES TO
GENERATE WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS IN THE
VICINITY OF A SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED FROM 10N81W TO 16N84W TO
22N88W. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION S OF 15N IS W OF 80W AND MOST
OF THE PRECIPITATION N OF 15N IS W OF 85W. THE REMAINDER OF THE
CARIBBEAN IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THAT DRY AND STABLE
NORTHERLY FLOW WITH NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION NOTED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY. HOWEVER...LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND POSSIBLE
ISOLATED LOW-TOPPED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO ADVECT ON BRISK TRADES
IN THE RANGE OF 15 TO 25 KT. LASTLY...AN APPROACHING SURFACE
TROUGH ALONG 60W EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES IS IMPACTING THE
ISLANDS AND FAR EASTERN CARIBBEAN WITH INCREASED CLOUDINESS AND
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO
MONDAY.

...HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY ISOLATED LOW-TOPPED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS THE
ISLAND AND THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO THE DAY ON MONDAY. OTHERWISE...DRY AND
OVERALL STABLE NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY WHICH IS ANTICIPATED TO LIMIT ANY SIGNIFICANT DEEP
CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
MOSTLY WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
THIS EVENING OVER THE SW NORTH ATLC ON THE NORTHEASTERN
PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER THE NW
CARIBBEAN SEA. WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING IS NOTED WELL TO THE
EAST OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 32N48W THAT SUPPORTS A COLD
FRONT ANALYZED FROM 32N41W SW TO 28N46W TO 27N53W. SINCE MOST OF
THE STRONGER UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE
DISCUSSION AREA...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE FAIRLY LIMITED
AND REMAIN WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE COLD FRONT AND
FARTHER WEST FROM 23N-29N BETWEEN 66W-76W. TO THE SOUTH...AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 23N47W TO 16N64W THAT
SUPPORTS A SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED FROM 07N-16N ALONG 60W. LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN THE VICINITY OF THE SURFACE
FEATURE ALONG WITH STRONGER MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE
EAST OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS GENERATING ENHANCED
CLOUDINESS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM 06N-17N BETWEEN 50W-62W.
THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
SURFACE RIDGING ANCHORED BY A 1033 MB HIGH CENTERED BETWEEN THE
AZORES AND THE IBERIAN PENINSULA NEAR 40N16W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN


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