[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 101757
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST SUN NOV 10 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE WEST
AFRICAN COAST NEAR 09N14W TO 05N30W TO 03N51W. SCATTERED
MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 03N-09N BETWEEN
19W-48W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED OVER
THE NW CARIBBEAN IS PROVIDING SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
ACROSS THE GULF WATERS. AT THE SURFACE...RIDGING DOMINATES N OF
26N W OF 94W WITH NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY FLOW IN THE RANGE OF 15-20
KT. SURFACE TROUGHINESS DOMINATES SOUTH OF 26N AS A TROUGH AXIS
EXTENDS FROM 26N87W TO 21N88W TO CENTRAL GUATEMALA NEAR 15N89W.
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE PRIMARILY EAST OF THE TROUGH
ALONG WITH UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS WITHIN 200 NM EAST OF THE AXIS.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE NE OF THE TROUGH AXIS FROM 26-27N BETWEEN
84W-87W. EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH
LATE MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY WHEN A COLD FRONT FOLLOWED BY
REINFORCING SURFACE RIDGING WILL BARREL SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAIN STATES AND INTRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS TO THE GULF TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY OF NEXT
WEEK. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE SW GULF STARTING
MONDAY NIGHT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A COMBINATION OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE...UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE AND A LOW WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT WITHIN 180-200 NM
OFF THE COASTLINES OF YUCATAN PENINSULA AND CENTRAL AMERICA ARE
ENHANCING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IN THE FAR WESTERN BASIN. THIS
CONVECTION IS ALSO ASSOCIATED WITH TWO SURFACE TROUGHS. THE
FIRST SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE SE GULF WATERS NEAR 26N87W
TO 21N88W TO CENTRAL GUATEMALA NEAR 15N89W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION AND TSTMS ASSOCIATED WITH IT EXTENDS TO 85W. THE
SECOND SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 17N84W...ACROSS EASTERN
HONDURAS...NICARAGUA AND COSTA RICA TO NORTHERN PANAMA NEAR
09N82W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION AND TSTMS
ASSOCIATED WITH IT EXTENDS TO 75W S OF 15N. THE REMAINDER OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE CENTERED IN THE NW BASIN AS WELL AS DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE TO
SUPPORT FAIR WEATHER. AN APPROACHING SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 57W OR
EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES WILL BEGIN IMPACTING THE ISLANDS AND
EASTERN CARIBBEAN OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS WITH INCREASED
CLOUDINESS AND PRECIPITATION LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

...HISPANIOLA...
THE ISLAND IS CURRENTLY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED IN THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA AS WELL AS DRY AIR
SUBSIDENCE WHICH IS SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER. MODEL GUIDANCE
INDICATES BOTH RIDGING ALOFT AND DRY AIR WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT
TUESDAY AFTERNOON FAVORING FAIR WEATHER.
HOWEVER...AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING SHOWERS ARE LIKELY DUE TO
DAYLIGHT SURFACE HEATING AND OROGRAPHIC LIFTING.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE
SW NORTH ATLC ON THE NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA. FARTHER EAST...A
WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT ANALYZED FROM
30N46W SW TO 27N53W WHERE A SHEAR LINE CONTINUES ALONG 26N64W TO
24N75W. WITH A LOW-LEVEL DRY ENVIRONMENT MOSTLY IN
PLACE...CONVECTION IS LIMITED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 70 NM
EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT AND SHEAR LINE. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE EAST OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS GENERATING
ENHANCED CLOUDINESS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM 28N-31N BETWEEN
39W-46W. AN UPPER-LEVEL SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WITH AXIS FROM 26N47W
SW TO THE WINDWARD ISLANDS NEAR 12N61W IS SUPPORTING A SURFACE
TROUGH ALONG 18N56W TO 09N57W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE LIMITED TO
09N-12N BETWEEN 55W-62W DUE TO STRONG WESTERLY WIND SHEAR
NORTHWARD. THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1034 MB HIGH CENTERED
BETWEEN THE AZORES AND THE IBERIAN PENINSULA NEAR 40N16W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR

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