[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 071229 CCA
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...CORRECTION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST THU NOV 07 2013

CORRECTED FOR SURFACE ANALYSIS BASED ON TIME

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A GALE WARNING GOES INTO EFFECT FOR THE SW GULF OF MEXICO AT
07/1800 UTC. THIS GALE IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT
CURRENTLY OVER THE NW GULF. WINDS WILL REACH GALE FORCE BEHIND
FRONT NEAR THE COAST OF MEXICO IN THE W/CENTRAL AND SW GULF
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRI NIGHT. SEE THE HIGH SEAS
FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE
DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 14N16W ALONG 13N19W TO 9N20W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES ALONG 6N30W TO 4N43W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM S OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 28W-44W.
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM N
OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 30W-43W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS N OF THE ITCZ
EXTENDING FROM 12N40W TO 8N41W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 7N-12N BETWEEN 30W-50W AND
WITHIN 180 NM ALONG THE COAST LIBERIA AND SIERRA LEONE.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD UPPER TROUGH MOVING FROM THE PLAIN STATES TO OVER THE
GREAT LAKES REGION IS SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE
GULF AT 07/0900 UTC NEAR ATCHAFALAYA BAY LOUISIANA TO INLAND
OVER TEXAS NEAR BROWNSVILLE. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE W OF THE FRONT TO INLAND OVER
LOUISIANA AND TO THE COAST OF TEXAS. A SURFACE TROUGH IS E OF
THE FRONT EXTENDING FROM A 1016 MB LOW OVER PASCAGOULA
MISSISSIPPI TO 27N90W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 60 NM EITHER
SIDE OF THE TROUGH. AN UPPER LOW IS INLAND OVER MEXICO NEAR
21N98W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE SW GULF SW OF A LINE FROM TAMPICO MEXICO TO S MEXICO NEAR
18N93W. A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH IS IN THE NE GULF EXTENDING
FROM PENSACOLA FLORIDA TO 27N86W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS N OF 26N
BETWEEN 83W-86W. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE IS ANCHORED OVER CENTRAL
CUBA COVERING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM THE SE GULF/YUCATAN CHANNEL NEAR 23N86W INTO THE NW
CARIBBEAN BEYOND 21N85W AND COUPLED WITH THE DIFFLUNCE ALOFT
PROVIDED BY THE UPPER RIDGE ARE GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 26N THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL
BETWEEN 82W-87W. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SE AND REACH FROM FLORIDA
BIG BEND AREA TO FAR W BAY OF CAMPECHE THIS EVENING AND FROM SW
FLORIDA TO SW BAY OF CAMPECHE FRI EVENING BEFORE STALLING FROM
UPPER FLORIDA KEYS TO W BAY OF CAMPECHE SAT AND BECOMING DIFFUSE
SUN.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE W CARIBBEAN ANCHORED OVER CENTRAL
CUBA NEAR 22N80W WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING NE OVER THE W ATLC
AND SW OVER CENTRAL AMERICA. A SURFACE TROUGH IS BENEATH THIS
UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE SE GULF OF MEXICO/YUCATAN CHANNEL
NEAR 23N86W TO 15N80W. THE UPPER RIDGE IS PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE
ALOFT AND COUPLED WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH ARE GENERATING
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 18N-22N W OF 81W
AND WITHIN 60 NM ALONG THE COAST OF BELIZE. AN UPPER TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC NARROWING OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
NEAR 17N62W TO NEAR 12N74W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 10N-13N BETWEEN 72W-79W AND
DOTTING THE AREA WITHIN 45 NM ALONG THE COAST OF VENEZUELA. A
SURFACE TROUGH IS BENEATH THE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 19N63W
THROUGH THE VIRGIN ISLANDS TO OFF THE COAST OF VENEZUELA NEAR
11N65W. THE TRADE WINDS ARE USHERING IN SOME ISOLATED LOW LEVEL
SHOWERS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. THE SURFACE
TROUGH OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN WILL LINGER THROUGH FRI. LIGHT TO
MODERATE TRADE WINDS WILL RETURN TO E CARIBBEAN TODAY THROUGH
FRI THEN INCREASE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ACROSS THE SW PENINSULA
OF HAITI WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
ISLAND. DAYTIME HEATING COULD GENERATE AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED OVER CENTRAL CUBA EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS
ACROSS THE W ATLC TO BEYOND 32N72W COVERING THE AREA W OF 65W. A
BROAD SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE AREA N OF 27N BETWEEN 60W-78W
ANCHORED BY A 1031 MB HIGH OVER THE N/CENTRAL ATLC. A SURFACE
TROUGH IS BENEATH THE UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING FROM 22N74W ACROSS
THE BAHAMAS ALONG 27N78W TO BEYOND 32N79W WITH A SECOND SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 26N70W TO 22N71W. NETHER SURFACE TROUGH IS
PRODUCING ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER. AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS INTO
THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 32N54W ALONG 24N57W INTO THE E CARIBBEAN
ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 19N63W SUPPORTING A STATIONARY
FRONT THAT EXTENDS ALONG 32N43W 31N48W TO 28N54W WITH A SHEAR
LINE CONTINUING TO 27N63W. A 1013 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 30N48W
WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING ALONG 25N52W TO 24N58W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 75/90 NM OF
LINE FROM 21N54W TO 30N42W AND FROM 23N41W TO 28N37W. THE E ATLC
IS DOMINATED BY A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A PAIR OF 1023 MB
HIGHS...ONE JUST S OF THE MADEIRA ISLANDS AND A SECOND NEAR
29N27W. W ATLC SURFACE RIDGE IS SHIFTING NE INTO THE N CENTRAL
ATLC. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE SE CONUS COAST THIS EVENING
AND REACH FROM BERMUDA TO SE FLORIDA FRI AND FROM 32N58W TO THE
UPPER FLORIDA KEYS SAT THEN STALL AND BECOME DIFFUSE SUN INTO
MON.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW

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