[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 060005
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST TUE NOV 05 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE FAR
EASTERN ATLC NEAR 11N17W TO 09N34W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS FROM 02N-11N BETWEEN 22W-32W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN GULF NEAR
24N93W EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS NE TO NORTHERN FLORIDA. THIS UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE IS SUPPORTING SURFACE RIDGING ACROSS THE NORTH-
CENTRAL GULF AND AN OVERALL STABLE ENVIRONMENT THROUGHOUT MOST
OF THE BASIN. STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM CENTRAL GEORGIA TO
WESTERN CUBA IS GENERATING NE TO E WINDS IN THE RANGE OF 20-30
KT E OF 90W. W OF 90W...E WIND VEER SOUTHEASTERLY ACROSS THE FAR
WESTERN GULF AND RANGES FROM 10 TO 20 KT. DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT
FROM AN UPPER-LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING FROM TAMPA SW TO
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND A BROAD RIDGE CENTERED SW OF JAMAICA
IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IN THE SE GULF S OF
25N E OF 87W...INCLUDING THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND THE STRAITS OF
FLORIDA.

A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO EMERGE OFF THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA
COASTS BY LATE WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY...NORTHEASTERLY
WIND WILL BE DOMINATING ACROSS THE BASIN.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS SW OF JAMAICA NEAR 16N77W.
DIVERGENCE ALOFT FROM A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED NEAR
THE SURFACE LOW IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND
TSTMS N OF 15N BETWEEN 68W-80W...INCLUDING
JAMAICA...CUBA...HISPANIOLA AND THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. THIS
CONVECTION EXTENDS EASTWARD AS ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS PUERTO
RICO. FARTHER WEST IN THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA...DIFFLUENT FLOW
ALOFT FROM AN UPPER-LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING FROM TAMPA
SW TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND THE RIDGE CENTERED SW OF JAMAICA
IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS N OF 18N W OF
81W. MIDDLE-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS SUPPORTING SHOWERS ACROSS THE
LESSER ANTILLES.

THE SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN INTO A SURFACE TROUGH BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT WESTWARD
THROUGH FRIDAY.

HISPANIOLA...
DIVERGENCE ALOFT FROM A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED SW OF
JAMAICA IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS
ACROSS HISPANIOLA AND THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. HIGH HUMIDITY AND
MID-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ARE EXPECTED TO SUPPORT RAINSHOWERS
THROUGHOUT EARLY THURSDAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A NARROW UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IN THE WEST ATLC SUPPORTS A FRONTAL
SYSTEM ANALYZED AS A COLD FRONT FROM 30N55W TO 29N58W WHERE IT
TRANSITIONS TO A STATIONARY FRONT ALONG 26N64W TO A 1011 MB LOW
NEAR 25N65W SW TO 22N70W. A SHEAR LINE CONTINUES TO 21N74W TO
EASTERN CUBA NEAR 21N77W. A CLUSTER OF MODERATE CONVECTION IS
NEAR THE LOW CENTER FROM 23N-25N BETWEEN 64W-66W...SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS ELSEWHERE N OF 22N BETWEEN 52W-63W AND S
OF 23N W OF 70W TO INCLUDE THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS.
TWO SURFACE TROUGH ARE FARTHER EAST...ONE FROM 19N50W TO 13N51W
AND OTHER FROM 15N35W TO 11N36W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
LIES BETWEEN THESE TWO TROUGHS FROM 14N-21N BETWEEN 36W-45W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR


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