[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 051200
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST TUE NOV 05 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

...ATLANTIC OCEAN GALE WARNING...

.AN ATLANTIC OCEAN COLD FRONT IS ALONG 31N57W 27N65.5W...THEN
AS A WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT FROM 27N65.5W TO 22N78W.
WITHIN 60 NM OF THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA...TO THE NORTH OF
24.5N NORTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 30 KNOTS WITH FREQUENT GUSTS TO
35 KT. SEA HEIGHTS RANGING FROM 8 TO 14 FT. ELSEWHERE TO THE
NORTHWEST OF THE FRONT NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 30 KNOTS
AND SEA HEIGHTS RANGING FROM 8 TO 14 FT TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE
BAHAMAS...AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 8 FEET LEE OF THE BAHAMAS.
REMAINDER OF AREA S OF 27N WITHIN 90 NM SE OF FRONT WINDS 20
KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 9 FEET IN NE SWELL. PLEASE READ
THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

NO TROPICAL WAVES ARE ON THE 05/0600 UTC SURFACE MAP.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES ACROSS COASTAL AFRICA THROUGH THE
COASTAL AREAS OF SENEGAL AND GAMBIA...TO 10N21W. THE ITCZ
CONTINUES FROM 10N21W TO 7N30W AND 6N43W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG FROM 7N TO 9N BETWEEN 22W AND
24W...AND FROM 11N TO 12N BETWEEN 25W AND 27W. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 2N TO 3N TO THE EAST OF 4W...
AND FROM 2N TO 7N BETWEEN 13W AND 16W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 10N TO THE EAST OF 60W.

ONE SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 37W/38W FROM 10N TO 17N. NO
SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS APPARENT.

A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 47W/49W FROM 12N TO 19N. A
WEAKENING MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER IS NEAR 17N47W. COMPARATIVELY LARGER-SCALE CYCLONIC WIND
FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 8N TO 32N BETWEEN 40W AND
60W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PASSES THROUGH THE BORDER OF
SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA/SOUTHEASTERN ALABAMA AND THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE...INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...TO 23N97W
ALONG THE MEXICO GULF COAST.

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE GULF
OF MEXICO TO THE SOUTH OF 27N TO THE EAST OF 90W. THIS CYCLONIC
WIND FLOW IS RELATED TO THE 21N84W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER
THAT IS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 88W...

LOW LEVEL AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING OBSERVED AT
THE FOLLOWING ICAO STATIONS...KMZG...KBBF...KBQX...KVAF...
KEMK...KHQI...KSPR...KMYT...KMDJ...AND KDLP. FAIR SKIES/CLEAR
SKIES AT OR LOWER THAN 12000 FEET ARE BEING REPORTED ELSEWHERE
ACROSS THE AREA.

MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE OBSERVED AT EDINBURG AND MCALLEN
IN THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS...IN PORT LAVACA AND IN VICTORIA.
HEAVY RAIN...MULTILAYERED CLOUD CEILINGS...AND LOW VISIBILITIES
ARE BEING REPORTED IN PALACIOS. LOW LEVEL AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD
CEILINGS ARE FOUND ELSEWHERE ALONG THE TEXAS GULF COAST...EVEN
TO THE HOUSTON METROPOLITAN AREA...TO THE NORTH OF PALACIOS...
INTO SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...INCLUDING ALL
AROUND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. THE SAME LOW LEVEL TO MIDDLE LEVEL
CLOUD CEILINGS CONTINUE INTO COASTAL MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA...
AND TO MARIANNA FLORIDA. MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE
FLORIDA WEST COAST FROM FORT MYERS TO NAPLES TO THE KEY WEST
NAVAL AIR STATION AND MARATHON KEY...INCLUDING A LOW CLOUD
CEILING IN MARATHON KEY. FAIR SKIES/CLEAR SKIES AT OR LOWER THAN
12000 FEET ARE BEING REPORTED ELSEWHERE ACROSS IN THE U.S.A.
GULF OF MEXICO COASTAL PLAINS.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH THE WESTERN FLORIDA
PANHANDLE...INTO THE WEST CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE
OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE
NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS WITH FREQUENT GUSTS TO 30
KNOTS AND SEAS HEIGHTS TO 10 FEET...EXCEPT 8 TO 11 FEET IN THE
STRAITS OF FLORIDA...TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE LINE 23N82W 29N90W.
A SECOND AREA OF INTEREST CONSISTS OF NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 20
TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 8 FEET ELSEWHERE TO THE EAST OF
89W. A THIRD AREA OF INTEREST CONSISTS OF SOUTHEAST WINDS 20 TO
25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 8 FEET TO THE NORTH OF 26.5N TO THE
WEST OF 92W.

...HISPANIOLA...

A 1008 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 16N76W. A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM THE LOW CENTER...ACROSS HAITI...TO 22N69W IN THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN. A SURFACE TROUGH ALSO EXTENDS FROM THE LOW
CENTER TO THE TIP OF THE PENINSULA DE LA GUAJIRA OF NORTHERN
COLOMBIA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 15N TO 20N BETWEEN
70W AND 80W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IN THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 20N TO 23N BETWEEN 69W AND 77W
INCLUDING ACROSS THE BAHAMAS. ISOLATED MODERATE ELSEWHERE FROM
20N TO 25N BETWEEN 68W AND 80W. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN
INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 05/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE
PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...
MIATPTPAN...IS 0.41 IN CURACAO.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
NEAR 21N84W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND
SURROUNDING AREAS SUCH AS CUBA...THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF
MEXICO...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE FLORIDA STRAITS...AND FLORIDA
FROM 17N TO 27N BETWEEN 79W AND 90W. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW FROM A RIDGE IS ON TOP OF HISPANIOLA.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 18N TO CUBA BETWEEN 80W AND THE
COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.

THE GFS FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT GENERAL NORTHEASTERLY
WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. PERIODS
OF SHORT-WAVE INVERTED TROUGHS ARE FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA AT TIMES...THROUGH THE COMPARATIVELY LARGER-SCALE
NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW. THE GFS FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT
HISPANIOLA WILL BE ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF A RIDGE...TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF THE 29N75W ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...FOR
THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT
NORTHERLY WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS
OF THE 48 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. HISPANIOLA WILL BE ON THE
NORTHEASTERN SIDE OF THE WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND AN
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS FORECAST TO END UP
MOVING INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA.
NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL COVER HISPANIOLA FOR THE SECOND
PART OF THE 48 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD... AS A NORTHEAST-TO-
SOUTHWEST ORIENTED TROUGH SETTLES INTO THE AREA.

FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF
THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N60W TO
27N64W. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE...APPARENT IN
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE WEST OF
THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N59W TO 27N65W 27N73W 27N80W. THE
TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N54W TO
29N61W...STATIONARY 29N61W 27N66W 25N68W 24N70W...DISSIPATING
STATIONARY 24N70W 23N75W. A SHEAR AXIS IS ALONG 23N69W 21N76W.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 18N TO CUBA BETWEEN 80W AND THE
COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 21N84W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW
COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND SURROUNDING AREAS SUCH AS
CUBA...THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO...THE GULF OF
MEXICO...THE FLORIDA STRAITS...AND FLORIDA FROM 17N TO 27N
BETWEEN 79W AND 90W. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC
WIND FLOW FROM A RIDGE IS ON TOP OF HISPANIOLA. THE 24-HOUR
RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 05/0000
UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN...IS 0.55 IN BERMUDA.

THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 10N/11N BETWEEN 74W IN COLOMBIA AND
86W IN COSTA RICA...INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...IT IS NOT REALLY EASY TO FIND PRECIPITATION THAT
IS RELATED SOLELY TO THE MONSOON TROUGH. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER
LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS PRESENT WITH THE 21N84W CYCLONIC
CENTER. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS
APPARENT.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 32N19W TO A
30N27W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO A 26N48W CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER. COMPARATIVELY LARGER-SCALE CYCLONIC WIND
FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 8N TO 32N BETWEEN 40W AND
60W.CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN
120 TO 180 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 31N21W 26N35W 27N50W.

SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
NORTH OF 20N TO THE EAST OF 55W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...FOR MORE
DETAILS ABOUT THE WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 8
FEET FROM 16N TO 24N TO THE EAST OF 52W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT


This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net