[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 031748
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EDT SUN NOV 03 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

NONE

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL AREAS OF SIERRA
LEONE NEAR 7N13W AND END NEAR 5N14W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM
5N14W TO 4N25W TO 5N34W TO 3N40W TO THE COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR
2S45W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-7N BETWEEN 10W-
18W...AND FROM 2N-12N BETWEEN 18W-38W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1026 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER ARKANSAS NEAR 35N91W. A SURFACE
RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SW TO CENTRAL TEXAS. 15-25 KT NE WINDS IS
NOTED OVER THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO. STRONGEST WINDS REMAIN
OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM W CUBA NEAR
22N80W TO BEYOND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AT 20N87W. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL FROM 20N-22N
BETWEEN 84W-88W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS
CENTERED OVER MEXICO NEAR 20N101W PRODUCING NORTHERLY FLOW OVER
THE W GULF W OF 90W. THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER
THE E GULF. STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE ENTIRE GULF EXCEPT OVER
THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE
SURFACE HIGH TO MOVE E TO SOUTH CAROLINA WITH SURFACE RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDING TO THE CENTRAL GULF. 20 KT E WINDS OVER THE NE GULF
WILL BE THE DOMINATE WINDS IN THE GULF. ALSO EXPECT CONTINUED
CONVECTION OVER W CUBA AND THE YUCATAN CHANNEL.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM W CUBA NEAR 22N80W TO THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA NEAR 20N87W TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS NEAR 16N88W.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND THE
NW CARIBBEAN FROM 15N-22N BETWEEN 80W-88W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS
NEAR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS FROM 17N-21N BETWEEN 80W-83W. A SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE S BAHAMAS AT 22N73W THROUGH THE WINDWARD
PASSAGE TO AN EMBEDDED 1009 MB LOW AT 17N74W TO N COLOMBIA AT
12N74W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN
FROM 10N TO BEYOND 20N BETWEEN 67W-74W. ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM N OF PUERTO RICO AT 23N66W TO THE MONA PASSAGE AT
18N68W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER PUERTO RICO AND
THE LEEWARD ISLANDS N OF 15N BETWEEN 60W-67W. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...A SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE NW
CARIBBEAN NEAR 16N83W. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED S OF
HISPANIOLA NEAR 17N79W. EXPECT THE COLD FRONT OVER THE NW
CARIBBEAN TO DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ALSO EXPECT THE
SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TO
REMAIN STATIONARY WITH CONVECTION.

HISPANIOLA...

ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS PRESENTLY OVER HISPANIOLA.
EXPECT CONVECTION TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH
POSSIBILITY OF LOCALIZED FLOODING.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 32N69W TO W CUBA NEAR 22N80W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE FRONT. TWO SURFACE
TROUGHS ARE N OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA PRODUCING ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION OVER THE S BAHAMAS FROM 20N-23N BETWEEN 67W-74W...
AND SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION N OF PUERTO RICO FROM 20-22N
BETWEEN 60W-67W. A 1031 MB HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR THE AZORES AT
39N33W. IN THE TROPICS...A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 17N41W TO
6N42W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR
27N60W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE E OF THE CENTER IS PRODUCING
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 18N-32N BETWEEN 50W-60W.
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 14N42W. UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE E OF THE CENTER IS PRODUCING ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION FROM 12N-18N BETWEEN 30W-40W. EXPECT THE W ATLANTIC
COLD FRONT TO MOVE E OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA


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