[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 311042
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT FRI MAY 31 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 14N17W TO
06N30W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
06N30W TO 07N38W TO 04N51W. NUMEROUS MODERATE AND SCATTERED
STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 03N-10N BETWEEN 10W-21W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 05N-08N BETWEEN 21W-34W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS OVER THE WESTERN GULF WITH
AXIS FROM 26N93W TO OVER CENTRAL MEXICO NEAR 21N100W. THIS
TROUGHING...WHILE PRODUCING INSIGNIFICANT WEATHER AT THE
SURFACE...IS PROVIDING MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL STEERING FOR THE
REMNANTS OF BARBARA WHICH HAVE WEAKENED INTO A SURFACE TROUGH
ANALYZED FROM 19N94W TO 22N93W. WHILE A WEAK MID-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY DISSIPATE AND BECOME EMBEDDED
WITHIN SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW OVER THE WESTERN GULF...SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING PRIMARILY TO THE EAST OF THE
TROUGH AXIS S OF 25N BETWEEN 84W-94W. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER
OF THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN GULF IS UNDER WESTERLY UPPER LEVEL
FLOW AND RELATIVELY QUIETER CONDITIONS THIS MORNING. THIS
LARGELY SUPPORTS A THE SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE SW NORTH
ATLC OFFSHORE OF THE CAROLINAS NEAR 33N66W AND EXTENDS W-SW TO
THE NW GULF NEAR 28N95W. THIS RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN
PLACE ACROSS THE GULF THROUGH THE WEEKEND PROVIDING E-SE WINDS.
BY SUNDAY...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH THE TEXAS AND
LOUISIANA COAST AND SLOWLY PROGRESS EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN
GULF COAST AND SE CONUS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN IS UNDER IN THE INFLUENCE OF UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING WITH ONE ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN NEAR
16N83W AND THE OTHER ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER THE SE CARIBBEAN
NEAR 11N62W. THIS RESULTS IN AN OVERALL DIFFLUENT ATMOSPHERIC
ENVIRONMENT. COUPLED WITH SUSTAINED MOIST E-SE LOW-LEVEL FLOW ON
THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE SW
NORTH ATLC...AREAS OF CONVECTION PERSIST THIS MORNING. ONE SUCH
AREA IS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS FROM 12N-23N BETWEEN 75W-
84W. OTHERWISE...OTHER AREAS REMAIN AS ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
TSTMS ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA...AS WELL AS THE SE
CARIBBEAN S OF 13N E OF 64W. FINALLY...THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS
EXTENDS ALONG 10N/11N FROM NORTHERN COLOMBIA TO NICARAGUA AND
HONDURAS. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING OVER THE AREA
S OF 13N BETWEEN 72W-86W. THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN OF E-SE
TRADES IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED TO THE NORTH IN THE SW NORTH ATLC.

HISPANIOLA...
HISPANIOLA REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE EAST OF A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WITH AXIS ALONG 71W. THE DIFFLUENCE
ALOFT COUPLED WITH PERSISTENT MOIST LOW-LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW
IS CONTINUING TO SUPPORT ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE ISLAND THIS
MORNING. LOOKING AHEAD...AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLOWLY
PROGRESSES EASTWARD...LINGERING SUPPORTING DYNAMICS ALOFT WILL
REMAIN OVER HISPANIOLA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS DUE TO PEAK DAYTIME HEATING AND INSTABILITY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
CENTERED NEAR 31N72W WITH AXIS EXTENDING SOUTHWARD TO 20N ALONG
72W. WHILE THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE IS FOUND LARGELY ABOVE
SURFACE RIDGING ACROSS THE SW NORTH ATLC...LIFTING DYNAMICS
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS WITH WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS ACROSS THE REGION FROM 18N-35N BETWEEN 65W-
74W. OTHERWISE...THE SW NORTH ATLC REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF A SURFACE RIDGE W OF 60W WITH SUSTAINED E-SE WINDS IN THE
RANGE OF 10-20 KT. THIS OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO
PERSIST THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. FARTHER EAST...BRIDGING THE
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED RIDGE AND A STRONGER SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE
EASTERN ATLC...IS A FRONTAL TROUGH HIGHLIGHTED BY A STATIONARY
FRONT ANALYZED FROM 33N44W TO 31N46W AND A SURFACE TROUGH
ANALYZED FROM 28N56W TO 33N50W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING
WITHIN 180 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 33N44W TO 29N55W.
FINALLY...THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC ARE
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1034 MB
HIGH CENTERED NE OF THE AZORES NEAR 41N25W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN

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