[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 310004
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT 	THU MAY 30 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 14N17W CONTINUING ALONG 9N21W TO 7N24W WHERE THE ITCZ
BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 6N34W 5N43W 3N49W TO INLAND OVER
SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 4N51W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 3N-7N BETWEEN 2W-20W
INCLUDING PORTIONS OF SW AFRICA AND S OF 10N W OF 51W TO INLAND
OVER SOUTH AMERICA. SMALL CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION ARE FROM 4N-9N BETWEEN 32W-37W AND WITHIN 60 NM OF
LINE FROM 5N46W TO 6N51W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER TROUGH IS SWEEPING E ACROSS THE W GULF WITH THE AXIS
EXTENDING ACROSS MOBILE ALABAMA TO INLAND OVER MEXICO NEAR
TAMPICO. DRY STABLE AIR WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE W GULF
W OF THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS. AN UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER
OF THE GULF WITH THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA NEAR MERIDA TO OVER NE FLORIDA NEAR 30N83W CONTINUING
N OVER THE E CONUS. A STRONG SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE W
ATLC OVER THE SE CONUS GIVING THE GULF SE SURFACE FLOW. THE
REMNANTS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE BARBARA THAT CROSSED S MEXICO OVER
THE PAST 24 HOURS IS IS MOVING INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND AT
30/2100 UTC WAS LOCATED AT 18.5N94.5W. HOWEVER...VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE LOW IS BECOMING SLIGHTLY
ELONGATED INTO THE GULF WATERS. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE S OF 20N
BETWEEN 93W-95W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG THE W COAST OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA EXTENDING FROM 23N89W TO 18N91W WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 90 NM E OF THE TROUGH AXIS S OF
22N. A SECOND WEAKER SURFACE TROUGH IS IN THE NE GULF EXTENDING
FROM THE BIG BEND REGION NEAR 30N84W ALONG THE W COAST OF
FLORIDA TO FLORIDA BAY NEAR 25N82W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 45 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH
AXIS. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING. W ATLC SURFACE RIDGE WILL PERSIST
THROUGH SAT. A LOW LEVEL TROUGH POSSIBLY ATTRIBUTED TO THE
REMNANTS OF BARBARA WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SW GULF OVER THE
WEEKEND AND MEANDER E TOWARDS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA MON AND TUE.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE UPPER RIDGE IN THE E GULF OF MEXICO COVERS THE W CARIBBEAN W
OF 80W WITH BENIGN UPPER LEVEL FEATURES COVER THE REMAINDER OF
THE CARIBBEAN BASIN. THE UPPER RIDGE IS PROVIDING DIFFLUNCE
ALOFT TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE W CARIBBEAN FROM CENTRAL AMERICA TO CUBA BETWEEN 77W-85W
INCLUDING AND JAMAICA. EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE USHERING IN SOME
SCATTERED LOW LEVEL SHOWERS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN
E OF 77W. W ATLC SURFACE RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE TO FRESH
TRADE WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE BASIN THROUGH TUE.

HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DOT THE
ENTIRE ISLAND WITH THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL TOTALS OVER THE
MOUNTAINOUS REGION OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. THESE SHOWERS/
THUNDERSTORMS ARE LESS INTENSE COMPARED TO THE PAST FEW DAYS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM AN UPPER LOW OFF THE NORTH
CAROLINA COAST THROUGH 32N75W TO THE N COAST OF CUBA NEAR
22N77W. THIS UPPER TROUGH IS AMPLIFYING AN UPPER RIDGE THAT
EXTENDS FROM HISPANIOLA TO BEYOND 32N65W. THIS UPPER RIDGE IS
PROVIDING DIFFLUNCE ALOFT TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS N OF 23N
BETWEEN 70W-75W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WITHIN 90 NM OF LINE FROM 21N70W 23N77W TO OVER FLORIDA NEAR
25N80W. BENIGN UPPER LEVEL FEATURES COVER THE REMAINDER OF THE
ATLC BASIN. A PAIR OF WEAK SURFACE TROUGHS ARE IN THE CENTRAL
ATLC EXTENDING FROM 32N52W TO 27N56W AND FROM 31N45W TO 26N47W.
A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE ENTIRE ATLC WITH A WEAKNESS IN
THE VICINITY OF THE ABOVE SURFACE TROUGHS ANCHORED BY SURFACE
HIGHS WELL N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. W ATLC SURFACE RIDGE WILL
PERSIST THROUGH MON. A LOW LEVEL TROUGH DRIFTING ACROSS FLORIDA
WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY BETWEEN FLORIDA AND THE BAHAMAS
THROUGH SAT THEN DISSIPATE SUN. A WEAK TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP E OF THE BAHAMAS SUN AND MON.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW


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