[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 291803
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT WED MAY 29 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...
CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC
OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N.
THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE
IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL GUINEA NEAR
10N14W AND 7N20W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 7N20W TO 5N26W
4N37W AND 3N42W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 5N TO 8N BETWEEN 22W
AND 25W...FROM 3N TO 7N BETWEEN 30W AND 33W...FROM 5N
TO 8N BETWEEN 33W AND 48W...AND FROM 3N TO 10N BETWEEN
48W AND 60W. ISOLATED MODERATE TO THE NORTH OF 2N
TO THE EAST OF 22W.

...DISCUSSION...

FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO...INTO THE NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA...AND INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
WEST OF 60W...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH
COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA...INTO THE EAST CENTRAL GULF
OF MEXICO...TO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND WESTERN CUBA.
THE COVERAGE OF BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS
IS EXPANDING UNDER AN AREA OF ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW
WITH A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. A MIDDLE
LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM EL SALVADOR...
TO WESTERN CUBA...BEYOND 32N73W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN.
THE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 18N TO THE WEST
OF 60W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE
TO STRONG COVERS THE FLORIDA STRAITS...AND FLORIDA TO
THE SOUTH OF 29N. NUMEROUS STRONG IS BETWEEN THE BAHAMAS
AND CUBA 76W AND 78W...AND FROM 19N TO CUBA BETWEEN 78W
AND 80W. SCATTERED STRONG COVERS PARTS OF EASTERN JAMAICA
AND ITS EASTERN COASTAL WATERS. OTHER SCATTERED MODERATE
TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS ELSEWHERE
TO THE SOUTH OF 30N BETWEEN 70W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
AND 82W...ESPECIALLY OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS.
NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION WAS OCCURRING
IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...TO THE
SOUTH OF 19N BETWEEN 82W AND LAND...AT 29/0845 UTC.
THAT PRECIPITATION HAS WEAKENED SINCE THEN. BROKEN TO
OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS AND OTHER
POSSIBLE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS ELSEWHERE IN THE
CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE NORTH OF 15N TO THE WEST OF 79W.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION ALSO IS IN
THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM 23N TO 27N TO THE EAST OF 87W.
THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES...FOR THE PERIOD
ENDING AT 29/1200 UTC...FOR NASSAU IN THE BAHAMAS IS
4.26...AND FOR FREEPORT IS 0.32...ACCORDING TO THE
PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...
MIATPTPAN.

THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...

HURRICANE BARBARA IS IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN.
BARBARA IS MOVING TOWARD THE GENERAL AREA OF THE GULF
OF TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO...ON THE EASTERN
PACIFIC OCEAN SIDE OF MEXICO. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION COVERS MEXICO AND ITS COASTAL WATERS FROM
14N TO 17N BETWEEN 93W AND 96W.

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW
IS MOVING FROM MEXICO TO THE NORTH OF 24N...ACROSS
TEXAS...AND BEYOND. THIS WIND FLOW IS IN RESPONSE
TO A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS IN
THE WESTERN U.S.A. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION HAS
BEEN OCCURRING IN TEXAS TO THE EAST OF 100W. SOME OF
THE PRECIPITATION HAS WEAKENED...AND SOME HAS BEEN
RE-GENERATING WITH TIME SINCE 29/0845 UTC.

BROKEN LOW CLOUDS COVER THE COMPARATIVELY EASTERN-MORE
STATIONS THAT ARE IN THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS. SCATTERED
LOW CLOUDS COVER THE FOUR WESTERN-MORE STATIONS THAT
ALSO ARE IN THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS. BROKEN LOW CLOUDS
COVER THE REST OF THE TEXAS COASTAL PLAINS. THE LOW
CLOUD CEILINGS CONTINUE FROM SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA TO
PERRY FLORIDA. FAIR SKIES/CLEAR SKIES AT OR LOWER THAN
12000 FEET ARE BEING REPORTED IN FLORIDA FROM PERRY TO
THE TAMPA METROPOLITAN AREA. LOW CLOUD CEILINGS ARE
OBSERVED ELSEWHERE IN THE FLORIDA GULF COASTAL PLAINS.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE
TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 88W...

ICAO STATION KDLP IS REPORTING A LOW CLOUD CEILING
OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA. FAIR SKIES/
CLEAR SKIES AT OR LOWER THAN 12000 FEET ARE REPORTED
ELSEWHERE.

THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH
18N60W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO 13N64W IN THE
SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...TO INTO NORTH CENTRAL
VENEZUELA. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION
IS BETWEEN 59W AND 72W.

THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES...FOR THE PERIOD
ENDING AT 29/1200 UTC...FOR TRINIDAD IS 0.35...
ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 9N72W IN WESTERN VENEZUELA...
ACROSS COLOMBIA...TO 9N79W IN PANAMA...BEYOND 10N86W IN
NORTHWESTERN COSTA RICA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
NUMEROUS STRONG IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE SOUTH OF 12N TO THE WEST OF 79W.
NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION WAS COVERING
COLOMBIA AND COASTAL WATERS FROM 7N TO 11N BETWEEN 73W
AND 77W AT 29/0915 UTC. THAT PRECIPITATION HAS WEAKENED.
BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS
AND OTHER POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE ELSEWHER FROM 7N TO 13N
BETWEEN 73W AND 80W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION IS IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 5N TO
9N TO THE EAST OF 86W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...
AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR MORE DETAILS
ABOUT THE 20 TO 25 KNOT NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS AND
8 TO 10 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS FROM 12N TO 18N BETWEEN 71W AND 78W.

HISPANIOLA...

THE GFS FORECASTS FOR 250 MB, 500 MB, AND 700 MB SHOW THAT
A RIDGE OR AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IN SOME CASES...
WILL EXIST ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

EXPECT WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AND SCATTERED SHOWERS TO
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE PEAK DAYTIME HEATING AND
ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY...FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

CURRENTLY...MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY-TO-
NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG IS FROM 17N
TO 18N BETWEEN 70W AND 71W...ABOUT 45 NM TO THE SOUTH
OF THE COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N51W
TO 21N49W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE NORTH OF 20N
BETWEEN 48W AND 70W. A STATIONARY FRONT PASSES THROUGH
32N53W TO 31N55W.

BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW
COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 20N TO THE
EAST OF 40W. A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR
31N18W.

BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS TO THE NORTH
OF 10N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 80W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...FOR
MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE 20 TO 25 KNOT EAST TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 9 FEET
TO THE SOUTH OF THE LINE 22N71W 28N77W.
EXPECT 20 KNOT OR LESS WINDS AND 9 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS
TO THE SOUTH OF THE LINE 14N35W 16N61W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT


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