[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 252338
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SAT MAY 25 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...
CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC
OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N.
THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM GUINEA NEAR 11N15W TO 7N23W. THE
ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 7N23W TO 5N40W TO BRAZIL AT 3N51W. NUMEROUS
STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF W AFRICA FROM 4N-10N
BETWEEN 11W-22W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM
OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 23W-50W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
ALSO E OF TRINIDAD FROM 8N-11N BETWEEN 52W-58W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION CONTINUES OVER E TEXAS E OF
98W PRODUCING LOCALIZED INLAND FLOODING. A COLD FRONT HAS
RECENTLY EXITED THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGING NOW DOMINATES THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH MOSTLY 10 KT E TO
SE WINDS. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE GULF. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE GULF WITH AXIS ALONG
92W. SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE W GULF AND
TEXAS W OF 90W. UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE E GULF.
EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR CONVECTION TO ADVECT OVER THE
BAY OF CAMPECHE FROM S MEXICO. ALSO EXPECT SURFACE RIDGING TO
PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

15-20 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA. THE MONSOON
TROUGH GOES OVER PANAMA AND COSTA RICA PRODUCING SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM 7N-12N
BETWEEN 80W-84W. PATCHES OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FURTHER N OVER INLAND CENTRAL AMERICA FROM NICARAGUA TO
GUATEMALA. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO OVER THE
N CARIBBEAN  N OF 17N FROM THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AT 60W TO JAMAICA
AT 78W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE W
CARIBBEAN W OF 80W. THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVER TROUGH IS OVER
THE CENTRAL AND E CARIBBEAN. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER W CUBA
AND THE NW CARIBBEAN. SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND
SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS ARE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA AND CENTRAL AMERICA. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
FOR CONTINUED CONVECTION AND SHOWERS OVER THE AREA EXCEPT OVER
THE NW CARIBBEAN AND W CUBA WHERE MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER WILL
PERSIST.

HISPANIOLA...

SATELLITE IMAGERY AND LIGHTNING DETECTION SHOWS SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION OVER MOST OF HISPANIOLA. MOIST TRADEWINDS
TOGETHER WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MAKING PRECIPITATION
LIKELY FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LOCALIZED FLOODING IS POSSIBLE
NEAR RIVERS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 32N67W TO 28N70W TO THE
CENTRAL BAHAMAS TO 24N80W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM E
OF THE FRONT N OF 26N. A 1036 MB HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 42N41W.
SURFACE RIDGING IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLANTIC EXCEPT FOR
AN EMBEDDED SURFACE TROUGH FROM 31N40W TO 27N40W. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS N OF 20N BETWEEN 60W-80W
SUPPORTING THE SURFACE FRONT. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER
THE E ATLANTIC N OF 20N E OF 50W TO THE CANARY ISLANDS. EXPECT
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE COLD FRONT TO MOVE E WITH
SHOWERS. ALSO EXPECT CONVECTION TO FORM OVER THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC E OF THE LEEWARD AND WINDWARD ISLANDS TO 55W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA


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