[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 240003
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT THU MAY 23 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 00S50W TO 07N51W MOVING W AT 7-10 KT.
THE WAVE IS W OF THE ITCZ AXIS AND NEARBY AN AREA OF LOW-LEVEL
CYCLONIC TURNING. HOWEVER MODEL GUIDANCE WIND STREAMLINES SHOWS
A WEAK SIGNAL OF THIS WAVE AT THE 700 MB LEVEL. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 03N-08N BETWEEN 47W-52W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 11N15W TO
08N18W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
08N18W TO 03N30W TO 02N47W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 03N-09N BETWEEN 29W-45W. SIMILAR
CONVECTION IS FROM 06N-08N BETWEEN 20W-25W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 2100 UTC...SURFACE RIDGING CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE GULF
WATERS ANCHORED BY A 1017 MB HIGH LOCATED OVER THE N CENTRAL
BASIN NEAR 29N88W. THIS SURFACE RIDGE IS BEING SUPPORTED BY
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS MUCH OF THE BASIN. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW CONTINUES TO PROVIDE AN OVERALL MODERATELY DRY AND STABLE
AIRMASS ALOFT WHICH SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION.
WINDS IN THE RANGE OF 5 TO 15 KT SPREAD ACROSS THE BASIN. MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS BOTH THE
SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
HIGH HUMIDITY CONTINUES OVER THE S CARIBBEAN S OF 13N ASSOCIATED
WITH MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED IN ENHANCEMENTS OF
SATELLITE IMAGERY S OF 15N BETWEEN 70W AND 83W. A MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING SE FROM THE EASTERN CONUS TO THE
BAHAMAS AS WELL AS A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
CARIBBEAN ARE ENHANCING RAINSHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE GREATER ANTILLES. THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOW THE HIGH
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED TO THESE TROUGHINESS IS BEING ADVECTED TO
THE LESSER ANTILLES WHERE RAINSHOWERS HAVE BEEN REPORTED.
OTHERWISE...EASTERLY TRADES IN THE RANGE OF 15-20 KT SPREAD
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN...CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN WHEREAS
LIGHTER WINDS IN THE RANGE OF 5-15 KT DOMINATE THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN. DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...UPPER LEVEL TROUGHINESS
AND HIGH HUMIDITY ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST SUPPORTING RAINSHOWERS
ACROSS THE REGION.

HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY WESTERLY WINDS ALOFT ARE OVER THE ISLAND WITH
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUING TO
ADVECT ACROSS THE ISLAND. BOTH SATELLITE IMAGERY ENHANCEMENTS
AND MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATE THAT THE STRONGEST RAINSHOWERS ARE
OCCURRING IN HAITI THIS EVENING. RAINSHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS
AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGHINESS SUPPORTING THIS CONVECTION
PREVAIL.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING SE FROM THE EASTERN
CONUS TO THE BAHAMAS IS SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH FROM 30N73W
TO 25N76W. RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ASSOCIATED TO THIS
TROUGH FROM 24N-29N BETWEEN 73W-77W. OVER THE N CENTRAL
ATLC...UPPER LEVEL TROUGHINESS IS SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT ALONG
30N44W TO 28N48W TO 30N50W AND A STATIONARY FRONT ALONG 30N38W
TO 26N39W TO 24N43W. NO CONVECTION IS OBSERVED ASSOCIATED TO
THESE FRONTAL BOUNDARIES AT THIS TIME. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC
N OF 15N IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SURFACE RIDGING ANCHORED BY
TWO HIGH CENTERS N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
RAMOS


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